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Speculative Positioning in the Currency Futures

April 30, 2018
Sentiment has swung back in favor of the dollar.   The price action has forced many non-believers to take seriously the possibility that interest rates do ultimately matter and the perceived desire of the Trump Administration does not stand in the way of a stronger dollar.  
Speculative market positioning is slower to change, and that is what the C…
Speculative Positioning in the Currency Futures Speculative Positioning in the Currency Futures Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 30, 2018 Rating: 5
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Merger Monday

April 30, 2018
Three large corporate deals were announced.   T-Mobile appears to have finally figured a way to secure Sprint.  It is a $26.5 bln equity tie-up.  Marathon Petroleum is reportedly taking Andeavor for $20  bln in cash and stock.  Sainsbury is reportedly in advanced talks to buy Walmart's Asda chain for GBP7.3 bln (~$10 bln) in an equity and cash…
Merger Monday Merger Monday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 30, 2018 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

April 29, 2018
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

EM FX ended Friday on a firm note, capping off a generally softer week overall. TRY and PHP were the best performers last week, while CLP and ZAR were the worst. US core PCE, ISM manufacturing, FOMC meeting, and jobs data all pose risks to EM this week. We remain a bit defensive on risk assets in general now.
Korea …
Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 29, 2018 Rating: 5
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Next Week in Context

April 29, 2018
A year ago, the Dutch and French elections signaled that UK referendum to leave the EU and the US election of Trump did not usher in a populist-nationalist epoch, such as the one that proceeded the last great financial crisis.  The euro gapped higher and did not look back.  
We have contended that Macron's victory, in particular, sparked a corr…
Next Week in Context Next Week in Context Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 29, 2018 Rating: 5
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Did Dollar Bears Overstay Their Welcome?

April 28, 2018
Sentiment has swung in the US dollar's favor faster than speculators can adjust positions.  This has seen a surge in the greenback that pushed it outside of the Bollinger Bands (two standard deviations around the 20-day moving average).  The poor close before the weekend warns that a consolidative or corrective phase may be at hand.  
The conti…
Did Dollar Bears Overstay Their Welcome? Did Dollar Bears Overstay Their Welcome? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 28, 2018 Rating: 5
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Dollar Puts Finishing Touches on Best Week Since November 2016

April 27, 2018
The US dollar's recent gains have been extended, and it is having one of its best weeks since November 2016.  The Dollar Index is up 1.7% for the week, as US session is about to start.  Though it took this week's gains to change market's narrative, the fact of the matter, as we have pointed out is that April is the third consecutive mo…
Dollar Puts Finishing Touches on Best Week Since November 2016 Dollar Puts Finishing Touches on Best Week Since November 2016 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 27, 2018 Rating: 5
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When Doves Cry

April 26, 2018
The BOJ's two-day meeting concludes tomorrow.  For all practical purposes, there is no chance of a change in policy.  At last week's G20 meeting Kuroda made it clear that the aggressive stance is needed for some time.  He was quoted in the papers saying, "There is still a long way to achieve the 2% inflation target, but risks are skew…
When Doves Cry When Doves Cry Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 26, 2018 Rating: 5
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ECB Maintains Course, Check Back in June

April 26, 2018
The ECB's initial statement that accompanied the announcement of no change in rates or the pace of asset purchases was as expected.  The ECB will continue to buy 30 bln euros a month until the end of September ("or beyond if necessary").  It kept the conditionality of ending its purchases intact: "until the Governing Council see…
ECB Maintains Course, Check Back in June ECB Maintains Course, Check Back in June Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 26, 2018 Rating: 5
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Euro Remains Soft Ahead of Draghi

April 26, 2018
The euro made a marginal new low early in European turnover and held barely above the spike low on March 1 to $1.2155.  So far, today is the first session since January 11 that the euro has not traded above $1.22. 
The euro stabilized as the European morning progressed, but there seems to be little real buying interest it ahead of Draghi's pres…
Euro Remains Soft Ahead of Draghi Euro Remains Soft Ahead of Draghi Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 26, 2018 Rating: 5
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ECB Hardly Shaken, Barely Stirred

April 25, 2018
The ECB meeting concludes tomorrow.  There is little doubt about what it is going to do:  nothing.  Uncertainty around its asset purchase plan and its economic assessment are also minor. 
The current 30 bln euro a month of asset purchases will continue through September.  The market has come around to our view that the purchases will be tapered fur…
ECB Hardly Shaken, Barely Stirred ECB Hardly Shaken, Barely Stirred Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 25, 2018 Rating: 5
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Dollar Regains Luster, but Consolidation Likely Ahead of Key Events and Data Dollar Regains Luster, but Consolidation Likely Ahead of Key Events and Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 25, 2018 Rating: 5
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Oil: Supply and Demand Drivers

April 24, 2018
Oil prices have recovered more than 50% of the decline since the mid-September peak.  The next retracement objectives are found near $82 a barrel for Brent and $76.5 for WTI basis the continuation futures contract.   
The immediate consideration is that supplies have tightened.  OPEC compliance to its agreement has exceeded targets, and Venezuelan …
Oil: Supply and Demand Drivers Oil: Supply and Demand Drivers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 24, 2018 Rating: 5
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