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Risk of Escalation Discourages Risk Taking while US Jobs Report May Extend the Dollar's Narrow Ranges Risk of Escalation Discourages Risk Taking while US Jobs Report May Extend the Dollar's Narrow Ranges Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 03, 2026 Rating: 5
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Hope Dashed, Risk Appetites Slashed Ahead of Long Holiday Weekend for Many

April 02, 2026
President Trump’s national address seemed to contain little more than a reading of some of his recent social media posts. The market was eager for some sign of confirmation of its hope that had buoyed the capital markets in the last couple of sessions. It found none. The threat of escalating attacks while reiterating that the US military operation…
Hope Dashed, Risk Appetites Slashed Ahead of Long Holiday Weekend for Many Hope Dashed, Risk Appetites Slashed Ahead of Long Holiday Weekend for Many Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 02, 2026 Rating: 5
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Hope Boosts Risk Appetites and Drags the Greenback Lower

April 01, 2026
Hope springs eternal, and the capital markets are trading on hope that the Middle East war ends shortly, even as missiles continue to be fired in the region. President Trump again hinted that the war may be winding down shortly. He will address the nation at 9:00 pm ET today. At a news conference today, UK Prime Minister Starmer announced plans fo…
Hope Boosts Risk Appetites and Drags the Greenback Lower Hope Boosts Risk Appetites and Drags the Greenback Lower Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 01, 2026 Rating: 5
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Mixed War News Keeps Oil Firm and the Greenback Consolidating

March 31, 2026
War developments pulled in both directions, leaving investors on edge On the one hand, Iran struck an oil tanker, carrying Kuwait oil, in port in Dubai. On the other hand, reports suggest President Trump told aides he is willing to wind down hostilities and pressure Iran diplomatically to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. May WTI has held about $100 t…
Mixed War News Keeps Oil Firm and the Greenback Consolidating Mixed War News Keeps Oil Firm and the Greenback Consolidating Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 31, 2026 Rating: 5
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US Dollar's Advance Continues but Verbal Threats Lift the Yen

March 30, 2026
The Middle East war rages on. The Houthis have entered the fray and there is risk that it shuts the Bab El-Mandeb Strait. Aluminum and steel facilities have been reportedly attacked. The US continues to amass forces, including troops, ostensibly for a potential landing operation. There seem to be two “logics” playing out. One is that the US is kee…
US Dollar's Advance Continues but Verbal Threats Lift the Yen US Dollar's Advance Continues but Verbal Threats Lift the Yen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 30, 2026 Rating: 5
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April 2026 Monthly

March 28, 2026
Wars rarely stay where they start. The Israeli and American military campaign against Iran—the most direct confrontation with Tehran in decades—has sent shockwaves well beyond the Middle East. The fog of war obscures the tactical picture almost daily, but the economic transmission mechanisms are clear enough, and investors who mistake this for a r…
April 2026 Monthly April 2026 Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 28, 2026 Rating: 5
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The Dollar and Oil are Bid

March 27, 2026
The dollar and oil remain firm. The market has a had muted reaction to President Trump’s announcement late yesterday that it will extend its pledge not to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure for ten days (April 6). At the same time, reports indicate the US is considering sending more troops to the area. The logic of “escalation to de-escalate” con…
The Dollar and Oil are Bid The Dollar and Oil are Bid Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 27, 2026 Rating: 5
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