Marc to Market

Inflating Inflation Expectations

Marc Chandler December 30, 2020

Rising prices feature in many economic forecasts for the US. It is seen as part of the reflation meme as the vaccines roll out. There seem to be three threads to the discussion. The first is practically mathematically certain. Economists refer to it as the base effect. As the pandemic struck and the economy shut down, prices fell. Headline C…

Inflating Inflation Expectations

Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 30, 2020 Rating: 5

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Of Trade Deficits and Capital Surpluses

Marc Chandler December 28, 2020

In the middle of 2020, foreign investors owned a little more than $13 trillion more of US assets (stocks, bonds, and brick-and-mortar) than Americans owned of foreign assets.It is the other side of chronic current account deficits, the broad measure of trade. By this measure, the US is the world's largest debtor. It spurs much teeth-gnashing…

Of Trade Deficits and Capital Surpluses

Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 28, 2020 Rating: 5

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The Dollar's Evolving Outlook

Marc Chandler December 22, 2020

The foreign exchange market sees an average daily turnover of something on the magnitude of $6.6 trillion a day. In a week, the turnover is sufficient to more than cover world trade for a year. It is the largest of the capital markets. Trends in the currency market can last for years. A little more than a year ago, we concluded that the dollar…

The Dollar's Evolving Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 22, 2020 Rating: 5

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Cool Video: A Look Ahead to 2021

Marc Chandler December 22, 2020
I joined Ben Lichtenstein, host of the morning futures program at TDAmeritrade. It is in the futures market that I began my career, and where I gained respect for local traders, who do not have a large institutional backing such as a bank or hedge fund, and are trading their own capital, and taking the risk often from those institutional particip…

Cool Video: A Look Ahead to 2021 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 22, 2020 Rating: 5

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Happy Holidays

Marc Chandler December 21, 2020
No daily commentary until the New Year, but watch this space for thematic pieces over the next two weeks. Here is to a safe, healthy, and prosperous 2021. Thank you for your support.

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Happy Holidays Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 21, 2020 Rating: 5

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Does Key Reversal in S&P 500 Put the Santa Claus Rally at Risk?

Marc Chandler December 20, 2020
It was another difficult week for the greenback, which moved lower against all the major currencies. The Scandis led it, helped by risk-on appetites and Norway's central bank penciling in its first rate hike around mid-2022. The hope of a UK-EU deal appears to have spurred short-covering, which lifted sterling to new 2.5-year highs, though p…

Does Key Reversal in S&P 500 Put the Santa Claus Rally at Risk? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 20, 2020 Rating: 5

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The Week Ahead: Balancing Near-Term Fears with Medium-Term Optimism

Marc Chandler December 19, 2020
A holiday-shortened week will see dwindling participation. The lighter activity could make for either subdued price action or volatile activity. Brexit is a gift that keeps giving, and despite posturing to the contrary, neither side appears to want to be seen as the party that walked away. After much teeth-gnashing and finger-pointing, the US st…

The Week Ahead: Balancing Near-Term Fears with Medium-Term Optimism Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 19, 2020 Rating: 5

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Cautious Ahead of the Weekend

Marc Chandler December 18, 2020
Overview: Investors have turned cautious ahead of the weekend. The US dollar is firmer, stocks are struggling, bond yields are higher, and gold and oil are consolidating. Profit-taking was seen in Asia Pacific equities, and even New Zealand, which reported its trade deficit flipped to a surplus in November, was unable to resist the profit-taking…

Cautious Ahead of the Weekend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 18, 2020 Rating: 5