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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

May 04, 2015
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
EM assets remain on the defensive now that the dollar has regained some traction on the back of some firmer US data last week.  This Friday’s US jobs report will be key to determining whether the dollar’s current bounce can be sustained.  The 10-year UST yield has climbed above 2.10% for the first time since mid-Mar…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 04, 2015 Rating: 5
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Euro Slips as Big Week Starts Slowly

May 04, 2015
The US dollar is narrowly mixed to start the new week.  Both Tokyo and London markets are closed today making for somewhat lighter turnover.  The dollar has been confined to about a quarter of a yen above JPY120.00.  
It is the euro that stands out.  It has lost almost 0.5%, has dragged the Swiss franc with it.  Recall at the end of last week, the …
Euro Slips as Big Week Starts Slowly Euro Slips as Big Week Starts Slowly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 04, 2015 Rating: 5
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Three Events will Shape the Path Ahead

May 03, 2015
The beginning of a new month starts the usual cycle of economic data.  Among these only the US employment report is significant.  A weak report would not only rule out a June hike by the Fed, but would call a September move to question as well. A strong report could mark the return of the dollar bulls after taking a six-week spring vacation.  
In a…
Three Events will Shape the Path Ahead Three Events will Shape the Path Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 03, 2015 Rating: 5
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Dollar's Demise Exaggerated: Technicals Anticipate Turn in Fundamentals

May 02, 2015
Yogi Berra, one of the keenest observers of the human condition, is said to have once remarked "It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future." And so it is.
Between the middle of last December and the middle of March, the Dollar Index rallied 14.7%. It then fell 6.2%. A 50% retracement would bring it to 94.00, which had ge…
Dollar's Demise Exaggerated: Technicals Anticipate Turn in Fundamentals Dollar's Demise Exaggerated: Technicals Anticipate Turn in Fundamentals Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Euro and German Bund--One Trade?

May 01, 2015
Over the past several months, the German bund has rallied and the euro has fallen.  This Great Graphic from Bloomberg illustrates the co-movement.  The 10-year bund yield is the white line.  It fell from almost 1.5% to nearly zero. During the same time, the euro, depicted by the yellow line, fell from around $1.40 to $1.05. 
The correlation is near…
Great Graphic: Euro and German Bund--One Trade? Great Graphic: Euro and German Bund--One Trade? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 01, 2015 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

May 01, 2015
(from my colleagues Dr Win Thin and Ilan Solot)


1) Unconventional policy measure in China could be on the table  2) Poland sold sells its first international bond with a negative yield 3) Indonesia executed eight people over drug charges, seven of which were foreigners 4) Russia’s central Bank stepped up its pace of easing, cutting rates 150 bp to 12.…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 01, 2015 Rating: 5
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Dollar Rout Narrows to Euro Correction

May 01, 2015
The broad-based dollar sell-off this week has considerably narrowed. The dollar's losses have become move concentrated in the post-FOMC sessions with just the euro sustaining the momentum and extending this week's gains. 
This still seems like a large position adjustment.   Judging from the speculative positioning in the futures market, the…
Dollar Rout Narrows to Euro Correction Dollar Rout Narrows to Euro Correction Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 01, 2015 Rating: 5
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