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Federal Reserve's Thunder and no Rain Weighs on Dollar

July 30, 2026
The decision to standpat on a 9-3 vote at the FOMC yesterday looked like a hawkish hold but it seemed like the more Chair Warsh affirmed the central bank’s commitment to achieving the inflation target, the more short-term interest rates and the dollar fell. The expected year-end effective Fed funds rate fell 15 bp from the session high yesterday. …
Federal Reserve's Thunder and no Rain Weighs on Dollar Federal Reserve's Thunder and no Rain Weighs on Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2026 Rating: 5
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Hump Day: War and the FOMC

July 29, 2026
New hostilities in the Middle East have lifted oil prices for the first time in four sessions and is snapping the three-day decline in European and US bond yields. The US dollar is mostly narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies.  Softer than expected CPI has reduced the perceived chances the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike rates again this y…
Hump Day: War and the FOMC Hump Day: War and the FOMC Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 29, 2026 Rating: 5
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Oil Falls Further, China Claims Chip Break-Through, and Market Contemplates Fed Hike Tomorrow Oil Falls Further, China Claims Chip Break-Through, and Market Contemplates Fed Hike Tomorrow Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 28, 2026 Rating: 5
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Pause in Middle East Hostilities Spark Stock and Bond Market Rally

July 27, 2026
There is one major driver in the capital markets today: A sharp drop in oil prices as the US and Iran have inexplicably not attacked for the past three nights. There is speculation in the press that the US decision was partly motivated by concerns over diminishing supplies of air defenses (e.g., Patriot interceptors) after the two-week assault, bu…
Pause in Middle East Hostilities Spark Stock and Bond Market Rally Pause in Middle East Hostilities Spark Stock and Bond Market Rally Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 27, 2026 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: War, Tariffs, and Three G10 Central Bank Meetings

July 25, 2026
The escalation of the Middle East war sent oil prices sharply higher and pulled interest rates up, too. September WTI rose by more than 10% for a three-week increase of more than 25%. Neither side seems prepared to back down. However, judging by the largest spread this year (~$11) between the September WTI and the December contract suggests many p…
Week Ahead: War, Tariffs, and Three G10 Central Bank Meetings Week Ahead: War, Tariffs, and Three G10 Central Bank Meetings Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 25, 2026 Rating: 5
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Oil Pulls Back, Takes Some Pressure off Interest Rates, Leaves the Greenback Slightly Softer Oil Pulls Back, Takes Some Pressure off Interest Rates, Leaves the Greenback Slightly Softer Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 24, 2026 Rating: 5
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Yen Sold to New 40-Year Lows, while PBOC Sets Dollar's Reference Rate at a 3-Year Low Yen Sold to New 40-Year Lows, while PBOC Sets Dollar's Reference Rate at a 3-Year Low Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 23, 2026 Rating: 5
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