Results for $TLT
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Does Key Reversal in S&P 500 Put the Santa Claus Rally at Risk?

December 20, 2020
It was another difficult week for the greenback, which moved lower against all the major currencies.  The Scandis led it, helped by risk-on appetites and Norway's central bank penciling in its first rate hike around mid-2022.  The hope of a UK-EU deal appears to have spurred short-covering, which lifted sterling to new 2.5-year highs, though p…
Does Key Reversal in S&P 500 Put the Santa Claus Rally at Risk? Does Key Reversal in S&P 500 Put the Santa Claus Rally at Risk? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 20, 2020 Rating: 5
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Consolidation or Correction?

December 13, 2020
France's Giscard d'Estaing passed away in early December.  He who accused the US of enjoying an exorbitant privilege of providing the chief reserve asset lived long enough to see European rates, including the long-end in Spain and Portugal, drop below zero. At the same time, the US dollar fell to two-and-a-half-year lows against many curre…
Consolidation or Correction? Consolidation or Correction? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 13, 2020 Rating: 5
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The Dollar Breaks but it is Not Broken

December 06, 2020
The dollar's decline accelerated and broadened last week.  It convincingly broke out of its recent ranges.  Tactically, we did not expect the sustained break ahead of the December 10 ECB meeting, where the central bank that does not pre-commit pre-committed to easing policy.  The recent string of economic data suggests that while the US activi…
The Dollar Breaks but it is Not Broken The Dollar Breaks but it is Not Broken Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 06, 2020 Rating: 5
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Still Wary of a Breakout

November 29, 2020
The dollar's losses were extended last week, but among the majors, only the New Zealand dollar and the Swedish krona made new highs for the year.  Last week, we were cautious about chasing the greenback lower, and we still are.  Perhaps the bearish dollar view making the front page of the Wall Street Journal before the weekend reflects the ubi…
Still Wary of a Breakout Still Wary of a Breakout Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 29, 2020 Rating: 5
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Beware of the False Break

November 22, 2020
The US dollar had a tough week.  It fell against all the major currencies and most of the emerging market currencies.  The major currencies remained within well-worn ranges.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index rose by around 1%, for its third weekly gain.  It is at its best level in eight months.  The Bannockburn World Currency Index ros…
Beware of the False Break Beware of the False Break Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 22, 2020 Rating: 5
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A Closer Look at the Price Action

November 15, 2020
The most promising news of a vaccine to ward off Covid-19 became a new force shaping the investment climate.  The dollar did well after suffering broadly in the prior week.  The notable exception was the New Zealand dollar, which was bolstered by the unwinding of expectations that the central bank would adopt a negative target rate. Sterling's…
A Closer Look at the Price Action A Closer Look at the Price Action Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 15, 2020 Rating: 5
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Bears Drive the Greenback Lower, but was it Too Quick?

November 08, 2020
The US dollar had one of its worst weeks of the year.  The Dollar Index, heavily weighted toward Europe, fell around 1.7%.  The greenback fell against all the majors, from 1.2% versus the yen to 4% against the Norwegian krone and 3% against the Australian dollar.  Many participants were caught wrong-footed by the dollar's drop and the sharp dr…
Bears Drive the Greenback Lower, but was it Too Quick? Bears Drive the Greenback Lower, but was it Too Quick? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 08, 2020 Rating: 5
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A Technical Word Ahead of Macro Events

November 01, 2020
The dollar had been trading heavily, but it seemed as we entered the last week of October that it was unreasonable to look for a downside breakout given the new acute contagion in Europe and what by all accounts would be a dovish ECB press conference.  Nevertheless, the dollar's strength was more than we anticipated.  While the Reserve Bank of…
A Technical Word Ahead of Macro Events A Technical Word Ahead of Macro Events Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 01, 2020 Rating: 5
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The Greenback does Not Look Ready to Break Down Quite Yet

October 25, 2020
The US dollar had a tough week, falling against all the major and most emerging markets currencies.  The weakness came in the face of higher US yields and a wider premium over most other high-income countries. The US 10-year yield almost 10 bp, the most in a couple of months to settle around 0.84%, after reaching the highest level since early June…
The Greenback does Not Look Ready to Break Down Quite Yet The Greenback does Not Look Ready to Break Down Quite Yet Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 25, 2020 Rating: 5
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