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Week Ahead: BOJ and Fed may Pay Heavy Price if They Disappoint the Market

September 12, 2026
The Middle East war, for which President Trump has claimed victory many times, continues to be a powerful disruptive force. Iran is not hunkering down in a defensive position but has gone on the offensive. The combination of Ukraine's success, hitting Russian refinery capacity, the drop in Saudi output, the increased buying by China, and the H…
Week Ahead: BOJ and Fed may Pay Heavy Price if They Disappoint the Market Week Ahead: BOJ and Fed may Pay Heavy Price if They Disappoint the Market Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 12, 2026 Rating: 5
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US Dollar Bid Ahead of ECB Rate Hike

September 10, 2026
( (No commentary on September 11 due to business travel, though the weekly analysis will be posted on September 12.) It seems like a low probability scenario that the US can cap long-term US interest rate when hostilities in the Middle East are disrupting the energy market, while China appears not to be showing the extent of the buying restraint It…
US Dollar Bid Ahead of ECB Rate Hike US Dollar Bid Ahead of ECB Rate Hike Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 10, 2026 Rating: 5
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Oil Higher, Yen Consolidates, US to Reveal Bond Buyback Plans

September 09, 2026
There are two main developments today. The first is the escalation of the Middle East war has lifted oil prices. October WTI rose 9.7% last week, and with today’s gains, is a little more than 4% this week. This has helped lift bond yields.  The second is the short squeeze of the Japanese yen. Since the middle of last week, the yen has surged about…
Oil Higher, Yen Consolidates, US to Reveal Bond Buyback Plans Oil Higher, Yen Consolidates, US to Reveal Bond Buyback Plans Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 09, 2026 Rating: 5
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Yen Short Squeeze Runs into Middle East War Escalation

September 08, 2026
The yen’s surge that began in the middle of last week continued today. The greenback fell from above JPY160 to a little below JPY153 today, its lowest level in seven months. There still is no evidence of official intervention. The swaps market continues to price a hike next week and most likely another in December. It has hardly changed since the …
Yen Short Squeeze Runs into Middle East War Escalation Yen Short Squeeze Runs into Middle East War Escalation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 08, 2026 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: Yen in Play, ECB Hikes, and US CPI to Impact FOMC

September 05, 2026
The G20 and Shanghai Cooperation Council held their respective summits. The American agenda was to convince countries to take a harder stand against Chinese exports while still threatening some members with sanctions due to trade or facilitating trade with Iran, including airlines. The G20 failed to agree on a statement.  Media accounts blamed Chi…
Week Ahead: Yen in Play, ECB Hikes, and US CPI to Impact FOMC Week Ahead: Yen in Play, ECB Hikes, and US CPI to Impact FOMC Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 05, 2026 Rating: 5
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Yen Stabilizes as Market Awaits US Employment Data

September 04, 2026
The US dollar is mostly consolidating quietly ahead of the employment data.  Seasonal factors, and the challenge economists experience in forecasting August job growth in part because of the distortions around local governments and the beginning of the new school year.  While Federal Reserve Governor Waller drew attention to next week’s CPI, an un…
Yen Stabilizes as Market Awaits US Employment Data Yen Stabilizes as Market Awaits US Employment Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 04, 2026 Rating: 5
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