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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

April 30, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

EM FX ended last week on a mixed note.  Indeed, the week and the month were also very much mixed for EM, reflecting a variety of global and country-specific drivers impacting these countries.  This week’s US jobs data could bring Fed tightening back as a major driver for EM.  
We will also get the first snapshots of…
Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 30, 2017 Rating: 5
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Looking Through the FOMC Meeting as it Looks Past Poor Q1 GDP

April 30, 2017
A Federal Reserve meeting always draws market interest, as investors are on guard for policy signals.However, the statement from this week's meeting is likely to be devoid of new information.  It may tweak its economic assessment as the recent data warrants, including the continued improvement of the labor market, and better capital investment…
Looking Through the FOMC Meeting as it Looks Past Poor Q1 GDP Looking Through the FOMC Meeting as it Looks Past Poor Q1 GDP Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 30, 2017 Rating: 5
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Bulls Take Charge of 10-year Note Futures, while Sterling Bears Hang On

April 29, 2017
The striking development among speculators in the futures market is the reversal of the record gross (and net) short Treasury note position two months ago. The net position has now swung to the long side, and by the most in nine years.  
The bulls added 119.9k Treasury note contracts to raise the gross long position to 826.5k contracts.  Many bears…
Bulls Take Charge of 10-year Note Futures, while Sterling Bears Hang On Bulls Take Charge of 10-year Note Futures, while Sterling Bears Hang On Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 29, 2017 Rating: 5
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Dollar Remains the Fulcrum

April 29, 2017
Often the US dollar, as the numeraire, seems to be the main actor in the foreign exchange market.Other times, the dollar appears to be at the fulcrum between European currencies on one hand, and the dollar-bloc currencies on the other hand.  Another way expressing this is whether there is a dollar-move underway or is it really more about the cross…
Dollar Remains the Fulcrum Dollar Remains the Fulcrum Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 29, 2017 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

April 28, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

Moody's moved the outlook on Vietnam’s B1 rating from stable to positive.Nigeria’s central bank introduced a new FX window for portfolio investors.Moody’s moved the outlook on Romania’s Baa3 rating from positive to stable.Central Bank of Russia accelerated its easing cycle.Central Bank of Turkey delivered a hawk…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 28, 2017 Rating: 5
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Markets Limp into Month End

April 28, 2017
Equity markets are stalling into the end of the month. MSCI Asia-Pacific Index is snapping a six-day advance, and the week's gain was sufficient to extend the advancing streak for the fourth consecutive month.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is trading off for the second consecutive session, after rallying for six consecutive sessions.  Its 2.4% rall…
Markets Limp into Month End Markets Limp into Month End Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 28, 2017 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Gas and Oil

April 27, 2017
This Great Graphic, made on Bloomberg, shows the past six months of oil and gas prices.  The white line is the June gasoline futures and the yellow line is the June light sweet crude oil futures contract.  In order to avoid showing two time series with two different scales, which often is an exercise in curve fitting, both series are indexed to st…
Great Graphic: Gas and Oil Great Graphic: Gas and Oil Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 27, 2017 Rating: 5
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Draghi Does Nothing and Talks about It

April 27, 2017
As widely expected, the ECB left its key rates and asset purchase plan intact.  It reiterated its forward guidance that rates will remain at present levels or lower.  
Draghi was more confident about the economy, suggesting that the downside risks had further diminished.  They are more closely to balanced, which sets up the potential for additional…
Draghi Does Nothing and Talks about It Draghi Does Nothing and Talks about It Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 27, 2017 Rating: 5
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