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Week Ahead: Rising US Rates Underpin Greenback

May 16, 2026
The US economy appears to be re-accelerating here in Q2 after nearly grinding to a halt in Q1 (0.5% annualized pace). April US CPI and PPI were more elevated than expected. The anticipated average effective Fed funds rate in December rose more than 15 bp in the past week and is up slightly more than 75 bp since the war on Iran began. The Dollar In…
Week Ahead: Rising US Rates Underpin Greenback Week Ahead: Rising US Rates Underpin Greenback Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 16, 2026 Rating: 5
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Greenback Breaks Higher, Stocks and Bonds Lower

May 15, 2026
The US dollar has extended its gains against most currencies today. What is seen as a successful US-China summit and a swing in expectations for Fed policy are aiding the greenback. The anticipated year-end effective Fed funds rate has risen by a dozen basis points this week and the two-year Treasury yield is up 16 bp this week and is the fourth w…
Greenback Breaks Higher, Stocks and Bonds Lower Greenback Breaks Higher, Stocks and Bonds Lower Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 15, 2026 Rating: 5
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US Dollar Threatening to Break Higher

May 14, 2026
The US dollar is trading quietly against the major currencies. The euro is holding above $1.17 and sterling is holding above $1.35, but the market does not appear done probing these support areas.  The greenback has also traded as close to JPY158 as possible without going over. This is where the Bank of Japan may have intervened last week. In the …
US Dollar Threatening to Break Higher US Dollar Threatening to Break Higher Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 14, 2026 Rating: 5
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The Euro and Sterling are Threatening to Break Lower, while a Record Current Account Surplus Does not Prevent the Yen from Challenging Intervention Levels

May 13, 2026
The lack of progress in re-opening the Strait of Hormuz has not prevented oil prices from stabilizing or risk-appetites improving today. Equities and bonds are trading with a firmer bias. The Trump-Xi meeting tomorrow is key talking point today. Ahead of it, the PBOC set the dollar’s reference rate at a new three-year low. US Treasury Secretary Be…
The Euro and Sterling are Threatening to Break Lower, while a Record Current Account Surplus Does not Prevent the Yen from Challenging Intervention Levels The Euro and Sterling are Threatening to Break Lower, while a Record Current Account Surplus Does not Prevent the Yen from Challenging Intervention Levels Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 13, 2026 Rating: 5
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Ceasefire is on "Life Support": Saps Risk Appetites, Buoys the Greenback

May 12, 2026
The uncertainty about the US-Iran fragile ceasefire, which President Trump has said is on “life support” is weighing on risk-taking appetites today. Brent and WTI are up over $3 and bonds and stocks have been sold. The US dollar is firmer against the G10 currencies but the Norwegian krone. Most emerging market currencies are lower. Ahead of the Xi…
Ceasefire is on "Life Support": Saps Risk Appetites, Buoys the Greenback Ceasefire is on "Life Support": Saps Risk Appetites, Buoys the Greenback Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 12, 2026 Rating: 5
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Monday Blues: US Negotiating Tactic or Ceasefire may End

May 11, 2026
News that the US rejected Iran’s counter-proposal is set the tone for today’s session. The dollar is mostly firmer, though the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone are slightly firmer. Equities are mostly lower, yields, higher, alongside oil. Appreciating the seeming reluctance of the US to renew “kinetic” operations, the North American market may …
Monday Blues: US Negotiating Tactic or Ceasefire may End Monday Blues: US Negotiating Tactic or Ceasefire may End Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 11, 2026 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: Trump-Xi and US-China CPI

May 09, 2026
There were several developments to note last week, but arguably the most important was that investors are optimistic that the Middle East war is winding down despite some violations of the ceasefire. June WTI fell by 7% to around $95 a barrel, after rising by more than 22% in the previous two weeks. July Brent tumbled by about 6.6% to $101 a barre…
Week Ahead: Trump-Xi and US-China CPI Week Ahead: Trump-Xi and US-China CPI Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 09, 2026 Rating: 5
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