Ten Years After

The tenth anniversary of the Asian financial crisis is a cause for celebration. Aluminum is traditionally associated with ten-year anniversaries, and it seems to appropriately capture the essence of the changes that have transpired since the crisis.

The Incredible Shrinking Yen

Can nothing stop the yen from falling? It is the worst performing major currency against the dollar over the past week, losing almost 0.5% and 1.8% so far this month. It is trading at multi-year lows against other major currencies besides the dollar, like the euro, sterling and the Swiss franc. Its weakness against the New Zealand dollar has frustrated the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s efforts to cap its currency.

IMF takes a Major Step without Fanfare

Yesterday, the IMF announced its first update of its foreign exchange surveillance mechanism in three decades. Aside from some media coverage, which was generally descriptive in nature, there was little fanfare. Yet there seems to be potentially far-reaching implications that have yet to be grasped.

Testing Hypotheses

One of the criticisms often levied against the social sciences is that they cannot conduct experiments like the natural sciences. Yet, experimentation is not possible in all of the hard sciences, like parts of physics or astronomy. Even if experimentation is difficult in the social sciences, hypotheses can still be tested.

Is the End Nigh?

There has been a significant change in perceptions of the investment climate. Many have now recognized that far from slipping into a recession, the world’s biggest economy is accelerating. Rather than the prospect of lower interest rates, in the US, for the first time in a year, our warning that the Federal Reserve may still need to raise rates is increasingly becoming mainstream.