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Great Graphic: Sterling Approaches Two-Month Trend Line

Marc Chandler May 31, 2016

Many market participants began talking as if it were nearly a done deal that the UK will vote to stay in the EU. It is as if Winston Churchill's witticism that Americans can be counted on to do the right thing after they have exhausted the alternatives really applied to the UK.
We noted that despite sterling's higher trend, the options ma…

Great Graphic: Sterling Approaches Two-Month Trend Line Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 31, 2016 Rating: 5

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Sterling Slips and Aussie Pops as Investors Await Fresh Insight into Fed Trajectory

Marc Chandler May 31, 2016
The US dollar is broadly mixed. The main narrative of increased prospects for a Fed hike in June or July has been pushed off center stage as the market reacts to local developments as investors await from US economic data. Ostensibly the data will determine whether the Fed raises rates in June or July.
On the other hand, despite the Fed's dat…

Sterling Slips and Aussie Pops as Investors Await Fresh Insight into Fed Trajectory Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 31, 2016 Rating: 5

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Emerging Market Preview

Marc Chandler May 30, 2016
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

EM ended last week on a soft note. The icing on the cake was Yellen’s speech Friday afternoon, which confirmed the more hawkish stance seen in the FOMC minutes and other recent official comments. We warn that with the FOMC meeting and Brexit vote next month, markets are likely to remain volatile and that risk asse…

Emerging Market Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 30, 2016 Rating: 5

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The Dollar in the Week Ahead

Marc Chandler May 29, 2016
The US dollar bottomed against nearly all the major currencies on May 3. The hawkish April FOMC minutes that began swaying opinion about the prospects for a summer rate hike were not published until two weeks later, and the confirmation by NY Fed President Dudley was not until May 19.
Nevertheless, the shift in expectations for a resumption of the…

The Dollar in the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 29, 2016 Rating: 5

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Speculators Slash Yen and Aussie Longs

Marc Chandler May 28, 2016
There were only two significant speculative position adjustments in the latest CFTC reporting week ending May 24. Speculators liquidated 31.4k gross long yen contracts, leaving the bulls with 54.8k contracts. It is the largest weekly adjustment since last September.
Speculators have not been particularly keen to pick a yen top. The gross short po…

Speculators Slash Yen and Aussie Longs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 28, 2016 Rating: 5

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Dollar Set to Snap Three-Month Decline

Marc Chandler May 28, 2016
The US dollar was mostly firmer over the past week. There were two exceptions among the major currencies: Sterling and the Canadian dollar.

Many linked sterling's outperformance (+0.8%) to a growing sense that the UK will vote to remain in the EU, despite angst reflected in the elevated cost of insurance (one-month options). The Canadian d…

Dollar Set to Snap Three-Month Decline Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 28, 2016 Rating: 5

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First Skirmishes in Long Battle

Marc Chandler May 27, 2016
For various reasons, well beyond the scope of this short note, China has amassed huge industrial capacity, well beyond its ability to absorb. In part, that is one of the challenges that the "One Belt One Road" addresses. Export the spare capacity by building infrastructure,networking east and central Asia (included parts of the former …

First Skirmishes in Long Battle Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 27, 2016 Rating: 5