Results for BRIC
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

January 09, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
1) China IPO has resumed in earnest 2) The Korean government may step in to help exporters 3) Brazilian domestic auto sales declined for the first time in 10 years while Mexico’s auto industry booms 4) Hungary central bank minutes suggest rate cuts to continue this year, but at a slower pace Ove…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 09, 2014 Rating: 5
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Big Picture Look at Next Week

October 06, 2013
The 2007-2008 financial crisis elicited a dramatic policy response that saw interventions by the state on a scale not seen in a generation or more.  Yet, what is a distinguishing characteristic now is the weakness of the state.  This assessment is not simply limited to the continued shutdown of the US federal government and the approaching debt ce…
Big Picture Look at Next Week Big Picture Look at Next Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 06, 2013 Rating: 5
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Overview of Hot Spots in Emerging Markets

March 12, 2013
This overview was written by my colleague Ilan Solot. It provides a thumbnail sketch of the key developments in seven emerging markets. I found it helpful and hope you do too.
1) China is rebalancing its policy framework towards a (slightly) greater focus on inflation
2) Brazil is gearing up to tighten very soon
3) Mexico has cut rates, but MXN…
Overview of Hot Spots in Emerging Markets Overview of Hot Spots in Emerging Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 12, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Robot Penetration

December 06, 2012
This Great Graphicwas posted by Sam Ro on Business Insider.  He got it from Credit Suisse Research. 
Even though the charts focus on robots, the first thing that jumps out is that huge productivity difference between US and Chinese manufacturing workers.   
China has seven times the number of workers and the dollar value of their output is about…
Great Graphic: Robot Penetration Great Graphic: Robot Penetration Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 06, 2012 Rating: 5
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Bloomberg Surveillance Radio: Indian Rupee

January 05, 2012
Better late than never, figured out (or rather my wonderful webmaster figured out) how to get mp3 files on the site. Here is an interview I did late last year on the Indian rupee, it connects well with this piece.

Bloomberg Surveillance Radio: Indian Rupee Bloomberg Surveillance Radio: Indian Rupee Reviewed by magonomics on January 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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India: Foreign Investors Returning, Data Softens

April 05, 2011
Overseas investors have stepped up their purchases of Indian equities in recent days and have reversed the earlier outflows to be net purchasers here in 2011. Between last Thursday, March 31, Friday April 1 and yesterday April 4, foreign investors bought nearly $1 bln of Indian shares according to the Securities and Exchange Board. The net INR43.5…
India: Foreign Investors Returning, Data Softens India: Foreign Investors Returning, Data Softens Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 05, 2011 Rating: 5
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The Internationalization of the Yuan or the Sino-ification of Hong Kong?

January 30, 2011
One of the fundamental characteristics of the global financial architecture is that the world’s second largest economy maintains a rigidly controlled currency. The concept of currency wars, as initially articulated last year, seemed to have been a criticism of the easy monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, but is being appropriated and used as …
The Internationalization of the Yuan or the Sino-ification of Hong Kong? The Internationalization of the Yuan or the Sino-ification of Hong Kong? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 30, 2011 Rating: 5
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Switzerland and India, Really...?

January 27, 2011
A number of Indian banks have begun issuing Swiss franc denominated bonds, ostensibly to raise cheap funds and meet the demand in Europe for emerging market debt. Reports suggest that this is the first of such issues in almost a quarter of a century.
While Indian banks seem well capitalized presently, the new international rules will require them …
Switzerland and India, Really...? Switzerland and India, Really...? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 27, 2011 Rating: 5
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India: Will the Tortoise Pass the Hare ?

December 07, 2010
India's Finance Ministry raised its economic forecast for the year ending March 31, 2011. Back in Feb it had forecast 8.25%-8.75% growth and today increased that forecast to as much as 9.1%. Ironically, the increase in the growth pace is not expected to be accompanied by higher inflation. The revisions to growth appear to be at least in part d…
India: Will the Tortoise Pass the Hare ? India: Will the Tortoise Pass the Hare ? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 07, 2010 Rating: 5
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Update: India, Brazil, Mexico

September 24, 2010
India: Earlier today India lifted the cap on foreign ownership of government and corporate bonds. This had been anticipated, but it runs counter to the rash of media reports suggesting that rise of beggar-thy-neighbor policies after last week's BOJ intervention. Foreign investors can now hold as much as $10 bln worth of Indian government bonds…
Update: India, Brazil, Mexico Update: India, Brazil, Mexico Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 24, 2010 Rating: 5
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Brazil Getting Serious about BRL

September 21, 2010
Brazilian officials are getting more serious about curbing the real's strength. First, the central bank appears to have stepped up the amount of intervention and has been conducted two auctions a day to buy dollars since Sept 8. Local contacts estimate intervention to have run $1 bln a day for most of the last week. To put that in perspective,…
Brazil Getting Serious about BRL Brazil Getting Serious about BRL Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 21, 2010 Rating: 5
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Dovish Brazil, but Firm Real

September 09, 2010
The market is talking about the dovish cast to the minutes of the recent central bank meeting. It seems to be among the strongest signals to date that policy is on hold. The market had already pushed out expectations for a hike into next year and now are scaling even those back a bit.
The dovishness of the minutes has ben further driven home by th…
Dovish Brazil, but Firm Real Dovish Brazil, but Firm Real Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 09, 2010 Rating: 5
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India Booms

August 31, 2010
One key theme has been how well many emerging market economies have held up while the world's biggest economies slow. India's Q2 GDP report fits into that theme. The 8.8% year-over-year growth represents an acceleration from the 8.6% y-o-y pace in Q1. Its strong growth and elevated inflation keeps the door open to additional tightening. Th…
India Booms India Booms Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 31, 2010 Rating: 5
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Latam Currencies Softening in the Wake of USD Recovery

August 10, 2010
The US dollar's recovery against the major currencies is corresponding with its recovery against emerging markets and the Latam currency performance is consistent with this . Both the Brazilian real and Mexican peso are about 0.5% lower in the early going.
The dollar had been flirting with the BRL1.75 support yesterday and is now testing offer…
Latam Currencies Softening in the Wake of USD Recovery Latam Currencies Softening in the Wake of USD Recovery Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 10, 2010 Rating: 5
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More Tightening To Underpin Rupee

August 02, 2010
The central bank of India tightened policy last week by raising the reverse repo rate 25 bp to 5.75%. It is the fourth tightening move in five months and more tightening is likely in the coming period.
The central bank raised its 2010 GDP forecast to 8.5% from 8% last weekand lilfted its inflation forecast to 6% from 5.5%. The strength of the econ…
More Tightening To Underpin Rupee More Tightening To Underpin Rupee Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 02, 2010 Rating: 5
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Euro, Sterling, Krona, Asian Central Banks

June 16, 2010
The euro’s resilience remains impressive. The news stream has soured in the last 48 hours or so, following the Greek downgrade by Moody’s,, the dropping of Greek bonds from a couple of industry benchmark indices, the haircut on Greek bonds the ECB is requiring, continued talk of some kind of financing package for Spain (the most recent in El Econo…
Euro, Sterling, Krona, Asian Central Banks Euro, Sterling, Krona, Asian Central Banks Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 16, 2010 Rating: 5
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Dollar Extends Last Week's Losses

June 14, 2010
The US dollar is extending last week’s pullback in what appears to be largely position adjustments, partly as a function of a better news stream and a healthier appetite for risk. For the first time since mid-April, the euro has traded above its 20-day moving average and sterling has completely recouped the losses seen in response to the unexpecte…
Dollar Extends Last Week's Losses Dollar Extends Last Week's Losses Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 14, 2010 Rating: 5
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Japanese Politics, Central Banks, and Sterling Outperforms

June 02, 2010
Japan’s Prime Minister Hatoyama resigned. There were such hopes for the DPJ, but the combination of party scandals and the controversy over the failure to carry out a campaign promise about moving the US Marine Corp base off of Okinawa ultimately proved overwhelming. His resignation and the resignation of the DPJ Secretary General Ozawa, who was a…
Japanese Politics, Central Banks, and Sterling Outperforms Japanese Politics, Central Banks, and Sterling Outperforms Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2010 Rating: 5
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Fissure in the BRICs

April 20, 2010
We recognize that BRIC was a clever marketing device, but besides being large developing economies, they don't really have that much in common outside of ambivalence toward unipolar world in which the US dominates.
The recent BRIC summit did not generate new initiatives and the subject of the yuan was not apparently on the agenda. However, Bra…
Fissure in the BRICs Fissure in the BRICs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 20, 2010 Rating: 5
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India Poised to Tighten Again Tomorrow

April 19, 2010
India's central bank meets tomorrow and the risk is asymmetrically biased toward continued tightening of monetary conditions. Generally speaking, following the intra-meeting move last month, most expect India's central bank to hike key short-term rates by 25 bp. However, the risk is that officials take stronger action. This could take the …
India Poised to Tighten Again Tomorrow India Poised to Tighten Again Tomorrow Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 19, 2010 Rating: 5
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