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Great Graphic: Is the CRB Index Rolling Over?

March 28, 2016
This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, depicts the CRB Index, a basket of commodity prices.   The technical picture has deteriorated, and the price action in the coming sessions is particularly important in determining outlook.  
The CRB Index put in a double bottom.  On January 20 and February 11 lows were set just below 155.00.   The neckline …
Great Graphic: Is the CRB Index Rolling Over? Great Graphic: Is the CRB Index Rolling Over? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 28, 2016 Rating: 5
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Two Trade Anomalies

March 28, 2016
It is widely recognized that the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen has not lifted Japanese export volumes.  In December 2015, Japanese export volumes had fallen 4.4% year-over-year after rising 3.9% in December 2014 and 2.5% in December 2013. 
These are a number of explanations for this counter-intuitive result given the yen's past deprec…
Two Trade Anomalies Two Trade Anomalies Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 28, 2016 Rating: 5
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Dollar Lower to Start North American Session

March 28, 2016
The US dollar is mostly lower as the North American session is set to begin.  The holiday in many centers, especially in Europe, has limited activity, and a few orders seemed to drive prices., which remain within the recent ranges. 
The Japanese yen is the main exception.  The greenback's gains have been extended into the seventh session, the l…
Dollar Lower to Start North American Session Dollar Lower to Start North American Session Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 28, 2016 Rating: 5
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Four Keys to The Week Ahead

March 27, 2016
There are four events that will shape market psychology in the week ahead. They are Yellen's speech to the NY Economic Club, US jobs data, eurozone March CPI and PMI, and Japan's Tankan Survey.  
The broad backdrop is characterized by the rebuilding of risk appetites since the middle of February, though the MSCI emerging market equity index…
Four Keys to The Week Ahead Four Keys to The Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 27, 2016 Rating: 5
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Speculative Yen Longs Remain Near Record Levels

March 26, 2016
The most extreme speculative positioning, judging from the futures market is the long yen position. The bulls added another 3.4k contracts, lifting the gross long position to 82.8k contracts.  The record was set in 2008 at 94.7k contracts.  
The gross short position was trimmed by 4.5k contracts, leaving 29.5k. It is the smallest gross short positi…
Speculative Yen Longs Remain Near Record Levels Speculative Yen Longs Remain Near Record Levels Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 26, 2016 Rating: 5
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Greenback Finds Better Traction

March 26, 2016
The US dollar rose against all the major and most emerging market currencies last week.After selling off following the ECB and FOMC meetings, the dollar found better traction.  It was helped by widening interest rate differentials.  Regional Fed manufacturing surveys for March suggest the quarter is ending on a firm note.  With new orders rising, …
Greenback Finds Better Traction Greenback Finds Better Traction Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 26, 2016 Rating: 5
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The Dollar is having a Reasonably Good Friday

March 25, 2016
The holiday shutters most markets today.  Several Asian markets were open, and equities were narrowly mixed, with Japan and China posting small gains.  Most of the other local markets, including Australia, Korea and Taiwan slipped. 
The US dollar is trading with a firmer bias, but mostly, as one would expect, within yesterday's ranges.   Three …
The Dollar is having a Reasonably Good Friday The Dollar is having a Reasonably Good Friday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 25, 2016 Rating: 5
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