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The Investment Climate: Where We Stand

April 30, 2015
One of the most important forces shaping the investment climate is that the US is closer to beginning to normalize monetary policy than other major countries and regions.  That gap may be measured in years, not months or quarters, and has not reached the apogee.   The Federal Reserve will likely hike rates in the next six months, while other major…
The Investment Climate: Where We Stand The Investment Climate: Where We Stand Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 30, 2015 Rating: 5
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Bond Rout Continues, Euro Marches Higher

April 30, 2015
The euro pullback spurred by the Federal Reserve statement that continued to regard the slowdown as having to been partly caused by transitory factors, was seized upon in Europe as a new buying opportunity.  Support is seen near previous resistance in the $1.1050 area.  The euro extended its recovery, rising to almost $1.1250.  The retracement obj…
Bond Rout Continues, Euro Marches Higher Bond Rout Continues, Euro Marches Higher Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 30, 2015 Rating: 5
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Fed Keeps Options Open

April 29, 2015
The Federal Reserve stuck to its position.  The weakness of in the US economy "during the winter months" was partly a reflection of transitory factors.  The Fed keeps the focus on economic data and does not provide fresh clues into the timing of its lift-off.  The dollar, which was on or near its lows before the Fed's statement is bo…
Fed Keeps Options Open Fed Keeps Options Open Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 29, 2015 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Euro Now?

April 29, 2015
The sharp advance in the euro, through the top of the month and a half long range has thrown many participants for a loop today.  The big overweight position as short euros and long the DAX.  Both positions appear to winding dramatically today.  
What is next for the euro?  Some observers, many who mistrusted the dollar in the first place, say the …
Great Graphic: Euro Now? Great Graphic: Euro Now? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 29, 2015 Rating: 5
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PBOC QE ? Not So Fast

April 29, 2015
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

Press reports suggest that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is considering unconventional monetary policies, including direct purchases of local government bonds and/or some sort of long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) using local government bonds as collateral.  While there is no universal definition of QE, we m…
PBOC QE ? Not So Fast PBOC QE ? Not So Fast Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 29, 2015 Rating: 5
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US Growth Disappoints, Dollar Pays Price

April 29, 2015
The US economy essentially stagnated in Q1, with the economy expanding 0.2% at an annualized rate.  The Bloomberg consensus was for a 1% expansion, but we warned of downside risks.  
The dollar, already under pressure, fell further.  The euro has took out the $1.1050 level and sterling has moved above $1.54.  The dollar failed to sustain gains abov…
US Growth Disappoints, Dollar Pays Price US Growth Disappoints, Dollar Pays Price Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 29, 2015 Rating: 5
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Dollar Remains Under Pressure ahead of FOMC Dollar Remains Under Pressure ahead of FOMC Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 29, 2015 Rating: 5
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Two Observations on US Corporate Earnings

April 28, 2015
The US corporate earnings season is almost half over.  Fears that the US S&P 500 would report the first decline in income since 2009 have eased.

One of the key reasons is that operating margins appear to have improved more than anticipated.  Many had seemed to exaggerate the impact of the dollar's appreciation.  It is true that many corpora…
Two Observations on US Corporate Earnings Two Observations on US Corporate Earnings Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 28, 2015 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: G7 Quarterly GDP

April 28, 2015
This Great Graphic comes from the UK's Office of National Statistics (ONS).  It shows the quarterly performance of GDP since the start of 2008 for the G7 countries.  

Canada has been the strongest of the majors.  The downturn was more shallow and the expansion has been among the strongest, even if not stellar.  The US economic performance has …
Great Graphic: G7 Quarterly GDP Great Graphic: G7 Quarterly GDP Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 28, 2015 Rating: 5
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Market Shrugs Off Poor Japanese and UK Data Market Shrugs Off Poor Japanese and UK Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 28, 2015 Rating: 5
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