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Week Ahead: Can the US CPI Do What Payrolls Didn't and Persuade the Market that the Fed Will Deliver a 50 bp Cut ?

September 07, 2024
After the US jobs report and Fed speak, the market scaled back the odds of a 50 bp cut at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting. It settled last week slightly below a 30% chance. The odds were shaved for the second consecutive week. Fed officials have indicated that the full employment mandate is now of greater significance given its growing confidence…
Week Ahead: Can the US CPI Do What Payrolls Didn't and Persuade the Market that the Fed Will Deliver a 50 bp Cut ? Week Ahead: Can the US CPI Do What Payrolls Didn't and Persuade the Market that the Fed Will Deliver a 50 bp Cut ? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 07, 2024 Rating: 5
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The Market Discounts around a 40% Chance of not One but Two 50 bp Cuts in last Three FOMC Meetings of the Year Ahead of Jobs Report

September 06, 2024
Overview: The US jobs report is front and center. The market is going into the report with about a 40% chance of a 50 bp Fed rate cut later this month. The Dollar Index is trading lower for the third consecutive session. Helped by the fifth consecutive decline in US 10-year yields, the yen approached last month's high but without the turmoil s…
The Market Discounts around a 40% Chance of not One but Two 50 bp Cuts in last Three FOMC Meetings of the Year Ahead of Jobs Report The Market Discounts around a 40% Chance of not One but Two 50 bp Cuts in last Three FOMC Meetings of the Year Ahead of Jobs Report Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 06, 2024 Rating: 5
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Disappointing US Data Followed by Better Japanese Wages and Stronger German Factory Orders Weigh on the Greenback Disappointing US Data Followed by Better Japanese Wages and Stronger German Factory Orders Weigh on the Greenback Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 05, 2024 Rating: 5
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Dollar Consolidates as Stocks Melt

September 04, 2024
Overview: The sharp losses in global equities are dominating today's market developments. Yesterday's 2.1% loss of the S&P 500 and 3.25% drop in the Nasdaq were the largest since carry-trade unwind climaxed on August 5. They have fallen more today and are poised to gap lower at the opening. Asia Pacific shares tumbled, led by Taiwan…
Dollar Consolidates as Stocks Melt Dollar Consolidates as Stocks Melt Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 04, 2024 Rating: 5
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The Dollar is Bid but Ueda Lends Support to the Yen

September 03, 2024
Overview: The dollar is bid as the upside correction that began last week continues today. The greenback is trading above last week's highs against most of the G10 currencies. The yen is the notable exception. Comments by BOJ Governor Ueda has reiterated his intention to raise rates further provided the economy continues to perform as the cent…
The Dollar is Bid but Ueda Lends Support to the Yen The Dollar is Bid but Ueda Lends Support to the Yen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 03, 2024 Rating: 5
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September 2024 Monthly

August 31, 2024
As the summer in the Northern Hemisphere gives way to the fall, monetary policy and politics will shape the investment and business climate. Even if history does not repeat itself, there are still insights to be gleaned. In the last few months of 2023, the market expected aggressive interest rate cuts this year. Although global rates fell, the dol…
September 2024 Monthly September 2024 Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 31, 2024 Rating: 5
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