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A Nascent Growth Pact Begins to Take Shape

April 30, 2012
The agenda in the euro zone is changing.  The likely outcome of the weekend elections in Greece and France are just as much an effect as a cause of the shift in the agenda.  For the first time since the crisis began, the German insistence on austerity is being complimented by the push for a growth pact.  We recognized ECB President Draghi's s…
A Nascent Growth Pact Begins to Take Shape A Nascent Growth Pact Begins to Take Shape Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 30, 2012 Rating: 5
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Firm Dollar, Eventful Week

April 30, 2012
The US dollar is paring back some of its pre-weekend losses at the start of the new week. Tokyo markets on holiday today and many European centers closed for May Day tomorrow. Asia equities generally were firmer, while European bourses are lower, but modestly so, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 off about 0.25% near midday in London. Financials ar…
Firm Dollar, Eventful Week Firm Dollar, Eventful Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 30, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Royal Wedding

April 29, 2012
Can you believe it has been a year since the royal wedding? Yes an entire 366 days (2012 was a leap year) since this magical event:

So in honor of the anniversary here is a great graphic on weddings:


Great Graphic: Royal Wedding Great Graphic: Royal Wedding Reviewed by magonomics on April 29, 2012 Rating: 5
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Speculative Positioning and Technical Outlook for FX

April 28, 2012
The major feature of the foreign exchange market in recent days has been the resilience of the foreign currencies, despite a stream of poor news.  As noted in last week's review of the Commitment of Traders, technical considerations struck us as more supportive for the major foreign currencies than the macro-economic backdrop.  
The latest Co…
Speculative Positioning and Technical Outlook for FX Speculative Positioning and Technical Outlook for FX Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 28, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Reading, Writing, and Earning Money Great Graphic: Reading, Writing, and Earning Money Reviewed by magonomics on April 28, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: GDP and Longevity

April 27, 2012
Here is an Great Graphic by Stephen Hicks using Gapminder data.  The horizontal axis is GDP per capita at purchasing power parity terms. The vertical axis is life expectancy at birth. 
It illustrates the importance of wealth on longevity.  There are of course other factors.  It suggests that life expectancy is in large a function of the distribu…
Great Graphic: GDP and Longevity Great Graphic: GDP and Longevity Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 27, 2012 Rating: 5
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GDP Pushes Dollar Down Further

April 27, 2012
The foreign currencies are mostly extending their gains against the greenback following the initial estimate of Q1 GDP.  The 2.2% pace was a bit disappointing to market expectations which had appeared to creep higher in recent days. 
The details are a bit better as household consumption was stronger at 2.9% after a 2.1% pace in Q4 11.   This acc…
GDP Pushes Dollar Down Further GDP Pushes Dollar Down Further Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 27, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Remains Heavy Despite News Stream

April 27, 2012
The US dollar remains heavy.  Its early gains in Asia following the S&P 2-step downgrade of Spain and a BOJ that announced an expansion of its balance sheet have been more than reversed by midday in Europe.  Sterling has completely shrugged off its unexpected contraction of Q1 GDP to trade at new multimonth highs today.  
The euro plunged th…
Dollar Remains Heavy Despite News Stream Dollar Remains Heavy Despite News Stream Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 27, 2012 Rating: 5
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S&P Cuts Spain's Rating Two Notches to BBB+

April 26, 2012
S&P cut Spain's sovereign rating by two notches to BBB+ after the NY markets closed. Although Spanish bonds have under-performed this year, with the 10-year yield rising 80 bp, despite the two LTROs and seemingly better appetite for risk, the two notch move caught the short-term market wrong-footed. In thin pre-Asian markets, the dollar…
S&P Cuts Spain's Rating Two Notches to BBB+ S&P Cuts Spain's Rating Two Notches to BBB+ Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 26, 2012 Rating: 5
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European Policy Shifting Before Key Elections

April 26, 2012
ECB President Draghi's support for a growth pact for Europe is important, perhaps under-appreciated by the market. This is not simply a tactic to deflect attention from the IMF's call that the ECB ease monetary policy further. Draghi is among the authoritative voices endorsing what some, mostly left of center, politicians, including the mo…
European Policy Shifting Before Key Elections European Policy Shifting Before Key Elections Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 26, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Mixed, Drivers Indeterminate, Sterling Focus

April 26, 2012
The US dollar is mixed, but sterling remains impressively resilient in the face of disappointing economic data.  It poked through the $1.6200 level but appears to be struggling to sustain a perch.  The yen is the strongest of the majors, but ahead of tomorrow's BOJ meeting that is widely expected to take additional easing steps, it may have l…
Dollar Mixed, Drivers Indeterminate, Sterling Focus Dollar Mixed, Drivers Indeterminate, Sterling Focus Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 26, 2012 Rating: 5
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Quick Note on Bernanke Press Conference

April 25, 2012
The market did not seem to respond much to the FOMC statement or the revised forecasts. It has responded to Bernanke's answer to a question about QE. Bernanke said that the Fed is prepared to do more with its balance sheet. The dollar was sold, stocks and bonds firmed.
Yet the market is getting ahead of itself. Bernanke did not break now grou…
Quick Note on Bernanke Press Conference Quick Note on Bernanke Press Conference Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 25, 2012 Rating: 5
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Coming Growth Pact in Europe

April 25, 2012
Over the past several weeks, both Spain and Italy have indicated they will not reach the initially projected deficit targets. Nearly all the polls suggest that the (moderate) Socialist Hollande will win the second round of France's presidential contest. Greek national elections, also on May 6, may result in a fragmented parliament, underminin…
Coming Growth Pact in Europe Coming Growth Pact in Europe Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 25, 2012 Rating: 5
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Durable Goods Irony

April 25, 2012
Durable goods orders dropped 4.2% in March, more than twice the decline the consensus expected and the largest drop in three years.  Yet, the details are not as poor and, if anything, economists may revise up their forecasts for Q1 GDP, due out Friday. 
The key measure for GDP purposes is shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft…
Durable Goods Irony Durable Goods Irony Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 25, 2012 Rating: 5
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UK Negaitve Surpise, but Apple Trumps

April 25, 2012
The UK reported a disappointing 0.2% contraction in Q1.  The consensus was for a small gain.  since Q4 '11 GDP also contracted (-0.3%), many observers are claiming recession.  Yet that word is among the more slippery one economists use and has not objective meaning.  Two quarters of contracting GDP is a popular notion of recession, but in the…
UK Negaitve Surpise, but Apple Trumps UK Negaitve Surpise, but Apple Trumps Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 25, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Educational Spending by Country Great Graphic: Educational Spending by Country Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 24, 2012 Rating: 5
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More Lull than Turn Around Tuesday

April 24, 2012
A more stable tone in the capital markets is evident today.  The "turn around Tuesday" may simply be a short lull before new incentives emerge.  With the European auctions behind us for the session, and a light North American calendar, a consolidative tone may characterize the remainder of today's 24 hour session.
The US dollar is m…
More Lull than Turn Around Tuesday More Lull than Turn Around Tuesday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 24, 2012 Rating: 5
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Series of Poor News Lifts Dollar

April 23, 2012
The dollar is broadly higher to start the week.   The string of  developments has encouraged risk-off behavior.  Equity markets are lower.  Core bonds are higher.  The high beta currencies, suchas the freely traded emerging market currencies, the Australian and Canadian dollars, the euro, Swedish krona, and of course, the euro itself, are under s…
Series of Poor News Lifts Dollar Series of Poor News Lifts Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 23, 2012 Rating: 5
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The Week Ahead

April 22, 2012
The week ahead will be eventful.  There will be something for everyone.  There is plenty of economic data.  There are a few central bank meetings and there of course will be a heavy dose of politics.
Politics is a good place to begin.  The Dutch government collapsed on Saturday as the Freedom Party withdrew its support for the minority governmen…
The Week Ahead The Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 22, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dutch Government Collapses

April 21, 2012
Seven weeks of government negotiations in the Netherlands to agree on new austerity measures failed on Saturday suggesting the German-led program for Europe is about to take head of another government and this is on the eve of the first round of the French elections, where polls consistently show the Socialist candidate Hollande poised to win the…
Dutch Government Collapses Dutch Government Collapses Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 21, 2012 Rating: 5
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Speculative Positioning in the Currency Futures

April 21, 2012
Speculators did not change their positions very much in the week ending April 17, according to the latest Commitment of Traders report.  We continue to provide a dis-aggregated breakdown of the non-commercial or speculative positioning.  
The general preference among the speculative community has been evident for most of the year continues albeit…
Speculative Positioning in the Currency Futures Speculative Positioning in the Currency Futures Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 21, 2012 Rating: 5
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Happy Earth Day from Marc to Market!

April 20, 2012
Today is earth day, and to celebrate we are going to do two things. The first is to post this iconic millennial cartoon.

The second is to post this great graphic from the Department of Energy on the potential of hydro power from existing non powered dams. Now if you are thinking this topic is familar, it should be. We've previoulsy looked at …
Happy Earth Day from Marc to Market! Happy Earth Day from Marc to Market! Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 20, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Asset Market Correlations

April 20, 2012
Take a look at this Great Graphic.  It is some interesting work by a former colleague at HSBC, Stacy Williams.  These large correlation matrices.  The first is from 2005, pre-Lehman.  It is hard to call that period normal as, it is clear, with the benefit of hindsight, that the seeds of the crisis were already planted.  The second is from this mo…
Great Graphic: Asset Market Correlations Great Graphic: Asset Market Correlations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 20, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Remains Soft, Sterling in Charge

April 20, 2012
The US dollar continues to sport a soft profile, even as the political and economic risk in the euro zone is escalating.  Downside data surprises in the US have not help the greenback's case.  Sterling has led the move against the dollar with a 1.5% advance.   The yen has been the weakest of the majors, off nearly 1%,  perhaps as a function o…
Dollar Remains Soft, Sterling in Charge Dollar Remains Soft, Sterling in Charge Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 20, 2012 Rating: 5
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More Thoughts on the Importance of the French Elections

April 19, 2012
The French premium over Germany rose today to a three-month high. Rumors of a rating downgrade proved wide of the mark, but it reflects the market's anxiety about the outlook for France going forward.
As we have argued, the challenges of the euro zone are not limited to the old periphery of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Clearly, Spain and Ital…
More Thoughts on the Importance of the French Elections More Thoughts on the Importance of the French Elections Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 19, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Little Changed

April 19, 2012
The US dollar is mostly little changed against the European currencies as the North American session is about to begin.  Sterling has retained a firm bias after the risk of a new round of official gilt purchases (QE)was reduced.  It is holding above the $1.60 level and initially extended this week's rally off the successful test on $1.58 and …
Dollar Little Changed Dollar Little Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 19, 2012 Rating: 5
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When the End Began: A True Story

April 18, 2012
This week marks an anniversary that not one in a million knows about and yet, perhaps future generations will recognize it for what it is.  
Twenty seven years ago this week, the US Center for Disease Control reported its first documented case of a robot killing a person (apologies to Isaac Asimov).  It apparently took the CDC a while to come to …
When the End Began: A True Story When the End Began: A True Story Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 18, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: A Woman's Worth

April 18, 2012
Ann Romney's resume or lack thereof has sparked interest in the role women play in the American economy. Following the dissapointing job numbers for March, President Obama commented on the role of women in the economy during a White House conference on the topic.


Yesterday was Equal Pay Day (I know it seems like just yesterday we were celebrati…
Great Graphic: A Woman's Worth Great Graphic: A Woman's Worth Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 18, 2012 Rating: 5
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Sterling and Yen Key Movers

April 18, 2012
Owing to conflicting impulses, the US dollar is mixed today.  Sterling and the yen are the key movers and in opposite directions.  The main impetus behind sterling's advance are the minutes from the BOE's MPC meeting where the dove Posen capitulated, leaving only Miles in favor extending gilt purchases and even then his vote appeared to b…
Sterling and Yen Key Movers Sterling and Yen Key Movers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 18, 2012 Rating: 5
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Crystallizing the Difference

April 17, 2012
The poltical realist in us says the golden rule is "he with the gold makes the rules". Germany has the gold (financial prowess) so it sets the rules as the "first among equals" in the euro zone. It is insisting on the austerity and economic restructuring as the only real way to deal with a debt crisis.
We argued that 3 No'…
Crystallizing the Difference Crystallizing the Difference Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 17, 2012 Rating: 5
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Thoughts about the French Election

April 17, 2012
If the first quarter was about absorption of the ECB's LTRO, the second quarter will be about politics. This weekend's first round of the French presidential election kicks of the quarter that will include:
* Greek national elections, where polls warn that the current coalition government may not be returned, increasing the uncertainty.
*…
Thoughts about the French Election Thoughts about the French Election Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 17, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Buffett Tax and Pell Grants

April 17, 2012
Here is a great graphic from the Obama pinterest page on the impact of the Buffett Tax on Pell Grants, if you are thinking this is familiar it is because we have discussed Pell Grants here and here.
Source: barackobama.com via Barack on Pinterest
Great Graphic: Buffett Tax and Pell Grants Great Graphic: Buffett Tax and Pell Grants Reviewed by magonomics on April 17, 2012 Rating: 5
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Key Take Away: Ranges Hold

April 17, 2012
The most important development in the foreign exchange market is that the ranges held.  Even though the euro edged through $1.3000 yesterday, it quickly bounced back.  Sterling held support near $1.58.  The dollar is holding above the JPY80.00 level.  
European shares rallied, even though Asian shares edged lower (though India's market poste…
Key Take Away: Ranges Hold Key Take Away: Ranges Hold Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 17, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Global Energy Outlook Great Graphic: Global Energy Outlook Reviewed by magonomics on April 16, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Women in the Boston Marathon Great Graphic: Women in the Boston Marathon Reviewed by magonomics on April 16, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Firm, Tensions Mount

April 16, 2012
Rising tensions in Europe continue to be a dominant force in the foreign exchange market, with the euro briefly dipping below the $1.30 level for the first time since mid-February. Another reflection of the tensions is the further recovery of the Japanese yen. The dollar slipped below JPY80.50 in Asia, a level not seen since late-February, despite…
Dollar Firm, Tensions Mount Dollar Firm, Tensions Mount Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 16, 2012 Rating: 5
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Commitment of Traders in Currency Futures (Apr10)

April 14, 2012
The latest Commitment of Traders reports covers the week through April 10.  It shows that the net short positions in the euro, yen and sterling futures grew, while the net long Canadian and Australian dollar and Mexican peso futures positions were trimmed.  
There does appear to have been a shift in market sentiment as the second quarter gets und…
Commitment of Traders in Currency Futures (Apr10) Commitment of Traders in Currency Futures (Apr10) Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 14, 2012 Rating: 5
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A Few Thoughts on China's Wider CNY Band

April 14, 2012
China announced earlier today (April 14) that it will widen the allowable band the US dollar trades in against the Chinese yuan or renminbi.  The new band is 1% from the official fixing rather than the 0.5% that band that has been maintained since May 2007, before which the band was 0.3%.  Although the timing of the announcement was impossible to…
A Few Thoughts on China's Wider CNY Band A Few Thoughts on China's Wider CNY Band Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 14, 2012 Rating: 5
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Six Takeaways from Fed Speak or The Real Troika

April 13, 2012
A number of Fed officials have spoken in recent days and there are a few takeaways that will likely set the general stage for the next FOMC meeting on April 24-25.
First, while there are more regional presidents than Governors on the Federal Reserve Board, the Board still drives Fed decisions. Here the three most important are Bernanke, Yellen and…
Six Takeaways from Fed Speak or The Real Troika Six Takeaways from Fed Speak or The Real Troika Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 13, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Social Protection as Percent of GDP

April 13, 2012
A interesting great graphic from Wikipedia of the expenditures on social protection of a number of European countries.  The results may be a bit surprising.  It suggests that wealthier countries can afford to give their citizens a greater basket of goods thna less wealthy countries.  It also suggests that the periphery spending is not over-the-top…
Great Graphic: Social Protection as Percent of GDP Great Graphic: Social Protection as Percent of GDP Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 13, 2012 Rating: 5
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China Disappointment Buoys Dollar

April 13, 2012
China's Q1 GDP disappointed expectations and market rumors and is the chief driver of the capital markets today.  The official measure of growth was 8.1%.  The consensus was 8.4% before yesterday's rumors of a 9% rise made the rounds and helped lift sentiment--seeing equities rally, gains in the dollar bloc currencies and a weaker dollar.…
China Disappointment Buoys Dollar China Disappointment Buoys Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 13, 2012 Rating: 5
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Three Developments in Spain to Note

April 12, 2012
Spain has been caught in the cross hairs of the market since Prime Minister Rajoy unilaterally announced a relaxation of its fiscal target this year, after missing the target for the last couple of years. He effectively delivered a fait accommpli to the EC and a compromise was reached. Spanish bond have been under pressure with 10-year yield flir…
Three Developments in Spain to Note Three Developments in Spain to Note Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 12, 2012 Rating: 5
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Thoughts on US Data

April 12, 2012
The US reported three data series today, weekly initial jobless claims, producer prices and the trade balance.  The data offered a mixed reading.  The key take away is that economists forecasts for Q1 GDP may be increased after the smaller than expected real trade deficit, and the labor market seems to be stable.  Producer prices remain tame. 
W…
Thoughts on US Data Thoughts on US Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 12, 2012 Rating: 5
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Currencies Churn, but Little Net Movement

April 12, 2012
The US dollar is a softer, but well within the recent ranges.  Over the past five sessions, the G10 currencies are mostly plus/minus 1%, with the yen being the sole exception up 1.6%.   The Australian dollar is leading the move today, spurred by the stronger than expected jump in employment (44k vs consensus 6.5k).   The Australian dollar is toyi…
Currencies Churn, but Little Net Movement Currencies Churn, but Little Net Movement Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 12, 2012 Rating: 5
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The Challenge of Sterling

April 11, 2012
Many participants can single out a currency that is particularly vexing for them. Some say that the yen is the graveyard of all good (and poor) traders. Yet for many currency pairs there are some factors that seem to be more influential than others, even if over time, there is significant variability. For example, the two-year interest rate diffe…
The Challenge of Sterling The Challenge of Sterling Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 11, 2012 Rating: 5
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What are They Thinking?

April 11, 2012
In recent days, policy makers have been most noticeable by their absence. This absence has weakened their credibility and encouraging speculative attention.
The recent string of questionable tactical moves began last week when the Swiss National Bank was unable to prevent a breech of the euro/Swiss floor of 1.20. A modest change in tactics could …
What are They Thinking? What are They Thinking? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 11, 2012 Rating: 5
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Pressures Ease After Alcoa

April 11, 2012
The global capital markets have stabilized following the release of the somewhat better than expected earnings report from Alcoa, which kicks off the US earnings season.  Although Asian shares were marked down, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index off about 0.7%, the European markets are recovering, with financial sector leading the way (at pixel tim…
Pressures Ease After Alcoa Pressures Ease After Alcoa Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 11, 2012 Rating: 5
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Bloomberg On the Economy: Currency Discussion Bloomberg On the Economy: Currency Discussion Reviewed by magonomics on April 10, 2012 Rating: 5
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When Virtuous Cycles Turn Vicious

April 10, 2012
The LTRO's provided more than 1 trillion euros of liquidity. Spanish and Italian banks bought large amounts of sovereign bonds. Recent reports indicate in the Nov-Feb period, Spanish banks bought about 68 bln euros of sovereign bonds and Italian banks bought around 54 bln euros of sovereign bonds (mostly believed to be their own sovereign'…
When Virtuous Cycles Turn Vicious When Virtuous Cycles Turn Vicious Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 10, 2012 Rating: 5
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Four Trade Ideas

April 10, 2012
Short Euro: Since late Jan, the record net short euro futures position was scaled back and as of last Tuesday was at its lowest level in about 20 weeks. This was partly a function of shorts being pared and partly longs being established. As a proxy for trend followers and momentum players, we suspect that market segment is now better balanced to a…
Four Trade Ideas Four Trade Ideas Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 10, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar and Yen Bounce Back

April 10, 2012
As full liquidity returns to the markets for the first time in nearly a week, the US dollar and Japanese yen have rallied.  First though weak short euros and long yen cross positions were squeezed in early Asia, but by the time Europe entered the fray, the moves were well under way, with the euro and sterling coming off and the yen rallying. 
Th…
Dollar and Yen Bounce Back Dollar and Yen Bounce Back Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 10, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Household Expenditures across Major Countries Great Graphic: Household Expenditures across Major Countries Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 09, 2012 Rating: 5
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Testing the SNB's Resolve and Notable Reserve Developments

April 09, 2012
In the holiday thin markets, the Swiss National Banks' resolve to defend the cap in the franc has been challenged. At the end of last week and again today, it appears the CHF1.20 level has been breached. The SNB is believed to have intervened to defend the cap that announced early last September.
The combination of thin markets, increasing te…
Testing the SNB's Resolve and Notable Reserve Developments Testing the SNB's Resolve and Notable Reserve Developments Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 09, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Mixed, 4 Drivers Discussed

April 09, 2012
The US dollar is narrowly mixed as participants continue to digest the significance of the disappointing US jobs data and await full participation to return from what for many is a long holiday weekend. Asian equities were lower for the fourth consecutive session and the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index was off 0.6%.
The Nikkei’s 1.5% decline set the pace …
Dollar Mixed, 4 Drivers Discussed Dollar Mixed, 4 Drivers Discussed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 09, 2012 Rating: 5
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Position Adjustments in Week Thru April 3

April 07, 2012
The week covered by the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed only minor position adjustments were made by the non-commercial or speculative community through April 3.  Given the dramatic subsequent price action, the report may not be particularly revealing.  However, the positioning does suggest that many speculators were leaning the w…
Position Adjustments in Week Thru April 3 Position Adjustments in Week Thru April 3 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 07, 2012 Rating: 5
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Marc to Market Weekend: Renewable Energy in Baseball and the Economics of Engagement Rings. Marc to Market Weekend: Renewable Energy in Baseball and the Economics of Engagement Rings. Reviewed by magonomics on April 07, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Obama understands the working man (and woman) Great Graphic: Obama understands the working man (and woman) Reviewed by magonomics on April 06, 2012 Rating: 5
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CNBC: Dollar after Dow's Dive CNBC: Dollar after Dow's Dive Reviewed by magonomics on April 06, 2012 Rating: 5
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Quick Thoughts on the US Jobs Data

April 06, 2012
One word can summarize today's report:  disappointing.   The 120k rise in the headline figure was roughly half of the whisper figure.   The unemployment rate ticked down to 8.2%, but the details are disappointing.  The household survey upon which it is based showed a decline of 31k jobs and 164k people leaving the labor force. 
The easy expl…
Quick Thoughts on the US Jobs Data Quick Thoughts on the US Jobs Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 06, 2012 Rating: 5
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Jobs Data and the Week in Perspective

April 06, 2012
The pending holidays have drained activity in the global capital markets. The US jobs report may spark some short-lived interest, though the thinness of the market may exaggerate the impact of real orders.
There are 132.7 mln employees in the US. An increase of 0.1 hours of the work week is tantamount to 330k full time equivalents. Earnings grow…
Jobs Data and the Week in Perspective Jobs Data and the Week in Perspective Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 06, 2012 Rating: 5
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Seven Observations about the Yen

April 05, 2012
1. The yen was the weakest of the major currencies in Q1, losing about 7.2% against the dollar. There was a clear shift in both speculative and portfolio flows. The net speculative position in the IMM futures shows a swing from near the largest long position in a decade to the largest net short position since the onset of the financial crisis. In…
Seven Observations about the Yen Seven Observations about the Yen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar and Yen Advance; SNB Challenged

April 05, 2012
The US dollar and yen are continuing the rally that began earlier this week.   The latest leg is more a function of poor developments in the euro zone rather than good news in the US.  The US will report weekly initial jobless claims which are sitting at the lowest levels since the recovery began, but it is the continued sell-off in euro zone bon…
Dollar and Yen Advance; SNB Challenged Dollar and Yen Advance; SNB Challenged Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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Seven Observations about the Euro

April 04, 2012
1. As the world took a step away from the proverbial abyss with the firming of the US economy and the ECB's massive liquidity injections in Q1 the dollar suffered. The re-establishment of positions that were liquidated in Q4 and unwinding of part of the large long dollar positions amassed were key drivers. Those moves appear to have run their…
Seven Observations about the Euro Seven Observations about the Euro Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 04, 2012 Rating: 5
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FOMC Sets Dollar Tone

April 04, 2012
The minutes from the March FOMC meeting have continued to drive the dollar higher, except against the yen, and bonds and stocks lower.  Especially in the context of Bernanke's recent remarks, the, should we say less than dovish, tone to the minutes caught the market wrong footed.
The FOMC in essence tweaked its economic and inflation assessme…
FOMC Sets Dollar Tone FOMC Sets Dollar Tone Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 04, 2012 Rating: 5
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More on Pell Grants More on Pell Grants Reviewed by magonomics on April 03, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Why We Can't Go Back to the Sixties Great Graphic: Why We Can't Go Back to the Sixties Reviewed by magonomics on April 03, 2012 Rating: 5
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More than A Jobs Preview

April 03, 2012
The March US jobs report will be released Friday, Good Friday, when many European countries are on holiday and the US is partially on holiday. Unlike the proverbial tree that may not make a sound, if there is no one to hear it, the data will be important even if the lack of market participation prevents much of a reaction.
Given these circumstan…
More than A Jobs Preview More than A Jobs Preview Reviewed by magonomics on April 03, 2012 Rating: 5
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Japanese Fembots?

April 03, 2012
The concept of genderizing robots is not new. The Jetsons had Rosie, a robotic maid. Star Wars had the dapper C-3PO. And of course Mike Myers gave us fembots:

This interesting article from Time discusses the release of Germinoid F, a Japanese female android. I discussed this back in 2010 in my featured article on the Japanese economy and yen An O…
Japanese Fembots? Japanese Fembots? Reviewed by magonomics on April 03, 2012 Rating: 5
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Spain and Italy Update

April 03, 2012
Spain
The more Spanish officials talk about the budget the less credible it seems. The 10-year yield fell 11 bp on Friday when the budget first presented before the weekend. Now as more detail emerge as it goes to parliament, 10-year yields are rising.
The budget assumes that yields will remain around February levels. The 10-year yield averaged a…
Spain and Italy Update Spain and Italy Update Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 03, 2012 Rating: 5
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FX Today is about the Yen and the Australian Dollar

April 03, 2012
The US dollar is largely within yesterday’s trading ranges against the major foreign currencies today. The main exception is the Australian dollar, where the central bank kept rates on hold but encouraged the market to look for a rate cut next month. The unwinding of long AUD cross positions helped lift the yen after the BOJ reported the first de…
FX Today is about the Yen and the Australian Dollar FX Today is about the Yen and the Australian Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 03, 2012 Rating: 5
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Spain's Budget--Details Tomorrow

April 02, 2012
The details Spain's 2012 budget will be available tomorrow when it is presented to parliament. The government enjoys a large majority in parliament and there is no doubt that the budget will be approved. The importance for investors lies in the details that will provided to the broad stroke presentation made at the end of last week.
Prime Mini…
Spain's Budget--Details Tomorrow Spain's Budget--Details Tomorrow Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 02, 2012 Rating: 5
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Greek Update

April 02, 2012
Following the Greek PSI in March, one would have thought Greece is out of the news until next month's election. However, the risk of another near-term default has increased, putting it back in the spotlight.
Investors who hold Greek bonds that are government by foreign (non-Greek) laws are balking at "voluntary" debt forgiveness tha…
Greek Update Greek Update Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 02, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Marginally Softer

April 02, 2012
The US dollar is marginally softer as North American players return to their posts. The better than expected official Chinese manufacturing PMI (53.1 from 51.0 in Feb and consensus for 50.5) saw steeper losses in the greenback, but the disappointing euro zone manufacturing PMI (47.7 same as the flash but weak details) helped cap the euro in front …
Dollar Marginally Softer Dollar Marginally Softer Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 02, 2012 Rating: 5
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Big Changes for Marc to Market

April 01, 2012
So after much thought I've decided that we are going to change things up here at Marc to Market. After 25+ years I've decided to retire from financial market commentary and focus on my true passion: Pop Culture.
Why make predictions about currencies, interest rates, and sovereign ratings when I can monitor celebrity relationships and weig…
Big Changes for Marc to Market Big Changes for Marc to Market Reviewed by magonomics on April 01, 2012 Rating: 5
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