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US-Iran Ceasefire at Risk: Oil Pulls Rates Higher

May 04, 2026
The US dollar recovered in late turnover ahead of the weekend and has extended its recovery today in holiday-thin trading. Japan, China, and UK markets are closed. The ceasefire in the US-Iran war looks fragile as Washington says it will begin escorting ships out of the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran threatens to attack the ships. June WTI is trading…
US-Iran Ceasefire at Risk: Oil Pulls Rates Higher US-Iran Ceasefire at Risk: Oil Pulls Rates Higher Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 04, 2026 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: RBA Hike, UK Local Elections, and US Employment Report

May 02, 2026
Three developments stand out from last week. First, all five G10 central banks that met delivered in some form of hawkish holds. The Bank of Japan was the least convincing and the swap market barely changed the extent of the anticipated tightening this year. The year-end projection rose by about 22 bp in Canada, 19 bp for the ECB, and 15 bp for th…
Week Ahead: RBA Hike, UK Local Elections, and US Employment Report Week Ahead: RBA Hike, UK Local Elections, and US Employment Report Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 02, 2026 Rating: 5
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May Day: Market Looks for US Leadership

May 01, 2026
In holiday-thinned markets, the dollar is mostly softer as North American leadership is awaited.  In light of yesterday’s surge in the yen, and contrary to our expectation, it does appear that Japanese officials materially intervened yesterday. The intervention may have been for around $34.5 bln (~JPY5.4 trillion), which if accurate, would be larg…
May Day: Market Looks for US Leadership May Day: Market Looks for US Leadership Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 01, 2026 Rating: 5
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The Yen Recovers on Verbal Intervention

April 30, 2026
The North American market understood yesterday’s Fed statement and the three dissents in favor of a neutral bias as a hawkish hold and rallied the dollar in response. Follow-through selling today has been minimal and the greenback is sporting a softer profile. The strongest currency today is the Japanese yen, which had fallen to its lowest level s…
The Yen Recovers on Verbal Intervention The Yen Recovers on Verbal Intervention Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 30, 2026 Rating: 5
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Euro and ECB

April 29, 2026
The euro' fell nearly 1.65% in Q1, only to claw back about 1.25% in April. At one level, that looks like noise within a broader range. At another, it reflects a market that has been repeatedly and abruptly forced to reprice the policy outlook in response to shifting geopolitical and macroeconomic crosscurrents.The ECB meets tomorrow, and a haw…
Euro and ECB Euro and ECB Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 29, 2026 Rating: 5
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Oil Prices Advance Ahead of What Will likely be Powell's Last FOMC Meeting (as Chair) Oil Prices Advance Ahead of What Will likely be Powell's Last FOMC Meeting (as Chair) Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 29, 2026 Rating: 5
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Three Dissents in Favor of a Rate Hike Fail to Support the Yen

April 28, 2026
The markets seem nervous. The dollar is higher against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies. June WTI, which was at $82.60 on April 17, is now pushing against $100. July Brent, which was at $86.50, is now approaching $105. Both are up for the sixth session of the past seven. Equities and bonds are mostly lower. Gold and silve…
Three Dissents in Favor of a Rate Hike Fail to Support the Yen Three Dissents in Favor of a Rate Hike Fail to Support the Yen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 28, 2026 Rating: 5
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