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US Rates Steady after Yesterday's Surge and the Greenback Consolidates

September 17, 2026
The initial reaction to the Federal Reserve rate hike was to take US rates and the dollar higher, even though the hike was well anticipated.  In addition to the dots, which showed 16 officials see another hike as likely being appropriate this year compared with six in June, Chair Warsh’s characterization of the hike as “removing a dose of accommod…
US Rates Steady after Yesterday's Surge and the Greenback Consolidates US Rates Steady after Yesterday's Surge and the Greenback Consolidates Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 17, 2026 Rating: 5
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The Greenback Remains Firm but Mostly Inside Yesterday's Ranges

September 15, 2026
(Due to travel schedule, no commentary tomorrow.  Normal schedule resumes Thursday, September 17.  Thank you for your patience). The rise in oil prices and yields is helping underpin the greenback ahead of tomorrow’s conclusion of the FOMC meeting. The Fed funds futures are discounting almost a 95% chance of a hike, and a second hike is fully pric…
The Greenback Remains Firm but Mostly Inside Yesterday's Ranges The Greenback Remains Firm but Mostly Inside Yesterday's Ranges Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 15, 2026 Rating: 5
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US Dollar Jumps on Fed Expectations

September 14, 2026
The combination of heightened expectations for the Federal Reserve to lift rates late this week coupled with the high oil prices have helped lift the US dollar broadly today. Yet, the PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at a new 3 1/2-year low today.  Among the G10 currencies, the Swedish krona has been the hardest hit. It is off around 0.8% …
US Dollar Jumps on Fed Expectations US Dollar Jumps on Fed Expectations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 14, 2026 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: BOJ and Fed may Pay Heavy Price if They Disappoint the Market

September 12, 2026
The Middle East war, for which President Trump has claimed victory many times, continues to be a powerful disruptive force. Iran is not hunkering down in a defensive position but has gone on the offensive. The combination of Ukraine's success, hitting Russian refinery capacity, the drop in Saudi output, the increased buying by China, and the H…
Week Ahead: BOJ and Fed may Pay Heavy Price if They Disappoint the Market Week Ahead: BOJ and Fed may Pay Heavy Price if They Disappoint the Market Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 12, 2026 Rating: 5
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US Dollar Bid Ahead of ECB Rate Hike

September 10, 2026
( (No commentary on September 11 due to business travel, though the weekly analysis will be posted on September 12.) It seems like a low probability scenario that the US can cap long-term US interest rate when hostilities in the Middle East are disrupting the energy market, while China appears not to be showing the extent of the buying restraint It…
US Dollar Bid Ahead of ECB Rate Hike US Dollar Bid Ahead of ECB Rate Hike Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 10, 2026 Rating: 5
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Oil Higher, Yen Consolidates, US to Reveal Bond Buyback Plans

September 09, 2026
There are two main developments today. The first is the escalation of the Middle East war has lifted oil prices. October WTI rose 9.7% last week, and with today’s gains, is a little more than 4% this week. This has helped lift bond yields.  The second is the short squeeze of the Japanese yen. Since the middle of last week, the yen has surged about…
Oil Higher, Yen Consolidates, US to Reveal Bond Buyback Plans Oil Higher, Yen Consolidates, US to Reveal Bond Buyback Plans Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 09, 2026 Rating: 5
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Yen Short Squeeze Runs into Middle East War Escalation

September 08, 2026
The yen’s surge that began in the middle of last week continued today. The greenback fell from above JPY160 to a little below JPY153 today, its lowest level in seven months. There still is no evidence of official intervention. The swaps market continues to price a hike next week and most likely another in December. It has hardly changed since the …
Yen Short Squeeze Runs into Middle East War Escalation Yen Short Squeeze Runs into Middle East War Escalation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 08, 2026 Rating: 5
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