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Holiday Overview: The State of Play

May 27, 2024
FX:  The dollar traded mostly higher last week.  I suspect more near-term gains, but I am less convinced than I was a week ago.  Given the FOMC minutes and more recent commentary from Fed officials, I suspect the market is exaggerating the chances of two cuts this year.  That had been my leaning too, but I think the recent…
Holiday Overview: The State of Play Holiday Overview: The State of Play Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 27, 2024 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: Near-Term Dollar Outlook Less Clear than a Week Ago

May 25, 2024
Stronger than expected data and hawkish FOMC minutes helped lift US rates and the greenback last week. That market continues to also reduce the extend of ECB easing this year is notable but did not prevent the euro from snapping a five-week advance. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose above 1% last week for the first time since 2012, b…
Week Ahead: Near-Term Dollar Outlook Less Clear than a Week Ago Week Ahead:  Near-Term Dollar Outlook Less Clear than a Week Ago Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 25, 2024 Rating: 5
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Calmer Markets Ahead of the Weekend

May 24, 2024
Overview: The dollar is paring yesterday's advance that was spurred by the rise in US rates following the preliminary PMI, which reached its best level in two years. The survey also picked up higher prices. The dollar is in narrow trading ranges but softer against nearly all the G10 currencies today. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen are laggar…
Calmer Markets Ahead of the Weekend Calmer Markets Ahead of the Weekend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 24, 2024 Rating: 5
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After Hawkish FOMC Minutes, the Dollar Comes Back Softer

May 23, 2024
Overview:  The dollar was aided yesterday by the hawkish FOMC minutes and the backing up of US rates. The greenback has stabilized today and is softer against all the G10 currencies. The stronger eurozone PMI masks divergence between Germany and France but keeps the recovery narrative intact. The dollar's broad gains pressured the yuan, and th…
After Hawkish FOMC Minutes, the Dollar Comes Back Softer After Hawkish FOMC Minutes, the Dollar Comes Back Softer Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 23, 2024 Rating: 5
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UK CPI Disappoints

May 22, 2024
Overview: A hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and a firmer than expected UK CPI reading have allowed the New Zealand dollar and sterling to show resilience in the face of the US dollar's broadly firmer tone. And even there, the Kiwi and pound have seen their early gains pared. The Swiss franc is the weakest of the G10 currencies …
UK CPI Disappoints UK CPI Disappoints Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 22, 2024 Rating: 5
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Consolidative Tuesday

May 21, 2024
Overview: The dollar is consolidating but with a somewhat heavier bias today. The G10 currencies are firmer but for the New Zealand and Canadian dollars, which are slightly softer. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer, except for a handful of Asian currencies. The news steam is light. Equities are trading off. The MSCI Asia Pacific Inde…
Consolidative Tuesday Consolidative Tuesday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 21, 2024 Rating: 5
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Jump in Japanese Bond Yields Fails to Lift the Yen

May 20, 2024
Overview: The foreign exchange market is quiet. Most of the G10 currencies are +/- 0.1% against the dollar. The crash that took the of Iran's president and foreign minister may have helped lift gold to new record highs ($2450), the impact seems more muted, as poor weather rather than foul play, seems to be main narrative. July WTI reached near…
Jump in Japanese Bond Yields Fails to Lift the Yen Jump in Japanese Bond Yields Fails to Lift the Yen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 20, 2024 Rating: 5
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