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Divergence Update: Global Monetary Policy Cycles

November 05, 2015
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
The global investment environment continues to be driven largely by divergences in central bank policies. This holds true not just across Developed Markets, but Emerging Markets as well.  We thought it would be helpful to summarize our expectations of central bank policies going forward.
December is s…
Divergence Update: Global Monetary Policy Cycles Divergence Update: Global Monetary Policy Cycles Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 05, 2015 Rating: 5
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Not Your Normal Hump Day

November 03, 2015
Wednesday may begin off slowly in Asia though featuring the largest IPO of the year in the form of Japan Post, but it may very well prove to be one of the most important days of the month. Caixin's service and composite PMIs for China are due.  
As the Europe gets under way, the eurozone and UK service PMIs and composites also will be reported.…
Not Your Normal Hump Day Not Your Normal Hump Day Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 03, 2015 Rating: 5
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A Few Brief Thoughts on FX

November 02, 2015
(Business trip is nearly over, back in time for the jobs data)
1.  The US-German 2-year interest rate differential (swap rate) is a useful directional guide to the euro-dollar exchange rate.  At about 105 bp it is the highest since 2005.  The US premium had peaked in late 2004 near 185 bp.  In the second half of the 1990s, it was not uncommon for t…
A Few Brief Thoughts on FX A Few Brief Thoughts on FX Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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China and the Pull of the SDR

November 02, 2015
(I write a monthly column for a Chinese paper.  Here is a draft of this month's column) 
Sometimes the mountain peak is clearer from the valley than from the summit.  It may be easier to understand the changes in China’s currency regime if we take a step away and try to look at the big picture.  To find our path we need to clear away some under…
China and the Pull of the SDR China and the Pull of the SDR Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

November 02, 2015
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

EM starts the week on a mixed footing.  Turkey is the star performer from the surprise result of the elections that ended the period of political uncertainty, but there was limited spill over to other EM markets.  Energy prices are still under pressure, weighing on sentiment.  On the other hand, pros…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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The Week Ahead: Building Expectations

November 01, 2015
A critical driver in the foreign exchange market, and the global capital markets more generally, is the continued preparation by the Federal Reserve for a rate hike, while many other central banks, including the ECB, warn investors that more accommodative monetary policy may be necessary. In the days ahead, the economic data and official speeches …
The Week Ahead: Building Expectations The Week Ahead: Building Expectations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 01, 2015 Rating: 5
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