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Great Graphic: Baseball Signs

January 31, 2012
Check out this great graphic from Edward Tuft. Click here for a better version. Anyone else think the 3rd basemen needs to be kept in the loop better?


Basically this is the male version of this:
Great Graphic: Baseball Signs Great Graphic: Baseball Signs Reviewed by magonomics on January 31, 2012 Rating: 5
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Short Note on ISM Manufacturing Survey

January 31, 2012
The Institute for Supply Management reports its January manufacturing survey on February 1.  The Bloomberg consensus expects a small increase to 54.5 from 53.9.  This would be the highest reading since last June.  Yes, as the economy picked up some steam after a dismal first half, the manufacturing ISM trended lower.  
Nevertheless, many cite this …
Short Note on ISM Manufacturing Survey Short Note on ISM Manufacturing Survey Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 31, 2012 Rating: 5
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European Sovereign Supply and LTRO

January 31, 2012
This is a fairly busy week for European sovereign supply. Roughly 22 bln euros will be raised. This includes the 7.5 bln euros Italy raised yesterday by selling bonds and the 2.5 bln euros raised by Belgium in bills. Germany is seeking to raise 5 bln euros by selling 10 year bonds tomorrow and Portugal will sell bills. France and Spain plan on sel…
European Sovereign Supply and LTRO European Sovereign Supply and LTRO Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 31, 2012 Rating: 5
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Summit Concludes, Euro Resilient, Greece Unresolved

January 31, 2012
The first European Summit of the year ended with a shroud of uncertainty hanging over Greece.  Officials are sounding an optimistic note that an agreement will be struck before the end of the week, but an agreement will l simply shift the focus from the terms to the participation rate and the recognition that even a haircut of some 70% on a net pr…
Summit Concludes, Euro Resilient, Greece Unresolved Summit Concludes, Euro Resilient, Greece Unresolved Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 31, 2012 Rating: 5
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Here's to You Mr. Robinson

January 31, 2012
Today would have been Jackie Robinson's 92nd Birthday. Now he may not have played for my team (despite my better judgement I am a life long Cubs fan, I wish I could say my son has learned from my mistakes but he is a Mets fan) but I think we can all agree Jackie was a pretty inspirational athlete and a major player in the civil rights movement…
Here's to You Mr. Robinson Here's to You Mr. Robinson Reviewed by magonomics on January 31, 2012 Rating: 5
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Canada and Australia Update

January 30, 2012
Fitch left the ratings and outlooks of Canadian banks unchanged earlier today, while placing Australia's four largest banks on negative credit watch. The main reason for warning on Australia but not Canada is that Australian banks are more reliant on foreign wholesale funding.
Canadian banks also have a lower loan/deposit ratio and a relativel…
Canada and Australia Update Canada and Australia Update Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 30, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Energy Expenditures Per Capita & California

January 30, 2012
This Great Graphic from the US Department of Energy examines 2009 Energy Expenditure per person by state. (You can check out the graphic in more detail at the Department of Energy site here).
In state by state graphics like this one I like to look at California. Not only is it the largest state, but I like to think it serves as a good sample for th…
Great Graphic: Energy Expenditures Per Capita & California Great Graphic: Energy Expenditures Per Capita & California Reviewed by magonomics on January 30, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Comes Back Bid

January 30, 2012
The dollar has begun the new week bid.   Short-term momentum traders were leaning the wrong way and why not, the euro gained each day last week and one global bank came out with a report over the weekend calling for additional euro gains. 
Key support for the euro is seen near $1.3070-80 and a convincing break is needed to boost confidence that a …
Dollar Comes Back Bid Dollar Comes Back Bid Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 30, 2012 Rating: 5
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PSI: So What? So Yesterday

January 29, 2012
The market has been focused on the negotiations over the private sector involvement in reducing Greece’s debt burden. The optimism that a deal would be reached shortly was one of the factors that helped the euro gain around 4 cents against the dollar in recent days. Although progress was reported over the weekend, contrary to some expectations, …
PSI: So What? So Yesterday PSI: So What? So Yesterday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 29, 2012 Rating: 5
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Commitment of Traders and Other Flows

January 28, 2012
Confounding expectations, the net speculative short euro position grew over the week to January 24, despite the single currency's three cent advance.   The net speculative short position at the IMM reached a new record of 171.3k contracts.  Thus far over the course of the month, the net short position has grown by 44k contracts, a little more …
Commitment of Traders and Other Flows Commitment of Traders and Other Flows Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 28, 2012 Rating: 5
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Lisbon Woes, Headed on the Road to Athens

January 27, 2012
European officials have insisted that Greece is unique. Many market participants do not believe them. Portugal appears to be headed down that same road. While we have warned in the past of risks that Portugal would need a second aid package, it is only since S&P joined the other major rating agencies in rating Portuguese debt below investment …
Lisbon Woes, Headed on the Road to Athens Lisbon Woes, Headed on the Road to Athens Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 27, 2012 Rating: 5
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A Few Thoughts About Q4 US GDP

January 27, 2012
US Q4 GDP disappointed in the headline at 2.8% instead of 3%, but the real disappointment is in the details.  The key there is inventories, where the preliminary figures showed rose $56 bln at an annual pace, adding 1.9 percentage points to GDP.    This build up may weigh on Q1 12 GDP as inventories are unwound.   Equipment and software spending r…
A Few Thoughts About Q4 US GDP A Few Thoughts About Q4 US GDP Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 27, 2012 Rating: 5
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Euro at Cross Roads?

January 27, 2012
A well received Italian bill auction coupled with hopes of a near-term Greek deal has seen the euro recover from the slide in North America yesterday.  The euro came within about 20 points of yesterday's high after slipping to just below $1.3080 in Asia.  Short-term technical indicators warn the euro is over-extended a convincing break of that…
Euro at Cross Roads? Euro at Cross Roads? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 27, 2012 Rating: 5
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Deja Vu All Over Again?

January 26, 2012
There is an eerie sense we have been here before.  The dollar rallied following the announcement of QE2 in early November 2010.  The strength continued into early 2011.  Then Trichet began threatening rate hikes.  At first it seem ludicrous--that his tough talk was going to get the market's to do his heavy lifting, though as we know, the ECB d…
Deja Vu All Over Again? Deja Vu All Over Again? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 26, 2012 Rating: 5
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Reuters TV: Fed Watchers See No New Stimulus Reuters TV: Fed Watchers See No New Stimulus Reviewed by magonomics on January 25, 2012 Rating: 5
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FOMC Statement --Pushes Out to Late 2014 First Hike

January 25, 2012
The FOMC statement (see video from the Fed to the left or here) is slightly more dovish than expected and this has seen a knee jerk drop in the dollar and US equities bounce. These are likely to prove short lived moves. The key change was in the "exceptionally low rate" guidance. It has shifted from mid-2013 to at least late 2014. Many h…
FOMC Statement --Pushes Out to Late 2014 First Hike FOMC Statement --Pushes Out to Late 2014 First Hike Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 25, 2012 Rating: 5
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Will the ECB Take a Haircut?

January 25, 2012
It appears that over the past 24 hours or so, the ECB has come under pressure to participate in Greece's PSI. Reports that the IMF were pushing for this has quickly been denied. The ECB has also formally rejected participating. Nevertheless, Dallara, representing private sector creditors, is insisting that all creditors, private and public, s…
Will the ECB Take a Haircut? Will the ECB Take a Haircut? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 25, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Bid

January 25, 2012
The dollar's downside momentum has faded since the start of the week and short-term momentum traders have to adjust.  There does not seem to be a precipitating factor.  The German IFO was mostly better than expected and while the UK Q4 GDP was off 0.2% rather -0.1% may could have been a factor, but sterling is holding in better.  Key support …
Dollar Bid Dollar Bid Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 25, 2012 Rating: 5
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The Federal Reserve and the New Transparency

January 24, 2012
At the conclusion of the FOMC meeting, the usual statement will be issued, but what is capturing the attention of the market is that the Fed will also publish the expected path of the Fed funds rate and the expected timing of the first hike.  
The statement itself is important.  It has become largely formulaic.  The FOMC provides an assessment of t…
The Federal Reserve and the New Transparency The Federal Reserve and the New Transparency Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 24, 2012 Rating: 5
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Euro Bounce: Now What?

January 24, 2012
A January 9th post Timing and Magnitude of Euro Bounce warned that the euro was within about 1% of what we expected to be a near-term bottom before staging a recovery. The euro declined almost another half a cent after our note and subsequently rallied 4 cents at today's high.
We suggested that the correction could carry the euro to $1.2950-$1…
Euro Bounce: Now What? Euro Bounce: Now What? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 24, 2012 Rating: 5
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Not Too Late for Turn Around Tuesday

January 24, 2012
The US dollar is turning in a mixed performance today.  It is firmer against the dollar-bloc and is at the highs for the year against the yen.  It is mostly firmer against emerging market currencies, but is modestly softer against the euro and sterling.  
Many observers will  posit the euro's resilience today to the flash PMI reading for Janua…
Not Too Late for Turn Around Tuesday Not Too Late for Turn Around Tuesday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 24, 2012 Rating: 5
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He shall from time to time.... State of the Union by Numbers

January 23, 2012
Tomorrow Obama will give the State of the Union and I (or rather my infinitely wiser webmaster) thought it would be appropriate to share some interesting figures about the annual address.

1790: When the first State of the Union was given by George Washington (shocking, I know) on January 8th.

1,089: Number of words in the shortest (word wise) State …
He shall from time to time.... State of the Union by Numbers He shall from time to time.... State of the Union by Numbers Reviewed by magonomics on January 23, 2012 Rating: 5
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Euro Races Higher

January 23, 2012
The euro is racing higher after initially gapping lower in Asia on indications that the private sector involvement in Greece had hit another stumbling block ahead of today's EU finance minister summit.  It has moved above the $1.30 area in the European morning, for the first time since January 4.  There are a few consideration prompting the co…
Euro Races Higher Euro Races Higher Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 23, 2012 Rating: 5
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Seven Observations about Commitment of Traders in FX

January 22, 2012
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission requires futures traders to identify whether they have an underlying business interest (commercials) or if they don't (non-commercials). Commercial positions are thought to be banks or businesses hedging. Non-commercials accounts are understood as a proxy for speculators.
Market participants tend to foc…
Seven Observations about Commitment of Traders in FX Seven Observations about Commitment of Traders in FX Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 22, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Wind Resource Potential

January 20, 2012
Since the Solar Energy Potential Map is the most popular post on the blog, I thought we should look at another form of renewable energy: Wind.
This map from the Department of Energy (you can check it out in more detail here) depicts the predicted mean annual wind speeds at 80 meters above ground (a 24 story building). According to the website, Are…
Great Graphic: Wind Resource Potential Great Graphic: Wind Resource Potential Reviewed by magonomics on January 20, 2012 Rating: 5
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Grokking the Canadian Dollar in Three Correlations

January 20, 2012
I have written recently of the euro's correlation with the S&P 500.  I concluded that although the correlation has weakened, it remains elevated.  We vigilantly monitor that relationship because it seems that it is representative of the risk-on/risk-off rubric that still is so influential for both short-term traders and longer term investo…
Grokking the Canadian Dollar in Three Correlations Grokking the Canadian Dollar in Three Correlations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 20, 2012 Rating: 5
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Marginalization of Western Europe?

January 19, 2012
Sentiment toward the euro appears as negative as it has been since the joint intervention a little more than eleven years ago, even if the exchange rate is considerably higher. The net speculative position at the IMM is record short the euro.

US money markets have dramatically cut their exposure to European bank paper. This has been widely reporte…
Marginalization of Western Europe? Marginalization of Western Europe? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 19, 2012 Rating: 5
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The Importance of the Mario Brothers

January 18, 2012
They are not really brothers, but Mario Draghi and Mario Monti are countrymen and are doing a great deal to respond to the European debt crisis in ways that were unimaginable until very recently. 
Draghi’s accomplishments are of more recognizable. He is the unlikely head of the ECB. The job was supposed to go to a German’s Weber, who in a huff,…
The Importance of the Mario Brothers The Importance of the Mario Brothers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 18, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: EU Unemployment

January 18, 2012
This is a pretty cool infographic (I had to make it small on the blog, but it's big once you click) about unemployment in the EU. For clarification (via another Infographic) of which countries are in the Euro Zone vs. European Union vs. European Economic Area check out this post.
Not surprisingly, Greece and Spain have the highest unemployment…
Great Graphic: EU Unemployment Great Graphic: EU Unemployment Reviewed by magonomics on January 18, 2012 Rating: 5
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Not Groundhog Day in FX, but..

January 18, 2012
North American players sold into yesterday's Europe-led euro rally and today European operators drove the euro back above the $1.28 level and managed to take out yesterday's highs to reach almost $1.2850 near pixel time.   The ostensible driver were reports that the IMF is considering boosting its resources with $1 trillion cited a…
Not Groundhog Day in FX, but.. Not Groundhog Day in FX, but.. Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 18, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Made in China...or Not?

January 17, 2012
Came across this graph in an article published on The Big Picture on the U.S. Content of "Made in China". They say: "Although globalization is widely recognized these days, the U.S. economy actually remains relatively closed. The vast majority of goods and services sold inthe United States is produced here. In 2010, imports were abo…
Great Graphic: Made in China...or Not? Great Graphic: Made in China...or Not? Reviewed by magonomics on January 17, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Government Debt in Europe

January 17, 2012
My wise beyond her years webmaster just told me about Google Public Data Explorer, which allows you to build interactive charts of public data. This is no doubt going to be my new favorite toy. Check out the below graphic which shows General Goverment Deficit/Surplus as % of GDP on the Y axis, Goverment Debt as % of GDP on the X axis, and the Gove…
Great Graphic: Government Debt in Europe Great Graphic: Government Debt in Europe Reviewed by magonomics on January 17, 2012 Rating: 5
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Euro and S&P 500 Correlations Revisited

January 17, 2012
Over the course of 2011, I had often posted on the correlation with between the euro and the S&P 500.   My last note was mid-December. While recognizing that the 60 day rolling correlation (based on percent change) was still firm near record highs (set Dec 2 near 0.85) we noted that the 30-day correlation had begun slipping. We suggested that …
Euro and S&P 500 Correlations Revisited Euro and S&P 500 Correlations Revisited Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 17, 2012 Rating: 5
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Correction Tuesday?

January 17, 2012
China's slew of economic data came in better than expected this coupled with successful bill auctions by Spain, Greece and Belgium and a very strong German ZEW (-21 v -53.8) is rekindling the appetite for risk today.  The euro is up over a cent and is running into resistance near $1.28.  More generally, major and emerging market currencies are…
Correction Tuesday? Correction Tuesday? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 17, 2012 Rating: 5
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I Have A Dream Speech I Have A Dream Speech Reviewed by magonomics on January 16, 2012 Rating: 5
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More Thoughts on the Greece's PSI

January 16, 2012
Most accounts suggest that the talks over the private sector involvement in Greece's second aid package broke down, but rarely has a break down been coupled with immediate plans to resume negotiations.  What is really better characterized as a pause will last two business days and negotiations are expected to resume Wednesday, January 18.  

A…
More Thoughts on the Greece's PSI More Thoughts on the Greece's PSI Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 16, 2012 Rating: 5
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Nervous Consolildation, Waiting for Other Shoe to Drop

January 16, 2012
The US dollar is trading within the ranges that were seen prior to the weekend as the market awaits fresh developments. The market remains apprehensive as additional rating fallout is expected, ahead of a resumption of Greek PSI talks and this week's European sovereign supply (estimated 17 bln euros of bonds).
Global equities are mostly lower.…
Nervous Consolildation, Waiting for Other Shoe to Drop Nervous Consolildation, Waiting for Other Shoe to Drop Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 16, 2012 Rating: 5
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Need some entertainment when the markets are closed? Need some entertainment when the markets are closed? Reviewed by magonomics on January 15, 2012 Rating: 5
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CNBC: France Downgrades More to Come CNBC: France Downgrades More to Come Reviewed by magonomics on January 13, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Big Mac Index

January 13, 2012
The Economist has come out with an updated version of the popular Big Mac Index, which is based on the theory of Purchasing Power Parity.
This theory states that in the long run, exchange rates will adjust so that a basket of goods costs the same in each country. The "real exchange rate" is then equivalent to the nominal exchange rate adj…
Great Graphic: Big Mac Index Great Graphic: Big Mac Index Reviewed by magonomics on January 13, 2012 Rating: 5
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PSI, Weekend Meetings in Athens, New Savings Potential?

January 13, 2012
The negotiations over the private sector involvement (PSI) in Greece are reportedly making progress. The resolution of this issue is essential for the second Greek aid package and that in turn is important to secure the next aid tranche from the first package. The tranche is needed before late March when Greece has a large (14.5 bln euro bond mat…
PSI, Weekend Meetings in Athens, New Savings Potential? PSI, Weekend Meetings in Athens, New Savings Potential? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 13, 2012 Rating: 5
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Rumor Bought, Fact Sold, and Other FX Developments

January 13, 2012
The euro extended its recovery in early Europe but reversed course after the lukewarm Italian bond auction.  Italy raised the funds it sought and yields did fall at the shorter term auction, but increase at the longer term and the bid-covers were on the low side.   
In some ways, this is the best Italy might be able to hope for given that the marke…
Rumor Bought, Fact Sold, and Other FX Developments Rumor Bought, Fact Sold, and Other FX Developments Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 13, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Solar Beats the Bank

January 12, 2012
Here is another great graphic. It shows the payoff of putting $20,000 in a savings account with 4% interest or investing in solar panels for ones home over 18 years (aka the amount of time it takes to raise a child to college aged) in various states (with different amounts of sun and state incentives). You can check it out here.
Great Graphic: Solar Beats the Bank Great Graphic: Solar Beats the Bank Reviewed by magonomics on January 12, 2012 Rating: 5
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Brief Thoughts about Friday's US Trade Report

January 12, 2012
The US reports November trade figures on Friday. The consensus expects a modest widening of the deficit to $45 bln from $43.5 bln in Oct. The risk is that there is greater deterioration than the market anticipates.
On the broadest level, growth differentials warn of deterioration. The US economy appears to have grown at its fastest clip of the 2…
Brief Thoughts about Friday's US Trade Report Brief Thoughts about Friday's US Trade Report Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 12, 2012 Rating: 5
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Draghi Fans Euro Short Covering

January 12, 2012
Encouraged by the better than expected sovereign auctions today (Spain and Italy), softer than expected US data (weekly jobless claims and retail sales) and a comments from ECB's Draghi, the euro has recovered yesterday's losses and is testing resistance in near $1.2820 (that extends toward $1.2850). A failure to convincingly break this ar…
Draghi Fans Euro Short Covering Draghi Fans Euro Short Covering Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 12, 2012 Rating: 5
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RT Capital Account: Outlook for the Dollar, Euro, and Yen in 2012 RT Capital Account: Outlook for the Dollar, Euro, and Yen in 2012 Reviewed by magonomics on January 12, 2012 Rating: 5
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Successful Auctions Lift Tone, but...

January 12, 2012
Better than expected reception to Spain's bond auction and Italy's bill sale have spurred "risk-on" with the euro moving into the range that appeared to have been broken yesterday and equity and emerging markets trading higher, though as discussed below, the gains may not be sustained through North America today.   It is too earl…
Successful Auctions Lift Tone, but... Successful Auctions Lift Tone, but... Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 12, 2012 Rating: 5
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In Defense of Renewable Energy

January 11, 2012
Last week I did a Great Graphic post on the Potential of Solar Energy in the United States. As with all my posts it got picked up over at Business Insider and ignited quite a slew of comments. (You can check out the graphic at the Department of Energy's website.)
While most of the comments were in favor of solar, some were not. In response t…
In Defense of Renewable Energy In Defense of Renewable Energy Reviewed by magonomics on January 11, 2012 Rating: 5
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Thoughts Ahead of Spanish and Italian Bond Auctions

January 11, 2012
Spain and Italy begin this year's funding operations with bond auctions tomorrow and Friday. Although the euro is bouncing along its recent trough against not only the dollar, but against many of the other major currencies as well, there has been a modest improvement in some of the measures the market has focused on as metric of stress.
The 3-m…
Thoughts Ahead of Spanish and Italian Bond Auctions Thoughts Ahead of Spanish and Italian Bond Auctions Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 11, 2012 Rating: 5
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Euro Slides Ahead of BOE and ECB Meetings

January 11, 2012
The euro was recovering in early Europe, moving back toward the upper end of its recent narrow range and it reversed course sharply, triggering stops along the way as it dropped nearly a cent to $1.2695.  The technical failure yesterday at $1.2820 may also have been more telling.  Despite the extend positioning and sentiment, what could have turne…
Euro Slides Ahead of BOE and ECB Meetings Euro Slides Ahead of BOE and ECB Meetings Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 11, 2012 Rating: 5
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Surprising International Comparison of Average Hours Worked

January 10, 2012
The conventional narrative about the European debt crisis largely accepts the contention that the periphery of Europe have different work habits and these account to a large extent the economic and financial problems. Yet often time the discussion takes on such ethnocentric dimensions that sometimes it is difficult to see what is real.
This chart:…
Surprising International Comparison of Average Hours Worked Surprising International Comparison of Average Hours Worked Reviewed by magonomics on January 10, 2012 Rating: 5
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Brief Note on Big Surge in US Consumer Credit

January 10, 2012
Late yesterday the US reported the biggest jump in consumer credit a decade. It reinforces the signal of the gradual healing of the labor market and the resilience of the US consumer. The report increases the risk that the November personal consumption expenditures are revised higher from the initial 0.1% estimate.
Consumer credit jumped $20.4 bln …
Brief Note on Big Surge in US Consumer Credit Brief Note on Big Surge in US Consumer Credit Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 10, 2012 Rating: 5
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Mild Corrective Forces Unfold

January 10, 2012
The light news stream, adequate bill auction receptions and comments from Fitch suggesting France's AAA rating is secure this year encouraged short-term players to take profits.  However, sentiment is still wholly euro negative and a large investment bank was out today with new calls to sell the euro. Resolution of credit watch decisions are s…
Mild Corrective Forces Unfold Mild Corrective Forces Unfold Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 10, 2012 Rating: 5
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Yahoo Finance: 2012 Year of the Dollar Yahoo Finance: 2012 Year of the Dollar Reviewed by magonomics on January 09, 2012 Rating: 5
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Timing and Magnitude of Euro Bounce

January 09, 2012
Sentiment is as extreme as imaginable toward the euro, where many still expect it not to survive in its current configuration. The net speculative position at the IMM is record short euros. The single currency's five week losing streak against the dollar is the longest in a year and a half and pushed the euro to sixteen month lows earlier toda…
Timing and Magnitude of Euro Bounce Timing and Magnitude of Euro Bounce Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 09, 2012 Rating: 5
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Euro Pops to Start Week

January 09, 2012
In a Tokyo-less Asian session, the dollar had begun the week bid, but quickly reversed in early Europe, which saw the euro rise more than a cent off the $1.2666 low.  It was largely a short-covering bounce, but as North American players take their posts, it is running out of steam, unable to take out the $1.28 level , which would and trigger anoth…
Euro Pops to Start Week Euro Pops to Start Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 09, 2012 Rating: 5
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Korea

January 08, 2012
Last month marked the 20th anniversary of the collapse of the Soviet Union. It also marked Russia’s ascension to the World Trade Organization. Its recent aspirations had been frustrated largely by a single country in recent years—Georgia. There is a sense that a new era is at hand.
The end of the Cold War, the rise of China, and the collapse of the…
Korea Korea Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 08, 2012 Rating: 5
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European Bond Supply and Greece's Trojan Horse

January 06, 2012
European sovereigns return to the capital markets more substantially next week as 2012 issuance gets under way. Between bills and bonds, around 35-40 bln euros will be sold. Maturing issues and coupon payments will cover about three-quarters of the bond issuance.
The market's focus is on the Spanish and Italian bond offerings in the second half…
European Bond Supply and Greece's Trojan Horse European Bond Supply and Greece's Trojan Horse Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 06, 2012 Rating: 5
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Beyond Jobs

January 06, 2012
The US jobs report is the main economic release today.  In recent months, better than expected employment reports have spurred risk on trading and this has been dollar negative.  Given the ADP report, despite the December skew in that time series, market expectations appear to have crept higher and it will take a stronger than expected number of g…
Beyond Jobs Beyond Jobs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 06, 2012 Rating: 5
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Why Spain may be More Worrisome than Italy

January 05, 2012
Most market participants are more concerned about Italy's debt burden than Spain's. Since July '11, Italy's benchmark 10-year yield has risen through Spain's. In August '11 the price of Italy's 5-year CDS surpassed Spain's. The rating agencies agree and all three of the main agencies give Spain a higher credit ratin…
Why Spain may be More Worrisome than Italy Why Spain may be More Worrisome than Italy Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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Bloomberg Surveillance Radio: Indian Rupee

January 05, 2012
Better late than never, figured out (or rather my wonderful webmaster figured out) how to get mp3 files on the site. Here is an interview I did late last year on the Indian rupee, it connects well with this piece.

Bloomberg Surveillance Radio: Indian Rupee Bloomberg Surveillance Radio: Indian Rupee Reviewed by magonomics on January 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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Refunding Fears Take Toll on Europe

January 05, 2012
One of the key factors behind the poor sentiment toward the euro, which was pressed to new 13 month lows in Europe today, is the challenge posed by the sovereign and bank refunding needed this year, while rating downgrades loom around the corner.  Euro zone sovereigns have an estimated 800 bln euros of debt servicing and spending to fund this year…
Refunding Fears Take Toll on Europe Refunding Fears Take Toll on Europe Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Visual Guide to Spending of US Tax Revenue Great Graphic: Visual Guide to Spending of US Tax Revenue Reviewed by magonomics on January 04, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Comes Back Bid

January 04, 2012
The US dollar has come back bid today after yesterday's rather shallow correction.  Euro sellers re-emerged as the single currency approached its 20-day moving average for the first time in a couple of weeks.  Although the PMIs are a bit better, it does not change the underlying economic picture.  Nor does it impact the real concern about the …
Dollar Comes Back Bid Dollar Comes Back Bid Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 04, 2012 Rating: 5
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Is the Fed Going to Ease Policy Later in January?

January 03, 2012
The minutes from the December FOMC meeting reveal how the Federal Reserve is going to change the content of its communication to give greater guidance to the market.  As Marshal McLuhan recognized, the medium is the message and in the current context, the change in the FOMC's communication may be tantamount to an easing of the policy stance.  
…
Is the Fed Going to Ease Policy Later in January? Is the Fed Going to Ease Policy Later in January? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 03, 2012 Rating: 5
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2011 Superlatives

January 03, 2012
Now that we are a few days into the New Year and everyone has presumably sobered up I thought it would be a good time to reflect on 2011 for Marc to Market.

Most Dead Wrong:Be Prepared to Buy into Potential Dollar Decline

Best Timing:Look to Fade Relief Rally

Most Popular:Japan and China, Small Beer
2011 Superlatives 2011 Superlatives Reviewed by magonomics on January 03, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Potential of Solar Energy in the United States

January 03, 2012
This interactive graphic from the US Department of Energy shows the Solar energy potential in different areas of the country. Even in the most overcast regions of the country (aka Twilight territory) 100,000 square feet of solar panels (that's about one baseball field) can power over 850 homes. In most areas of the country it's well over 1…
Great Graphic: Potential of Solar Energy in the United States Great Graphic: Potential of Solar Energy in the United States Reviewed by magonomics on January 03, 2012 Rating: 5
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Ten Observations About Q3 COFER Data: Updated and Corrected

January 01, 2012
At the end of the quarter, the IMF reports the currency composition of official foreign exchange reserves (COFER) data for the proceeding quarter.  On December 30th, the IMF reported Q3 figures.   Here are the ten take-aways.
1.  The pace of reserve accumulation slowed in Q3, rising 0.9% or $95 bln from Q2, when officials reserves rose 3.9% or $380…
Ten Observations About Q3 COFER Data: Updated and Corrected Ten Observations About Q3 COFER Data: Updated and Corrected Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 01, 2012 Rating: 5
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A Quiet Putsch in Hungary?

January 01, 2012
A putsch, as any dictionary will tell you, refers to the violent overthrow of a government.  Hungary has not been subject to that kind of action per se, but rather a more insidious grab for power.  Its new constitution goes into effect today, and while perfectly legal, marks the end of Hungary's flirtation with liberalism (meant in the classic…
A Quiet Putsch in Hungary? A Quiet Putsch in Hungary? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 01, 2012 Rating: 5
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