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Eerie Calm in FX Market

February 11, 2025
(On a business trip and attending Trade Tech FX USA in Miami.  Commentary to resume with the Week Ahead on February 15.) Overview: The US announced that the 25% steel and aluminum tariffs will not be effective for a month (March 12), and this gives the impression that they are a negotiating tactic, which may help explain why there has been a muted…
Eerie Calm in FX Market Eerie Calm in FX Market Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 11, 2025 Rating: 5
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USD Surrenders Most Gains Seen after Trump Threatens Steel and Aluminum Tariffs USD Surrenders Most Gains Seen after Trump Threatens Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 10, 2025 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: Firm US CPI may Underpin Dollar, Barring New Drama from Washington Week Ahead:  Firm US CPI may Underpin Dollar, Barring New Drama from Washington Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 08, 2025 Rating: 5
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Downside Risks on January Jobs Data, but Benchmark Revisions may Not be as Bad as Feared Downside Risks on January Jobs Data, but Benchmark Revisions may Not be as Bad as Feared Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 07, 2025 Rating: 5
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The Dollar Comes Back Bid

February 06, 2025
Overview:  After the tariff scare on Monday, which saw the US dollar surge, it has pulled back in the last couple of day. But it has returned bid today in what looks like position-squaring ahead of tomorrow US employment report. Despite some Fed officials recognizing that the tariffs may pose a supply shock that has to be taken into account, the o…
The Dollar Comes Back Bid The  Dollar Comes Back Bid Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 06, 2025 Rating: 5
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Yen Leads Further Unwinding of the Dollar's Tariff-Threat Inspired Gains

February 05, 2025
Overview: The US dollar is trading heavily as the pullback from tariff-threat extreme continues. It is weakest against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies. Stronger than expected wage growth and softer US 10-year yields has driven the yen to new highs for the year, to lead the major currencies with more than a 1% gain. The w…
Yen Leads Further Unwinding of the Dollar's Tariff-Threat Inspired Gains Yen Leads Further Unwinding of the Dollar's Tariff-Threat Inspired Gains Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 05, 2025 Rating: 5
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Brinkmanship and Theater

February 04, 2025
Overview: After yesterday's wild gyrations, the foreign exchange market is calm. US dollar losses seen as the tariffs on Mexico and Canada were postponed with what many observers see as minor concessions, though Canada is going to have a fentanyl czar have not been extended, and a consolidative tone has emerged. The 10% tariffs om China were i…
Brinkmanship and Theater Brinkmanship and Theater Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 04, 2025 Rating: 5
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Tariffs Roil Markets

February 03, 2025
Overview: The US made good on its threats to levy 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% tariffs on China. There still seems to be skepticism in the market, with many thinking the tariffs on Canada and Mexico may not last the week. Trump will reportedly talk with Trudeau and Sheinbaum today. The dollar did not trade high so much it was marked s…
Tariffs Roil Markets Tariffs Roil Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 03, 2025 Rating: 5
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February 2025 Monthly

February 01, 2025
There is great uncertainty for investors and policymakers. The magnitude and timing of U.S. tariffs are not clear. China unveiled DeepSeek, which appears to give other advanced language model AIs a run for their money and calls into question the effectiveness of technology curbs. While Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the war in the Middle East, …
February 2025 Monthly February 2025 Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 01, 2025 Rating: 5
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