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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

March 25, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) Reserve Bank of India will introduce a new monetary policy tool.Moody’s raised the outlook on Russia’s Ba1 rating from stable to positive.Fitch cut Saudi Arabia’s rating a notch to A+.Moody’s cut the outlook on Turkey’s Ba1 rating from stable to negative.China has temporarily suspended beef imports from Brazil.

In th…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 25, 2017 Rating: 5
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Dollar Trying to Stabilize Ahead of the Weekend

March 23, 2017
The US dollar has been stabilizing over the past couple of sessions. This broad stability of the dollar is impressive because of the questions of the prospects of US President Trump's economic agenda.  Expectations for tax reform and infrastructure spending have bolstered investor confidence and helped boost equity prices despite what appears …
Dollar Trying to Stabilize Ahead of the Weekend Dollar Trying to Stabilize Ahead of the Weekend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 23, 2017 Rating: 5
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Some Thoughts about the Recent Price Action

March 22, 2017
(greetings from Tokyo.  Speaking at the CFA Society of Japan tonight)

The gains the US dollar scored last month have been largely unwound against the major currencies.  The dollar's losses against the yen are a bit greater, and it returned to levels not seen late last November. 
The down draft in the dollar appears part of a larger development i…
Some Thoughts about the Recent Price Action Some Thoughts about the Recent Price Action Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 22, 2017 Rating: 5
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Euro Recovery Continues, Posts New Six Week High; Other Currencies Mixed

March 21, 2017
(greetings from Tokyo)
Growing confidence that Le Pen will not be the next president of France following the televised debate for which two polls showed Macron doing best has lifted the euro and reduced the French interest rate premium over Germany.   The euro pushed through $1.0800 after initially dipping below yesterday's lows. 
The outside da…
Euro Recovery Continues, Posts New Six Week High; Other Currencies Mixed Euro Recovery Continues, Posts New Six Week High; Other Currencies Mixed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 21, 2017 Rating: 5
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Divergence Theme Questioned

March 19, 2017
Recent developments have given rise to doubts over the divergence theme, which we suggested have shaped the investment climate.    There are some at the ECB who suggest rates can rise before the asset purchases end.   The Bank of England left rates on hold, but it was a hawkish hold, as there was a dissent in favor of an immediate rate hike, and t…
Divergence Theme Questioned Divergence Theme Questioned Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 19, 2017 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview:

March 19, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
EM FX had a stellar week, ending on a strong note in the aftermath of what the market perceived as a dovish Fed hike Wednesday.  Every EM currency except ARS was up on the week vs. USD, with the best performers ZAR, TRY, COP, and MXN. There are some risks ahead for EM this week, with many Fed speakers lined up and …
Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview: Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview: Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 19, 2017 Rating: 5
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Speculators Buy Euros and Pesos while Selling Yen, Sterling and Aussie

March 18, 2017
(I am beginning a three-week business trip to Asia, so, while committed to the blog, the updates will be irregular. Thanks for your patience.).


Speculators were busy in the futures market in the CFTC reporting period that covered the US jobs data and the run-up to the FOMC meeting.Of the 16 gross speculative positions we track, seven were adjusted …
Speculators Buy Euros and Pesos while Selling Yen, Sterling and Aussie Speculators Buy Euros and Pesos while Selling Yen, Sterling and Aussie Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 18, 2017 Rating: 5
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