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Week Ahead: All but Oil, Nonplussed over the New Phase in Israel-Iran War

June 21, 2025
The Israel-Iran war continues, but outside of oil, the capital markets have barely reacted. WTI rose by about 2.7% last week after a 13% rally the previous week. It reached levels not seen since early January. The average retail price of unleaded gasoline has risen by almost 2.5% this month. The price of gold fell by nearly 2% last week, its first…
Week Ahead: All but Oil, Nonplussed over the New Phase in Israel-Iran War Week Ahead: All but Oil, Nonplussed over the New Phase in Israel-Iran War Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 21, 2025 Rating: 5
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Dollar Comes Back Softer ahead of FOMC Outcome

June 18, 2025
(Commentary resumes with the weekly outlook on June 21) Overview: Yesterday's dollar buying seen in the North American afternoon appears to have exhausted the position-squaring adjustment amid speculation the US might enter more directly the hostilities with Iran and ahead of the outcome of the FOMC meeting. Follow-through buying has been limi…
Dollar Comes Back Softer ahead of FOMC Outcome Dollar Comes Back Softer ahead of FOMC Outcome Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 18, 2025 Rating: 5
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Dollar Becalmed, Gold Softer, Oil Firmer

June 17, 2025
Overview:  The latest phase of the Israel-Iran conflict continues and the impact on the markets remains minimal. Oil prices are elevated, but private insurance seems to be slowing traffic in the Straits of Hormuz more than the direct results of a blockade that Tehran appeared to have threatened. After rejecting the G7 draft statement that urged re…
Dollar Becalmed, Gold Softer, Oil Firmer Dollar Becalmed, Gold Softer, Oil Firmer Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 17, 2025 Rating: 5
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Investors Take Israel-Iran Conflict in Stride: Gold, Oil, and the Dollar are Softer Investors Take Israel-Iran Conflict in Stride: Gold, Oil, and the Dollar are Softer Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 16, 2025 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: Geopolitics, Tariffs, and Central Banks

June 14, 2025
The response of the US dollar and Treasuries to Israel's attack on Iran and the palatable risk of escalation was uninspiring. It supports the popular narrative about the changing role of the US dollar and assets in the world economy. US stocks and bond sold off ahead of the weekend. It should not be regarded as a "smoking gun" but pa…
Week Ahead: Geopolitics, Tariffs, and Central Banks Week Ahead: Geopolitics, Tariffs, and Central Banks Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 14, 2025 Rating: 5
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Israel's Strike Lifts Dollar but only Modestly, Gold and Oil Rally

June 13, 2025
Overview: Israel attacked Iranian nuclear enrichment site and apparently targeted scientists and top Revolutionary Guard leadership. Reports suggest that that no increase in radioactivity has been detected. The US quickly indicated that while it was informed of the attack, it did not authorize it. President Trump did warn of a possible strike, but…
Israel's Strike Lifts Dollar but only Modestly, Gold and Oil Rally Israel's Strike Lifts Dollar but only Modestly, Gold and Oil Rally Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 13, 2025 Rating: 5
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Can't See the Risk-Off by Looking at the Dollar or Gold

June 12, 2025
Overview: The combination of President Trump's renewed threat to send letters to announce the new bilateral tariff letters and the heightened tensions with Iran have spurred risk-off forces but they have not been expressed, as often is the case, with a stronger dollar and a surge in gold. The greenback is softer against nearly all the G10 curr…
Can't See the Risk-Off by Looking at the Dollar or Gold Can't See the Risk-Off by Looking at the Dollar or Gold Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 12, 2025 Rating: 5
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