Alchemy: Oil and Water into Food

The incredible rally in a broad range of commodity prices has captured the imagination of many and is creating a cruel dilemma for policy makers who need to be concerned about inflation even as economic momentum wanes. The April G7 statement seemed to recognize that the volatility of the dollar may be aggravating the move and prompted them to seek more stable foreign exchange markets.

The Fate of the G8 and China

The market has long regarded the periodic G8 meetings as largely photo opportunities. It has been nearly two decades since monetary policy was coordinated. Although it appeared to provide a useful forum for coordination of attempts to curb the financing of terrorism, it may have outlived its usefulness as currently conceived. Like the weighted voting at the IMF, the G8 no longer reflects the the distribution of economic power.

Why the Fed is Right and the Market Wrong

There is an epic struggle going on between the Federal Reserve and the markets. The Federal Reserve has been very clear of its views. Growth will pick up later this year as the main headwinds fade. Price pressures, while elavated, will likely moderate. It sees the main risk to this benign scenario is that inflation does not ease.

Currency Bulls Still in Driver's Seat

Since early March there has been a clear trend toward a lower US dollar. Made vulnerable by the extended positioning, and frustrated by the stalling of downside momentum, the stronger than expected ISM data provided the spark for a bout of short-covering. The dollar’s recovery was been cut short by the weaker than expected US employment data.