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Markets Wait

May 20, 2026
The US dollar is mostly firmer, though the Australian and New Zealand dollars are resisting the pull. The euro is trading in almost a 15-tick range on both sides of $1.16, and even with a Gilts-rally spurred by lower-than-expected inflation, sterling is struggling to recapture $1.34. The yen has fallen for the past seven sessions and is little cha…
Markets Wait Markets Wait Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 20, 2026 Rating: 5
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Asia and Europe were More Skeptical about Developments in the Strait of Hormuz than the US Asia and Europe were More Skeptical about Developments in the Strait of Hormuz than the US Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 19, 2026 Rating: 5
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Takaichi Endorses Supplemental Budget, Trump Escalates Rhetoric toward Iran, and Markets Spooked Takaichi Endorses Supplemental Budget, Trump Escalates Rhetoric toward Iran, and Markets Spooked Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 18, 2026 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: Rising US Rates Underpin Greenback

May 16, 2026
The US economy appears to be re-accelerating here in Q2 after nearly grinding to a halt in Q1 (0.5% annualized pace). April US CPI and PPI were more elevated than expected. The anticipated average effective Fed funds rate in December rose more than 15 bp in the past week and is up slightly more than 75 bp since the war on Iran began. The Dollar In…
Week Ahead: Rising US Rates Underpin Greenback Week Ahead: Rising US Rates Underpin Greenback Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 16, 2026 Rating: 5
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Greenback Breaks Higher, Stocks and Bonds Lower

May 15, 2026
The US dollar has extended its gains against most currencies today. What is seen as a successful US-China summit and a swing in expectations for Fed policy are aiding the greenback. The anticipated year-end effective Fed funds rate has risen by a dozen basis points this week and the two-year Treasury yield is up 16 bp this week and is the fourth w…
Greenback Breaks Higher, Stocks and Bonds Lower Greenback Breaks Higher, Stocks and Bonds Lower Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 15, 2026 Rating: 5
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US Dollar Threatening to Break Higher

May 14, 2026
The US dollar is trading quietly against the major currencies. The euro is holding above $1.17 and sterling is holding above $1.35, but the market does not appear done probing these support areas.  The greenback has also traded as close to JPY158 as possible without going over. This is where the Bank of Japan may have intervened last week. In the …
US Dollar Threatening to Break Higher US Dollar Threatening to Break Higher Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 14, 2026 Rating: 5
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The Euro and Sterling are Threatening to Break Lower, while a Record Current Account Surplus Does not Prevent the Yen from Challenging Intervention Levels

May 13, 2026
The lack of progress in re-opening the Strait of Hormuz has not prevented oil prices from stabilizing or risk-appetites improving today. Equities and bonds are trading with a firmer bias. The Trump-Xi meeting tomorrow is key talking point today. Ahead of it, the PBOC set the dollar’s reference rate at a new three-year low. US Treasury Secretary Be…
The Euro and Sterling are Threatening to Break Lower, while a Record Current Account Surplus Does not Prevent the Yen from Challenging Intervention Levels The Euro and Sterling are Threatening to Break Lower, while a Record Current Account Surplus Does not Prevent the Yen from Challenging Intervention Levels Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 13, 2026 Rating: 5
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