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Is the Dollar's Momentum Easing? Is Deeper Pullback in the Stock Market Likely? Is the Dollar's Momentum Easing? Is Deeper Pullback in the Stock Market Likely? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 31, 2015 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Race--A Social not Biological Construct

January 31, 2015
This Cool Video is from Vox.  It is a  three minute discussion about the category of race.  The video offers a useful reminder that race is a not a biological category, determined by DNA, but a social category that has changed over time.  It claims to debunk race, but it really doesn't.  It recognizes it as an important social and political co…
Cool Video: Race--A Social not Biological Construct Cool Video: Race--A Social not Biological Construct Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 31, 2015 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

January 30, 2015
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

1) Hungary’s central bank turned dovish 2) The Turkish central bank signalled that it may cut rates next week during an emergency meeting. 3) Pakistan's central bank surprised with a more aggressive cut than expected 4) Russian central bank surprised with a rate cu…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 30, 2015 Rating: 5
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Deflationary Forces Strengthen

January 30, 2015
The month and week are winding down, and what a month and week it has been. The three key events were all about Europe.  The SNB's unexpected decision to lift the cap on the franc. The ECB's decision to proceed with a sovereign bond buying program was less a surprise but just as momentous if not more so.  Syriza's victory in Greece is …
Deflationary Forces Strengthen Deflationary Forces Strengthen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 30, 2015 Rating: 5
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Deep Dive: Is EMU Irreversible or Not?

January 29, 2015
A jacket or shirt may be reversible. The optical illusion posted here is reversible.  A man is evident even when looked at "upside down".  Time is unidirectional, we are taught and some things simply cannot be reversed, like  a hard-boiled egg.
However, science has once again pulled the rug out beneath our feet. Earlier this week,ABCrepor…
Deep Dive: Is EMU Irreversible or Not? Deep Dive: Is EMU Irreversible or Not? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 29, 2015 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Is Germany Going Where Japan has Never Been?

January 29, 2015
There are a number of investors and economists that argue that where Japan was, there the Europe and the US are going. Most recently they are emphasizing Europe following Japan more than the US.  
Although we recognize some similarities, we suspect they are superficial in nature.  For example, the deflation that has gripped Japan is qualitatively d…
Great Graphic: Is Germany Going Where Japan has Never Been? Great Graphic: Is Germany Going Where Japan has Never Been? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 29, 2015 Rating: 5
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Major Currencies Stuck in Range, while Antipodeans become Unstuck

January 29, 2015
The euro, sterling and yen remain confined to their recent ranges, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars succumbed to selling pressure.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand shifted to a more neutral tone, as had been widely anticipated.  What seemed to have surprised the market was the more aggressive efforts to talk the currency down.  It was al…
Major Currencies Stuck in Range, while Antipodeans become Unstuck Major Currencies Stuck in Range, while Antipodeans become Unstuck Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 29, 2015 Rating: 5
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Too Quick to Exaggerate SWIFT Data

January 28, 2015
The media pounced on a report from SWIFT, the international messaging platform for financial transactions, which showed a rise in the use of the Chinese yuan to record levels. According to SWIFT, the use of the yuan surpassed the Australian and Canadian dollar to move into fifth place.  
It is not that there is a reason to doubt the validity of the…
Too Quick to Exaggerate SWIFT Data Too Quick to Exaggerate SWIFT Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 28, 2015 Rating: 5
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European Developments Steal Spotlight from Today's Fed Statement

January 28, 2015
On days that the Federal Reserve issues its statement that tends to be the main highlight of the trading session. However, with expectations running fairly low for a significant shift in the stance or forward guidance, developments elsewhere, especially Europe, are overshadowing it. 
While Asia was able to shrug off yesterday's US equity market…
European Developments Steal Spotlight from Today's Fed Statement European Developments Steal Spotlight from Today's Fed Statement Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 28, 2015 Rating: 5
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Preview of the January FOMC Meeting and Beyond

January 27, 2015
The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting concludes Wednesday.  To the extent an FOMC meeting is ever routine, this should be it.  Its forward guidance evolved at the end of last year.  The “considerable time” between the end of the asset purchase program, which it never called quantitative easing, and the first hike has been replaced with “patience”.…
Preview of the January FOMC Meeting and Beyond Preview of the January FOMC Meeting and Beyond Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 27, 2015 Rating: 5
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