Germany's CDU/Merkel Lose the Mo'

Germany holds national elections on Sept 27. It has long been anticipated that the grand coalition of CDU and SPD would end with the CDU possibly forming a coalition with the FDP. However, the recent polls and last weekend's elections warn that of a risk that a grand coalition may be the only logical outcome.

The latest Emnid poll shows the CDU/FDP are polling less than 50% of the vote, with the CDU slipping 2 percentage points to 34% and the FDP steady at 14%. Support for the SPD rose 2 percentage points to 26%.

In last weekend elections, the CDU increased its hold on Saxony and the FDP will replace the SPD in the state's government. However, that is where the good news for the CDU ends. The Left Party did well in Saarland (21.3% from 2.3%), where its leader hails from and Thuringia (already the second strongest party), where the premier had been involved in a tragic ski accident that killed a woman. After his defeat he resigned.

Thus far, it did not appear that the party extremes in Europe, the US etc, have been able to capitalize on the crisis, but the Left Party's success is indeed noteworthy. It is particularly strong in the East and is polling 10% nationally.

Politics, as the saying goes, sometimes makes for strange bedfellows. While no one seems to like the grand coalition, the electoral outcomes on the state level lend itself to unusual and sometimes unprecedented coalitions, like CDU/Liberal/Green "Jamaica" coalition.

On a national level these developments the possibility of a SPD/Green/Left coalition. The personal rivalry and perhaps the hubris of small differences would necessarily make for a stable coalition. However, even in lieu of a coalition, the electoral outcome and polls may see the SPD drift to the left.