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Dollar Approached the Precipice and Paused

August 05, 2017
The US dollar has fallen for four consecutive weeks against the euro, yen, and yuan.  Its technical condition is stretched, and sentiment seems universally negative.  However, the breadth of the dollar descent narrowed.  The greenback snapped a five-week slide against the Canadian dollar and a three-week slide against the Antipodean currencies.   …
Dollar Approached the Precipice and Paused Dollar Approached the Precipice and Paused Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 05, 2017 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

August 04, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
The Reserve Bank of India started an easing cycle by cutting all policy rates 25 bp.Bank Indonesia has tilted more dovish after signaling earlier this year that the easing cycle was over.Czech National Bank became the first in Europe to hike. Political risk is rising in IsraelPresident Trump signed the Russia sanct…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 04, 2017 Rating: 5
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Constructive US Jobs, but Where Do the Euro Bulls make a Stand?

August 04, 2017
The US created 209k jobs in July and jobs growth in June was revised higher (+9k) to 231k.  The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, matching the cyclical low set in May.  This is all the more impressive because the participation rate also ticked up (62.9% from 62.8%).  The underemployment rate was unchanged at 8.6%.  
Average hourly earnings ros…
Constructive US Jobs, but Where Do the Euro Bulls make a Stand? Constructive US Jobs, but Where Do the Euro Bulls make a Stand? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 04, 2017 Rating: 5
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Does the Employment Report Matter?

August 04, 2017
It is not that the update on the US labor market is unimportant, but the question for investors is its impact on the powerful trends in the market.  Given the current drivers, even a fairly strong jobs report is unlikely to change the direction change views on the US economy and the trajectory of monetary policy.   
The note of caution that has pep…
Does the Employment Report Matter? Does the Employment Report Matter? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 04, 2017 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Unemployment by Education Level

August 03, 2017
The US reports the monthly jobs data tomorrow.  The unemployment rate stood at 4.4% in June, after finishing last year at 4.7%.  At the end of 2015 was 5.0%.  Some economists expect the unemployment rate to have slipped to 4.3% in July. 
Recall that this measure (U-3) of unemployment counts those who do not have a job but are looking for one.  Ther…
Great Graphic: Unemployment by Education Level Great Graphic: Unemployment by Education Level Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 03, 2017 Rating: 5
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