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Bernanke Stole Yellen's Thunder, Condemns Fed to Weak Leadership

December 23, 2013
I had been one of those analysts that did not expect the Fed to announce tapering this month. There were two arguments that we had found compelling.  The first was inflation, as measured by the Fed's preferred metric, the core PCE deflator, was low and falling. The second was that the shift toward forward guidance would be more compelling if i…
Bernanke Stole Yellen's Thunder, Condemns Fed to Weak Leadership Bernanke Stole Yellen's Thunder, Condemns Fed to Weak Leadership Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 23, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: The Rise of China as a Trade Power

December 23, 2013
The return of China to the world stage is one of the most significant changes to the international political economy in the last forty years.  
This Great Graphic is from Amazing_Maps. It shows in red those countries for which China is the largest trading partner.   China is the second largest trading partner for the countries in orange. Countries…
Great Graphic: The Rise of China as a Trade Power Great Graphic: The Rise of China as a Trade Power Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 23, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview of Week Ahead

December 23, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
China money markets are likely to remain in focus this week, as year-end funding pressures persist. The 7-day repo rate started week near 8.5%, the highest since June (the June high was 11.2%). CNY300 bln was injected over the course of last week, even as the PBOC noted that excess reserves stand n…
Emerging Markets: Preview of Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview of Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 23, 2013 Rating: 5
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Year-End Investment Climate: Not at Peak Accommodation

December 22, 2013
The thinner market conditions that will prevail now until early next year should not obscure the general investment climate.  For the first time in four years, the investors are feeling better about the high income countries than the lower income countries.
There are exceptions, of course, as there is for nearly any generalization.  Among lower in…
Year-End Investment Climate: Not at Peak Accommodation Year-End Investment Climate: Not at Peak Accommodation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 22, 2013 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Ghosts of Evolution

December 21, 2013
This Cool Video looks at another aspect of evolution than what most of us are familiar with. The idea here is that some fruits and nuts apparently evolved with the help of animals that no longer exist. This video by PBS is on You Tube, but hat tip to Maria Popova for spotting it.





Cool Video: Ghosts of Evolution Cool Video: Ghosts of Evolution Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 21, 2013 Rating: 5
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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Thin Conditions Dominate

December 21, 2013
The lack of participation in the global capital markets, in general, and the foreign exchange market, in particular, can make for erratic price action punctuating an eerie calm.  Order flow and position adjustment (passive, as in triggering of stops, or more active ahead of year end) may exert greater influence than is often the case. 
Here is an…
Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Thin Conditions Dominate Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Thin Conditions Dominate Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 21, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: The Fed's Mandates: How Close?

December 20, 2013
The deviation of the economy from the Federal Reserve's targets is actually more pronounced now than a few months ago.  This Great Graphic comes from Benn Steil's Geo-Graphics blog.

Composed with Dinah Walker,  the chart illustrates that the core PCE deflator is moving away from the Fed's 2% target faster than the unemployment rate is f…
Great Graphic: The Fed's Mandates: How Close? Great Graphic: The Fed's Mandates: How Close? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 20, 2013 Rating: 5
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