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Nervous Calm Hangs over the Markets

June 25, 2024
Overview:  San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly spoke aloud what many are thinking. The US labor market may be at an inflection point. The four-week moving average of weekly jobless claims is at the highest since last September and the early call for July nonfarm payrolls is about 185k, which if true, would be a sub-200k reading for the se…
Nervous Calm Hangs over the Markets Nervous Calm Hangs over the Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 25, 2024 Rating: 5
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US Dollar Offered, but Intra-Day Momentum Indicators are Stretched

June 24, 2024
Overview: The Dollar Index reached its best level since May 1 before the weekend but has come back softer against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies. There is no apparent driver, and the intraday day momentum indicators caution against expecting much in the way of follow through gains in North America. The dollar edged clos…
US Dollar Offered, but Intra-Day Momentum Indicators are Stretched US Dollar Offered, but Intra-Day Momentum Indicators are Stretched Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 24, 2024 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: Politics, Economics, and the Yen

June 22, 2024
The relationship between interest rate expectations and the foreign exchange levels is more complicated than many textbooks or conventional wisdom allows. Australia's and Norway's central banks pushed against rate cuts this year, and their currencies were rewarded. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand said more or less the same thing, but inves…
Week Ahead: Politics, Economics, and the Yen Week Ahead: Politics, Economics, and the Yen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 22, 2024 Rating: 5
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Computer Glitch--Brief Commentary

June 21, 2024
Thanks for your patience. See you tomorrow. Japan:  USD reached nearly JPY159.15, highest since late April.  US Treasury added Japan to fx watchlist after recent intervention. USD up past six consecutive sessions coming into today. Japanese rhetoric about fx escalates.  National CPI headline and core ticked up primarily utilities (electricity and …
Computer Glitch--Brief Commentary Computer Glitch--Brief Commentary Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 21, 2024 Rating: 5
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SNB Surprises the Market (Again)

June 20, 2024
Overview: The US dollar is trading higher against all the G10 currencies today but the Norwegian krone. Norway's central bank left policy on hold and warned that if the economy performs as expected, it does not anticipate a rate cut until next year. On the other hand, the Swiss National Bank surprised many with its second consecutive rate cut.…
SNB Surprises the Market (Again) SNB Surprises the Market (Again) Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 20, 2024 Rating: 5
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Greenback Catches a Bid

June 18, 2024
Overview: The dollar has caught a bid ahead of the US retail sales and industrial production figures. It is higher against all the G10 currencies but the Swiss franc. The SNB meets Thursday. It surprised many by cutting rates in March and the same logic (low inflation, move ahead of the ECB, stronger franc) may apply now. A hawkish hold by the Res…
Greenback Catches a Bid Greenback Catches a Bid Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 18, 2024 Rating: 5
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Calmer Markets to Start the New Week

June 17, 2024
Overview: The US dollar is firmer against most G10 currencies to start the new week. The euro is a notable exception. It is only slightly higher but confined to a narrow range around $1.07. On the other hand, most emerging market currencies are firmer, but for a few Asia-Pacific currencies, including those of China, South Korea, and Taiwan. The Me…
Calmer Markets to Start the New Week Calmer Markets to Start the New Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 17, 2024 Rating: 5
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