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Great Graphic: Is Euro-Yen Telling Us Something about Dollar-Yen?

June 30, 2014
This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows the euro-yen (white line) and dollar-yen (yellow line) over the past three months indexed to April 1.  What it seems to show is that euro-yen has been leading dollar-yen.  The euro tends to peak and bottom before the dollar does against the yen. 
This is particularly noteworthy because the euro is has…
Great Graphic: Is Euro-Yen Telling Us Something about Dollar-Yen? Great Graphic: Is Euro-Yen Telling Us Something about Dollar-Yen? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 30, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

June 30, 2014
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
EM currencies have firmed over the past week, confirming our view that the global backdrop remains supportive for risk appetite. There is some negative headline risk from Argentina (see below) as well as general geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but risk sentiment has generally held up well and has recovered…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 30, 2014 Rating: 5
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The Week Ahead is about Clarity

June 29, 2014
The low volatility of the capital markets should not be confused with high confidence by investors at the moment.  The outlook for the US economy has been clouded by the unexpectedly large drop in Q1GDP and weak real consumption in April and May.  
There is great uncertainty over the world's second largest economy and the extent that the weakne…
The Week Ahead is about Clarity The Week Ahead is about Clarity Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 29, 2014 Rating: 5
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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Dollar Shakes, but will it Break? Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Dollar Shakes, but will it Break? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 28, 2014 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Solar Roadways: Is the Future Now?

June 28, 2014
Check out this Cool Video; a compelling five minute articulation of a vision to cover various surfaces, like roads, driveways, parking lots with solar panels.  It pulls together various technologies that already exist.    
Some critics worry about the materials to be used, or the efficiency of photovoltaic cells or the practicality of covering road…
Cool Video: Solar Roadways: Is the Future Now? Cool Video: Solar Roadways: Is the Future Now? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 28, 2014 Rating: 5
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German Inflation Ticks Up: Implications for EMU and ECB

June 27, 2014
German consumer prices rose more than expected in June.  This was immediately reflected in the recovery of the euro from the session lows toward the highs, albeit within the narrow quarter cent range.  
The preliminary EU harmonized measure rose 0.4%, twice what consensus expected.  That helped lift the year-over-year rate to 1.0% from 0.6%.  
In tu…
German Inflation Ticks Up: Implications for EMU and ECB German Inflation Ticks Up: Implications for EMU and ECB Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 27, 2014 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Second Part of Boom Bust Interview

June 27, 2014
This Cool Video is the second part of my interview with Erin Ade on Boom Bust program on RTV.
Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns is anchoring this segment.  For full disclosure, Ed has been very helpful in helping me navigate the social media, and his own efforts have been an inspiration.  
We discuss what the ECB is doing and the dollar-bloc a bi…
Cool Video: Second Part of Boom Bust Interview Cool Video: Second Part of Boom Bust Interview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 27, 2014 Rating: 5
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Yen Advances Mostly on Treasury Rally

June 27, 2014
Most of the major currencies are little changed against the dollar today. The yen is the main exception. The greenback appears poised to finished the week below the 200-day moving average against the yen for the first time since late 2012 (~JPY101.70).
The main impetus does not appear to be coming from Japan but from the drop in US Treasury yie…
Yen Advances Mostly on Treasury Rally Yen Advances Mostly on Treasury Rally Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 27, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What Has Changed

June 26, 2014
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
1) The Australian Bureau of Meteorology softened its forecast for El Niño
2) China stocks rose as the first IPOs in four months were well-received
3) Czech central bank said the koruna cap won’t be scrapped before Q2 2015
4) Russian lawmakers rescinded authority for him to use force in Ukraine
5) South Africa’s pla…
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed Emerging Markets: What Has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 26, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: US Crude Oil Exports Fifteen Year Highs, but....

June 26, 2014
This Great Graphic, posted by Sumit Roy on Hard Assets, is based on data from the US Energy Information Administration.  It shows the surge in US crude oil exports.  They totaled more than 250k barrels a day in April, a 15-month high or about 3% of the 8.2 mln barrels a day produced in the US in March.  
Ironically, US has banned crude oil exports …
Great Graphic: US Crude Oil Exports Fifteen Year Highs, but.... Great Graphic: US Crude Oil Exports Fifteen Year Highs, but.... Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 26, 2014 Rating: 5
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Dollar Mixed, Sterling Recovers

June 26, 2014
The US dollar is mixed. The dollar-bloc currencies remain firm, led by New Zealand dollar and prospects of more RBNZ tightening. The US dollar is threatening to fall through the CAD1.07 level and head toward the next target seen near CAD1.0650.
For its part, the Aussie is flat, just above $0.9400, but is resilient in the face of Moody's warn…
Dollar Mixed, Sterling Recovers Dollar Mixed, Sterling Recovers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 26, 2014 Rating: 5
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Refresher: CPI and the PCE Deflator

June 25, 2014
On Thursday, the US Department of Commerce will publish the May estimate of personal consumption expenditure deflator. Last week, investors learned that the consumer price index rose at its fastest rate in two years.
Since extraordinary monetary policy measures were taken, some observers have warned of inflation risks lurking around every corne…
Refresher: CPI and the PCE Deflator Refresher: CPI and the PCE Deflator Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 25, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Austerity and Employment

June 25, 2014
The economies of most high income countries remains below the pre-crisis peaks.  The US, Germany, and it now appears, the UK, are the notable exceptions.  On the eve of the EU summit, there continues to be a debate over fiscal policy.

The rise of anti-EU parties in the European parliament election has strengthening calls to permit even more flexibi…
Great Graphic: Austerity and Employment Great Graphic: Austerity and Employment Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 25, 2014 Rating: 5
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FX: Watching Paint Dry?

June 25, 2014
The foreign exchange market is becalmed. No, seriously. The euro has been confined to less than a 20 pip range (1/5 of a penny), and the dollar has not moved out of a 15 tick range against the yen (about 1/1000 of a penny).
Sterling is in a somewhat larger range (~35 pips) as the market tries to make sense of the so-called time inconsistencies …
FX: Watching Paint Dry? FX: Watching Paint Dry? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 25, 2014 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Boom Bust With Erin Ade

June 24, 2014
Erin Ade of RTV interviewed me yesterday for her Boom Bust show. We touched on various issues, including sterling, which I cautioned against chasing, preferring to look for a pullback. 
There is also an interview here with Marshall Auerback (Director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking) on Hyman Minski.   Click here for the video on Hulu o…
Cool Video: Boom Bust With Erin Ade Cool Video: Boom Bust With Erin Ade Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 24, 2014 Rating: 5
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Momentous EU Summit

June 24, 2014
There are two big issues for the EU heads of state meeting at the end of this week: A review of the fiscal plans and structural reforms of member countries and the appointment of the EC President, following the recent EU parliamentary elections. To the chagrin of many observers, especially in Berlin, the attempt some countries, like France and I…
Momentous EU Summit Momentous EU Summit Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 24, 2014 Rating: 5
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