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Week Ahead: Rates, AI, and Oil

October 17, 2026
In understanding and anticipating exchange rate movement we often privilege interest rates and the drivers of capital flows instead of trade flows. However, a new player may have entered the game. Or perhaps, more aptly, left the game. The AI meme may have cracked. From 30k feet, the semiconductor index illustrates this. The index fell by more tha…
Week Ahead: Rates, AI, and Oil Week Ahead: Rates, AI, and Oil Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 17, 2026 Rating: 5
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China's Trade Surplus Swells and the Market Awaits US CPI

October 14, 2026
(Business travel disrupts the commentary for the next two days, but the weekly will be posted October 17. Thank you for your patience.) Investors are wary of the unwinding one of the most crowded trades, long the AI ecosystem.  Despite cracks, the market remains resilient. So far, the rise in interest rates has not derailed the narrative. The doll…
China's Trade Surplus Swells and the Market Awaits US CPI China's Trade Surplus Swells and the Market Awaits US CPI Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 14, 2026 Rating: 5
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Softer Rates, Heavier Dollar

October 13, 2026
The pullback in bond yields is the main development in the global capital markets today. Rates eased in Asia Pacific, but the eye of the storm has been in Europe and benchmark 10-year yields are off mostly 4-7 bp today. The move is being led by France and Italy.  However, the fundamental driver, outside of lower (~2%) oil prices seem elusive. The …
Softer Rates, Heavier Dollar Softer Rates, Heavier Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 13, 2026 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: Firm US CPI and Unresolved European Challenges Despite Deal with Beijing may Drive Markets Week Ahead: Firm US CPI and Unresolved European Challenges Despite Deal with Beijing may Drive Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 10, 2026 Rating: 5
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Renewed Pressure in Europe Helps Lift the Greenback

October 07, 2026
(Business travel on October 8-9 will disrupt the daily analysis.  The commentary will resume with the weekly on October 10. Thank you for your patience. Good luck.) Renewed pressure in European bonds has sent the euro back below $1.12, nearly a cent off yesterday’s high.  Its loss of about 0.6% today leads the G10 currency complex lower.  The gree…
Renewed Pressure in Europe Helps Lift the Greenback Renewed Pressure in Europe Helps Lift the Greenback Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 07, 2026 Rating: 5
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Collective Sigh of Relief as Oil Prices Drop, Yields Fall, and Stocks Rise

October 06, 2026
The US dollar is mixed today, the general tone in the capital markets is constructive.  Success by the Saudi-back Yemen forces have recapture strategic territory from the Houthis, which has held drive oil prices lower. Bond yields in Europe have tumbled and the wide peripheral premiums over Germany have narrowed.  Equities are higher.  Five Fed of…
Collective Sigh of Relief as Oil Prices Drop, Yields Fall, and Stocks Rise Collective Sigh of Relief as Oil Prices Drop, Yields Fall, and Stocks Rise Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 06, 2026 Rating: 5
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