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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

July 31, 2016
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
EM ended last week on a firm note, helped by the weaker than expected US Q2 GDP report as well as the small bounce in oil.  With the RBA and BOE expected to ease this week, the global liquidity backdrop remains favorable for EM and “risk.”  US jobs report Friday will be very important for EM going forward.
We get our…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2016 Rating: 5
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After this Week, Does August Matter?

July 31, 2016
There are four events this week that will command the attention of global investors.
1. The Reserve of Bank of Australia is first. It is a close call, though the median in the Bloomberg survey favors a cut, including most of the banks in Australia that participate in the poll. 
The case for it is that price pressures are weakening, and credit growth…
After this Week, Does August Matter? After this Week, Does August Matter? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2016 Rating: 5
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Speculators Sell European Currency Futures

July 30, 2016
There does not seem to be a large pattern in the speculative position adjustments in the CFTC reporting week ending July 26. There was only one significant position adjustment (10k of more contracts).  
The euro bears added another 10.3k contracts to their gross short position,which brought it to 221.8k contracts.  This is this is the largest gross…
Speculators Sell European Currency Futures Speculators Sell European Currency Futures Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2016 Rating: 5
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Dollar Hobbled; Technicals Warn of More Losses

July 30, 2016
The US dollar advance was stopped in its tracks by the disappointingly weak Q2 GDP figures. The 1.2% annualized growth rate was roughly half of the pace expected.  The FOMC statement earlier in the week did not leave the impression that a September hike was likely, and with the poor growth numbers, the odds were downgraded further.
Now given the re…
Dollar Hobbled; Technicals Warn of More Losses Dollar Hobbled; Technicals Warn of More Losses Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2016 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

July 29, 2016
Indonesian President Widodo shuffled his cabinetEgypt has requested a three-year $12 bln loan from the IMFJohannesburg Stock Exchange data on investment flows into South Africa was wrongFitch downgraded South Africa’s local currency rating by one notch to BBB- with a stable outlookFitch cut its outlook on Colombia's BBB rating from stable to n…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 29, 2016 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Relative Performance of Bank Stocks--US, Europe, and Japan

July 29, 2016
This Great Graphic was composed on Bloomberg, and it shows the performance of bank share indices of the major bourses.  The time series are indexed to 100 at the start of this year.  
The green line, which is off about 6.6% this year is the MSCI US bank index.   The yellow line is the MSCI European bank index. It is off 25% this year.   The white l…
Great Graphic: Relative Performance of Bank Stocks--US, Europe, and Japan Great Graphic: Relative Performance of Bank Stocks--US, Europe, and Japan Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 29, 2016 Rating: 5
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Kuroda Hesitates, Yen Advances, Focus Turns to Europe and North America

July 29, 2016
Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda appears to be the central banker that the markets have the most difficulty in reading.  The activist Governor provide the barest of tweaks to what is by nearly any reckoning among the most aggressive monetary policies by a high income economy.  Moreover, much of the important data reported during the BOJ's meeting…
Kuroda Hesitates, Yen Advances, Focus Turns to Europe and North America Kuroda Hesitates, Yen Advances, Focus Turns to Europe and North America Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 29, 2016 Rating: 5
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