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Firmer US Rates Help the Dollar Steady

September 12, 2025
Overview: After yesterday's decline following the CPI and jump in weekly jobless claims, the dollar has steadied today, even if the upticks are not so inspiring. US rates have steadied. The 10-year yield frayed the 4% threshold for the first time in five months but settled a little above it. Today it is a couple of basis points firmer around 4…
Firmer US Rates Help the Dollar Steady Firmer US Rates Help the Dollar Steady Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 12, 2025 Rating: 5
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ECB Meeting may be a Non-Event, US CPI is Key

September 11, 2025
Overview: The US dollar enjoys a firmer today ahead of the CPI and ECB meeting outcome. After falling to a new low for the year against the Chinese yuan earlier today, it has recovered and is higher on the day. The market is pricing in almost a 10% chance of a 50 bp cut next week, but a rise in the headline CPI, the fourth in a row, can see this r…
ECB Meeting may be a Non-Event, US CPI is Key ECB Meeting may be a Non-Event, US CPI is Key Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 11, 2025 Rating: 5
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Deflation Continues to Grip China

September 10, 2025
Overview: The US dollar is trading quietly today, ahead of the August PPI, though with a weaker bias against most of the G10 currencies. The yen and Canadian dollar are the laggards. Two news developments are among the talking points. First, a federal judge temporarily blocked President Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Cook. …
Deflation Continues to Grip China Deflation Continues to Grip China Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 10, 2025 Rating: 5
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Could We Learn Today that the US Created Only Around Half the Number of Jobs in the Year through March as it Thought? Could We Learn Today that the US Created Only Around Half the Number of Jobs in the Year through March as it Thought? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 09, 2025 Rating: 5
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Japanese and French Politics Take Limelight for the Moment

September 08, 2025
Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating with a softer bias after the disappointing employment report before the weekend. The derivatives market is pricing in about a 10% chance of a 50 bp Fed cut next week, which still seems exaggerated given the likely uptick in headline CPI this week. The Japanese yen is the only G10 currency that is weaker…
Japanese and French Politics Take Limelight for the Moment Japanese and French Politics Take Limelight for the Moment Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 08, 2025 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: US CPI to Temper Aggressive Fed Rate Cut Speculation, French Political Intrigue and Possible Downgrade, while ECB Stands Pat

September 06, 2025
The poor US employment data fanned speculation of a 50 bp rate cut when the Fed meets on September 17. Even though more unwelcome news from the labor market is expected with next week's BLS annual benchmark revisions that could wipe out 500k-1 mln jobs (the adjustment last year was 818k lower), the risk of a large Fed cut may be exaggerated. A…
Week Ahead: US CPI to Temper Aggressive Fed Rate Cut Speculation, French Political Intrigue and Possible Downgrade, while ECB Stands Pat Week Ahead: US CPI to Temper Aggressive Fed Rate Cut Speculation, French Political Intrigue and Possible Downgrade, while ECB Stands Pat Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 06, 2025 Rating: 5
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Dollar Slumps Ahead of the Employment Report

September 05, 2025
Overview: The focus is on US employment today. Weak jobs growth and a tick up in the unemployment rate are expected to spur the Fed's first rate cut of the year in a couple of weeks. Position adjusting ahead of the report has weighed on the greenback broadly and overwhelmed the unexpectedly poor Germany factory orders and the data problem in U…
Dollar Slumps Ahead of the Employment Report Dollar Slumps Ahead of the Employment Report Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 05, 2025 Rating: 5
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