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Mild Sanctions Spur Relief Rally

February 23, 2022
Overview: The market appears to be judging the initial salvo of sanctions against Russia for formally recognizing the separatist regions in Ukraine as modest at best and has preceded to take on more risk.  Tokyo markets were on holiday but the other major equity markets in the region rallied and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the first time …
Mild Sanctions Spur Relief Rally Mild Sanctions Spur Relief Rally Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 23, 2022 Rating: 5
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Dollar Shows Limited Safe Haven Appeal

February 22, 2022
Overview: Russia's formal recognition of the two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine kicked out the legs upon which hope of diplomatic solution stood.  Putin's decision to send in troops into the regions is seen the start of the war.  The US, UK, and EU are preparing sanctions.  As one might expect, global equities fell, and bond yields …
Dollar Shows Limited Safe Haven Appeal Dollar Shows Limited Safe Haven Appeal Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 22, 2022 Rating: 5
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Possible Biden-Putin Summit Resuscitates Animal Spirits

February 21, 2022
Overview: What would it look like if Russia was on the verge of attacking Ukraine?  Cyber-attacks.  Check.  Violation of the cease fire with the separatist regions.  Check.  Almost 2000 such violations were recorded on Saturday alone, according to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.  Extending the military exercises with Bela…
Possible Biden-Putin Summit Resuscitates Animal Spirits Possible Biden-Putin Summit Resuscitates Animal Spirits Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 21, 2022 Rating: 5
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Macro Themes and Price Action

February 19, 2022
(Due an extended business trip, this weekend’s commentary has been consolidated into one note)There are a few main themes in driving the foreign exchange market that may be useful noting as we begin the second half of Q1.  The two overarching considerations are steady US warnings of a pending Russian invasion of Ukraine and adjustment of interest …
Macro Themes and Price Action Macro Themes and Price Action Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 19, 2022 Rating: 5
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Long-Holiday Weekend in the US may Deter Strong Risk-Taking Today

February 18, 2022
Overview: News that Russia's Lavrov and America's Blinken will talk next week is seen as pushing potential invasion of Ukraine further out.  That sigh of relief is seeing a mild risk-on response in the capital markets.  It was not so clear in the Asian session where most bourses were lower, save China and South Korea. The Stoxx 600 has edg…
Long-Holiday Weekend in the US may Deter Strong Risk-Taking Today Long-Holiday Weekend in the US may Deter Strong Risk-Taking Today Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 18, 2022 Rating: 5
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US Sows Doubts over Eastern Europe De-Escalation

February 17, 2022
Overview: US intelligence claims that Russia is still mobilizing for an attack on Ukraine is sapping risk appetites and lifting gold to its highest level since last June around $1885-$1890.  Asia Pacific equities advanced, except in Japan.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is nursing a small loss, while US futures are off around 0.4%-0.6%.  The 10-year US T…
US Sows Doubts over Eastern Europe De-Escalation US Sows Doubts over Eastern Europe De-Escalation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 17, 2022 Rating: 5
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Hope for De-Escalation of Tensions Continues

February 16, 2022
Overview: Hope that the geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe are de-escalating is underpinning risk appetites.  The large bourses in the Asia Pacific region but China were all up more than 1% and Europe's Stoxx 600 gapped higher, but has come back to close the gap, with communications and financial sectors the largest drags.  US futures hav…
Hope for De-Escalation of Tensions Continues Hope for De-Escalation of Tensions Continues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 16, 2022 Rating: 5
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