Edit

Emerging Markets Preview

May 07, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)


EM FX got some limited traction as the week closed, helped by stabilizing commodity prices.  However, oil, copper, and iron ore have all broken important technical levels that suggest further weakness ahead.  We also think the FOMC and jobs data support our view that the next Fed hike will be in June.  This backdro…
Emerging Markets Preview Emerging Markets Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 07, 2017 Rating: 5
Edit

Dollar Drivers in the Week Ahead

May 07, 2017
Sometimes there seems to be a single factor of overwhelming influence in the capital market.We have maintained that to the extent one exists, it was divergence as the Federal Reserve is well ahead of the other major central banks in the beginning to normalize policy.   
The rise in US interest rates and the related increase in dollar's exchange…
Dollar Drivers in the Week Ahead Dollar Drivers in the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 07, 2017 Rating: 5
Edit

Euro Shorts Covered, Yen Longs Liquidated

May 06, 2017
It was feast or famine in the adjustment of speculative positions in the currency futures market during the CFTC reporting period ending May 2. Speculators either made large adjustments or very small adjustments, and little in between.  
Speculators covered 17.7k previously sold euro contracts to reduce the gross short position 161.1k contracts. It…
Euro Shorts Covered, Yen Longs Liquidated Euro Shorts Covered, Yen Longs Liquidated Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 06, 2017 Rating: 5
Edit

Correction of Yen Crosses Generates Conflicting Dollar Pressure

May 06, 2017
It is difficult to talk about a weak US dollar when in recent days it has made new six-week highs against the yen, 14-month highs against the Canadian dollar, four-month highs against the Australian dollar, and five-month highs against the New Zealand dollar.  It is at three-week highs against the Chinese yuan and near the upper end of its two-mon…
Correction of Yen Crosses Generates Conflicting Dollar Pressure Correction of Yen Crosses Generates Conflicting Dollar Pressure Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 06, 2017 Rating: 5
Edit

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

May 05, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

Relations between China and North Korea appear to be worsening. The THAAD missile shield has been deployed earlier than expected in South Korea.An amendment to India’s Banking Regulation Act gives the RBI more power to address bad loans.Tensions are rising between Czech Prime Minister Sobotka and Finance Minister B…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 05, 2017 Rating: 5
Edit

April Jobs Won't Change Minds

May 05, 2017
The US created 211k net new jobs in April, a sharp bounce back from the downwardly revised 79k gain in March.  It is the third month this year that the US created more than 200k new jobs. 
The unemployment rate slipped to a new cyclical low of 4.4% from 4.5%.  This seems largely a function of the decline in the participation rate.  It eased to 62.…
April Jobs Won't Change Minds April Jobs Won't Change Minds Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 05, 2017 Rating: 5
Edit

Mixed Dollar Ahead of US Jobs Data and Fed Talk

May 05, 2017
The US dollar is narrowing mixed as the employment data, and Fed speeches are awaited. Six Fed officials speak today, including Yellen and Fischer. Regional Presidents Williams, Rosengren Evans and Bullard also speak. It will be the first flurry of speeches since the FOMC meeting. 
The market's take away from the FOMC statement that was little …
Mixed Dollar Ahead of US Jobs Data and Fed Talk Mixed Dollar Ahead of US Jobs Data and Fed Talk Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 05, 2017 Rating: 5
Subscribe to: Posts ( Atom )
Powered by Blogger.