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Surging Energy Prices Pushing Europe Closer to Recession

August 23, 2022
Overview:  The poor eurozone PMI underscores likely recession and weighs on the single currency, which was sold to a new 20-year low.  Rather than a "Turn Around Tuesday"  a broadly consolidative session is unfolding. Asian and European equities are weaker, while US futures are positive but little changed.  Benchmark 10-year bond yields …
Surging Energy Prices Pushing Europe Closer to Recession Surging Energy Prices Pushing Europe Closer to Recession Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 23, 2022 Rating: 5
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No Relief for the Euro or Sterling

August 22, 2022
Overview: The euro traded below parity for the second time this year and sterling extended last week’s 2.5% slide. While the dollar is higher against nearly all the emerging market currencies, it is more mixed against the majors. The European currencies have suffered the most, except the Norwegian krone. The dollar-bloc and yen are also slightly f…
No Relief for the Euro or Sterling No Relief for the Euro or Sterling Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 22, 2022 Rating: 5
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Flash PMI, Jackson Hole, and the Price Action

August 20, 2022
For many, this will be the last week of the summer. However, in an unusual twist of the calendar, the US August employment report will be released on September 2, the end of the following week, rather than after the US Labor Day holiday (September 5).  The main economic report of the week ahead will be the preliminary estimate of the August PMI. T…
Flash PMI, Jackson Hole, and the Price Action Flash PMI, Jackson Hole, and the Price Action Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 20, 2022 Rating: 5
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The Dollar is on Fire

August 19, 2022
Overview:  The dollar is on fire. It is rising against all the major currencies and cutting through key technical levels like a hot knife in butter. The Canadian dollar is the strongest of the majors this week, which often outperforms on the crosses in a strong US dollar environment. It is off 1.5% this week. The New Zealand dollar, where the RBNZ…
The Dollar is on Fire The Dollar is on Fire Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 19, 2022 Rating: 5
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Fed Minutes were Not as Dovish as Initially Read

August 18, 2022
Overview: The sell-off in European bonds continues today. The 10-year German Bund yield is around four basis points higher to bring the three-day increase to about 22 bp. The Italian premium over Germany has risen by almost 18 bp over these three sessions. Its two-year premium is widening for the fifth consecutive session and is above 90 bp for th…
Fed Minutes were Not as Dovish as Initially Read Fed Minutes were Not as Dovish as Initially Read Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 18, 2022 Rating: 5
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Markets Look for Direction

August 17, 2022
Overview: The biggest development today in the capital markets is the jump in benchmark interest rates.  The US 10-year yield is up five basis points to 2.86%, which is about 10 bp above Monday’s low.  European yields are up 9-10 bp.  The 10-year German Bund yield was near 0.88% on Monday and is now near 1.07%.  Italy’s premium over Germany is nea…
Markets Look for Direction Markets Look for Direction Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 17, 2022 Rating: 5
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Greenback Remains Firm

August 16, 2022
Overview: After retreating most of last week, the US dollar has extended yesterday’s gains today. The Canadian dollar is the most resilient, while the New Zealand dollar is leading the decline with a nearly 0.75% drop ahead of the central bank decision first thing tomorrow. The RBNZ is expected to deliver its fourth consecutive 50 bp hike. Most em…
Greenback Remains Firm Greenback Remains Firm Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 16, 2022 Rating: 5
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