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A Word on Q3 COFER--It Might not be What You Think

Marc Chandler December 31, 2018

The IMF offers the most authoritative report on central bank reserves on a quarterly basis with a quarter lag. The report, the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), covering Q318 has been released. It may be have been overlooked during the holidays, but if and when the pundits see it, the leading takeaway is that t…

A Word on Q3 COFER--It Might not be What You Think Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 31, 2018 Rating: 5

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Technical Musings about the Euro and Dollar Anchored by Macro

Marc Chandler December 29, 2018
The $1.1475-$1.1550 is an important area for the euro. Many bulls see a rounded bottom being carved and a break above it would be embraced as a confirmation. The lower-end corresponds to the 100-day moving average. Such a bottom pattern, if confirmed, would project toward $1.1800 the high in H2 18. On the downside, the low from H2 18 was near …

Technical Musings about the Euro and Dollar Anchored by Macro Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 29, 2018 Rating: 5

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Week Winding Down on Firm Note, but Wild Ride may Not Be Over

Marc Chandler December 28, 2018
Overview: The biggest reversal in the S&P 500 since 2010, allowing it to string the biggest two-day rally in three years helped lift Asian and European shares today. All the Asia-Pacific equity markets advanced today but Japan, where the strength of the yen saw the Nikkei and Topix buck the move. European equities. The 1.4% rally in the Do…

Week Winding Down on Firm Note, but Wild Ride may Not Be Over Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 28, 2018 Rating: 5

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Some Thoughts on What is Happening

Marc Chandler December 27, 2018
People do not just disagree on what should and will happen, but they disagree on what has happened. As William Faulkner instructed: "The past is not dead. Actually, it's not even past. This is clear in the narratives about the sharp drop in equity markets.
It seems that the most common explanation places the onus on the Federal Reserve…

Some Thoughts on What is Happening Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 27, 2018 Rating: 5

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Mnuchin Double Checks, Some Scoff but US Shares are Higher

Marc Chandler December 24, 2018
Overview: It is not the eggnog or rum balls giving traders indigestion on Christmas Eve, but disruptive impulses from the US. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin tried to put to rest reports that President Trump wants to fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Mnuchin indicated that the President recognizes legal limitations. The US Treasury Department also…

Mnuchin Double Checks, Some Scoff but US Shares are Higher Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 24, 2018 Rating: 5

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2019: The Last Year for the Millennium to be a Teenager

Marc Chandler December 23, 2018
The year may be drawing to a close, but it is not clear that Annus Horribilis for investors will end. The projection of the 2017 synchronized growth upturn into 2018 hit the shoals of the business cycle. The fiscal stimulus gave the US an adrenalin rush, lifting growth to an average annualized pace of 3.8% in Q2 and Q3, but many models, based o…

2019: The Last Year for the Millennium to be a Teenager Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 23, 2018 Rating: 5

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Scrooge Rules

Marc Chandler December 22, 2018
It was a difficult week for investors. Our anticipation of a Santa Claus rally at the end of November proved wide of the mark. Instead, the MSCI World Index of developed markets is off around 9% this month with a three-week decline in tow. Emerging markets have fared a bit better. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has also fallen for three consec…

Scrooge Rules Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 22, 2018 Rating: 5

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Markets Stumble into the Weekend

Marc Chandler December 21, 2018
Overview: There is little reprieve from the equity meltdown ahead of the weekend. Major markets in the Asia-Pacific region, including Japan, China, India, and Australia pushed lower. The MSCI index of the region is near 15-month lows. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off about 0.6% near midday in London to make new two-year lows. US shares are also…

Markets Stumble into the Weekend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 21, 2018 Rating: 5

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Forex Forensics: The Case of the Yen

Marc Chandler December 20, 2018
Over the past five sessions, the yen is the strongest of the major currencies, appreciating about 1.7% against the US dollar, eclipsing the Swedish krona, which rallied strongly today after the Riksbank's surprise rate hike. Given the sell-off in equities and the decline in markets, the yen's strength is not surprising. What was surprisi…

Forex Forensics: The Case of the Yen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 20, 2018 Rating: 5