Dollar: Beach Ball Action with Jobs Data

US jobs data was largely in line with expectations, and the key take away is the divergence between the US on one hand and Europe and Japan on the other. 

Non-farm payrolls rose 214k and the back two months were revised up by 31k, putting the combined number at 245k, which is around the average for the last several months. 

The details were solid, even if not inspiring.  The unemployment rate slipped to 5.8%, even though the participation rate rose to 62.8% from 62.7%.  Hourly earnings rose 0.1% to keep the year-over-year rate unchanged at 2.0%, which is the 12-month average.    The work week stands at 34.6 hours, which is what it initially was in September before being revised to 34.5 hours.

Services drove the net new hiring, creating 181k jobs.   Manufacturing added 15k jobs, the most since July, and the Sept series was revised to show 9k new manufacturing jobs rather than 4k.

While it is tempting to read stronger growth into the jobs figures, we advise caution.  Recent trade and construction spending figures warn that Q3 GDP may be revised lower to 3% of just below, while Q4 GDP appears to be tracking something closer to 2.5% or a tough lower. 

Separately, Canada reported strong jobs data as well.  The consensus had expected a pullback after the outsized 74.1k increase in September.  Instead Canada grew 43.1k jobs.  Of these, 26.5 were full time jobs (69.3k in September).  Manufacturing jobs rose 33.2k.  Public sector jobs fell 52.8k.   The 22.2k loss of jobs in the resource sector were more than offset by the 36k increase in finance, insurance and 38.5k jobs in trade. 

The initial attempt to push the dollar down quickly fizzled.  Even though we are concerned about the over-extended nature of the technical indicators, the dollar's price action still is reminiscent of a beach ball being brought under water, only to shoot back up. 
Dollar: Beach Ball Action with Jobs Data Dollar:  Beach Ball Action with Jobs Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 07, 2014 Rating: 5
Powered by Blogger.