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The Yuan's Quiet Rise and Next Week's Summit

May 07, 2026
The offshore yuan appreciated nearly 5% against the dollar last year. The onshore yuan gained about 4.25%.  This year has picked up were 2025 left off.  Through yesterday, the offshore yuan has added roughly 2.4% this year, the onshore unit 2.6%. That puts it second among emerging market currencies in the region, trailing only the Malaysian ringgi…
The Yuan's Quiet Rise and Next Week's Summit The Yuan's Quiet Rise and Next Week's Summit Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 07, 2026 Rating: 5
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USD Remains Soft, Norway Hiked, Mexico to Cut, and UK Votes

May 07, 2026
Hopes that the war on Iran is nearly over and that the Strait of Hormuz will open soon and ease the supply shock that has rippled across the global markets continues to underpin risk appetites today. The AI boom and the infrastructure and defense spending in Europe are also contributing. The dollar is mostly softer, oil prices lower and yields ext…
USD Remains Soft, Norway Hiked, Mexico to Cut, and UK Votes USD Remains Soft, Norway Hiked, Mexico to Cut, and UK Votes Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 07, 2026 Rating: 5
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TACO Delivered a Day after Cinco De Mayo

May 06, 2026
There is one overarching fundamental development today that is driving the risk-on in the capital markets and weighing on the dollar. President Trump announced the US was suspending its new escort service in the Strait of Hormuz. Ostensibly at the request of Pakistan and other countries, the decision was to give negotiators more time. Front-month …
TACO Delivered a Day after Cinco De Mayo TACO Delivered a Day after Cinco De Mayo Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 06, 2026 Rating: 5
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US Dollar Mostly Softer, Gilts Play Catch-up, and the RBA Delivered Third Hike and Signals a Pause US Dollar Mostly Softer, Gilts Play Catch-up, and the RBA Delivered Third Hike and Signals a Pause Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 05, 2026 Rating: 5
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US-Iran Ceasefire at Risk: Oil Pulls Rates Higher

May 04, 2026
The US dollar recovered in late turnover ahead of the weekend and has extended its recovery today in holiday-thin trading. Japan, China, and UK markets are closed. The ceasefire in the US-Iran war looks fragile as Washington says it will begin escorting ships out of the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran threatens to attack the ships. June WTI is trading…
US-Iran Ceasefire at Risk: Oil Pulls Rates Higher US-Iran Ceasefire at Risk: Oil Pulls Rates Higher Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 04, 2026 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: RBA Hike, UK Local Elections, and US Employment Report

May 02, 2026
Three developments stand out from last week. First, all five G10 central banks that met delivered in some form of hawkish holds. The Bank of Japan was the least convincing and the swap market barely changed the extent of the anticipated tightening this year. The year-end projection rose by about 22 bp in Canada, 19 bp for the ECB, and 15 bp for th…
Week Ahead: RBA Hike, UK Local Elections, and US Employment Report Week Ahead: RBA Hike, UK Local Elections, and US Employment Report Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 02, 2026 Rating: 5
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May Day: Market Looks for US Leadership

May 01, 2026
In holiday-thinned markets, the dollar is mostly softer as North American leadership is awaited.  In light of yesterday’s surge in the yen, and contrary to our expectation, it does appear that Japanese officials materially intervened yesterday. The intervention may have been for around $34.5 bln (~JPY5.4 trillion), which if accurate, would be larg…
May Day: Market Looks for US Leadership May Day: Market Looks for US Leadership Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 01, 2026 Rating: 5
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