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Restrained Risk-Off

April 13, 2026
The collapse of US-Iran negotiations and the US threat to blockage Iranian ports presents an escalation in the conflict that the market’s did not anticipate. Equities and bonds are lower, and the dollar is mostly firmer. However, so far, the moves appear restrained. Iranian oil has largely been shipped to China and with the Trump-Xi meeting in a m…
Restrained Risk-Off Restrained Risk-Off Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 13, 2026 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: Hope Springs Eternal

April 11, 2026
Hope that the ceasefire will lead to the end of the Middle East war fanned risk appetites in recent days. Equities rallied broadly. May WTI and June Brent fell by nearly 11.5%. The dollar fell against all the G10 currencies, the Antipodeans and Scandis, which seem the most sensitive to growth prospects and the risk environment. The JP Morgan Emerg…
Week Ahead: Hope Springs Eternal Week Ahead: Hope Springs Eternal Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 11, 2026 Rating: 5
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G10 Currency Consolidation Looks Constructive, but the Weekend Poses Risks

April 10, 2026
The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies today, ahead of the March US CPI report. The dollar bloc and the Japanese yen are struggling. However, the tone is mostly consolidative. Equities were higher in the Asia Pacific region, with a few exceptions, and in Europe. Bond yields are firmer. Both WTI and Brent crude oil are trading with a slight…
G10 Currency Consolidation Looks Constructive, but the Weekend Poses Risks G10 Currency Consolidation Looks Constructive, but the Weekend Poses Risks Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 10, 2026 Rating: 5
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Rough Start to Ceasefire Curbs Yesterday's Enthusiasm

April 09, 2026
It seemed clear that yesterday’s euphoric reaction to the two-week ceasefire was exaggerated. Ceasefires often have been plagued with disputes and violations at the start. This one is no different. At the same time, Israel’s action in Lebanon complicates the situation and there is some dispute whether it was covered by the ceasefire. President Tru…
Rough Start to Ceasefire Curbs Yesterday's Enthusiasm Rough Start to Ceasefire Curbs Yesterday's Enthusiasm Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 09, 2026 Rating: 5
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Ceasefire Lifts Animal Spirits

April 08, 2026
Risk appetites have been excited by the two-week cease fire in the Middle East. Stocks and bonds have rallied strongly. The precious metals are higher. May WTI is off more than 15%. June Brent is about 13% lower. The US dollar is weaker against all the G10 and emerging market currencies that are trading. The ceasefire is overwhelming other develop…
Ceasefire Lifts Animal Spirits Ceasefire Lifts Animal Spirits Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 08, 2026 Rating: 5
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On the Edge of the Abyss

April 07, 2026
The dollar is mostly narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside the Swedish krona, which has fallen nearly 0.75% on the back of an unexpected soft March CPI, the other G10 currencies are +/- less than 0.2%. Investors remain on edge ahead the US ultimatum deadline, which is in the Asia Pacific session today. There are mixed reports on…
On the Edge of the Abyss On the Edge of the Abyss Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 07, 2026 Rating: 5
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Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum

April 06, 2026
The US deadline on Tehran for re-opening the Strait of Hormuz has subtly shifted until tomorrow. The holiday-thinned market initially bought dollars and oil and took risk off in response to the continued attacks and the escalation of US rhetoric. However, negotiations, apparently led by Pakistan, Egypt, and Türkiye for a 45-day cease fire, have ca…
Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 06, 2026 Rating: 5
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