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March 2022 Monthly

February 28, 2022
March will be a pivotal month. Three key elements shape the investment climate: geopolitics, easing of Covid pressures in Europe and North America, and the continued monetary policy response. Russia's threat to Ukraine had been simmering for several weeks before the February 11 warning by the US that an attack was imminent.  It became a signif…
March 2022 Monthly March 2022 Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 28, 2022 Rating: 5
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Knee-Jerk Panic Pared

February 28, 2022
Overview:  Bold new sanctions on Russia and more weapons for Ukraine were announced over the weekend.  Russia responded by raising the readiness of its nuclear forces. As a result, the risk-on seen ahead of the weekend has been reversed.  When then-US President Trump ordered the assassination of Iran's Major-General Soleimani in January 2020, …
Knee-Jerk Panic Pared Knee-Jerk Panic Pared Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 28, 2022 Rating: 5
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The Dollar and Yen's Safe Haven Appeal Slackens

February 27, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine overwhelmed other drivers of the foreign exchange market.  When everything was said and done last week, the odds of a 50 bp hike by the Federal Reserve in the middle of March was little changed slightly above 25%. The odds of a 50 bp hike by the Bank of England have been reduced from a little over 60% before the US…
The Dollar and Yen's Safe Haven Appeal Slackens The Dollar and Yen's Safe Haven Appeal Slackens Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 27, 2022 Rating: 5
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War and the Macro Backdrop

February 26, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine was well tipped by US intelligence. It warned that an attack could take place at any time on February 11th turning the simmering issue into a generalized market force. The dramatic response seemed to be an over-reaction compared with what happened when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and when it annexed Crimea in 20…
War and the Macro Backdrop War and the Macro Backdrop Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 26, 2022 Rating: 5
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The Fog of War

February 25, 2022
Overview:  When Russia did what the US has been warning about since February 11, the markets seem to have an exaggerated response.  The recovery in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, the $90 pullback in gold from its highs, a $7 retreat in the price of April WTI, set the tone for today's action.   In Asia Pacific, Hong Kong was the only market that f…
The Fog of War The Fog of War Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 25, 2022 Rating: 5
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Russia's Military Action Shakes Markets

February 24, 2022
Overview: News that the separatists were calling on Moscow for military assistance began the risk-off move, and Russia hitting targets across Ukraine has rippled across the capital markets.  Equites have been upended.  Most bourses in the Asia Pacific region were off 2%-3%, while the Stoxx 600 in Europe gapped lower and is off around 3.5% in late …
Russia's Military Action Shakes Markets Russia's Military Action Shakes Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 24, 2022 Rating: 5
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