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Shift in Gross Speculative Positioning Reveals Changing Sentiment

April 08, 2017
The traditional focus of speculative activity in the futures market has been the net positioning between the outstanding open long  and short positions.  While acknowledging that the net position provides useful information, we find the changes in gross positions to be significant. The gross positions are what needs to be adjusted on a short move,…
Shift in Gross Speculative Positioning Reveals Changing Sentiment Shift in Gross Speculative Positioning Reveals Changing Sentiment Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 08, 2017 Rating: 5
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Dollar Recovery Can Continue, while the 10-year Yield is Set to Rise

April 08, 2017
The US dollar appreciated against most of the major currencies last week. The Japanese yen was the chief exception.  It rose about 0.5% as US yields remained heavy and equities were mostly softer.  
The Dollar Index did not fall in any session last week. It has had one losing session over the past nine, and that was the last day in March when the D…
Dollar Recovery Can Continue, while the 10-year Yield is Set to Rise Dollar Recovery Can Continue, while the 10-year Yield is Set to Rise Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 08, 2017 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

April 07, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

Reserve Bank of India surprised markets with the start of the tightening cycle.The Czech National Bank (CNB) ended the EUR/CZK floor.Israeli central bank said it won’t hike rates until Q2 2018.Both S&P and Fitch cut South Africa’s rating one notch to sub-investment grade BB+.Moody's put South Africa’s Baa2 …
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 07, 2017 Rating: 5
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US Jobs Growth Disappoints

April 07, 2017
The US jobs growth slowed considerably more than expected in March and the disappointment pushed the dollar and equities initially lower. 
The US created 98k jobs in March, well below market expectations for around 175k jobs. Adding insult to injury, revisions to the January and February data took off another 38k job.   Wage growth also failed to m…
US Jobs Growth Disappoints US Jobs Growth Disappoints Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 07, 2017 Rating: 5
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Short Note on US Employment Report

April 06, 2017
The US jobs data is notoriously difficult to accurately forecast consistently.  I do not claim to do so now.  My intent is more modest.  It is simply to point out why I think there is risk that the jobs data is disappointing, especially after the stronger than expected ADP estimate. 
The same forces that weighed on March auto sales may have slowed …
Short Note on US Employment Report Short Note on US Employment Report Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 06, 2017 Rating: 5
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Picking up the Czech

April 06, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
The Czech National Bank (CNB) ended the EUR/CZK floor today. Timing was a little earlier than expected, but rising inflation and a robust economy warranted it.  We think it’s too soon to talk about a rate hike, as we expect the koruna to overshoot to the strong side.  
POLICY OUTLOOK
Price pressures are rising, with …
Picking up the Czech Picking up the Czech Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 06, 2017 Rating: 5
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Impressive Japanese Flows at the end of the Fiscal Year

April 05, 2017
Japan's Ministry of Finance reports portfolio flows on a weekly basis with a week lag.  The data just reported covers the last week in March, as the Japanese  fiscal year was drawing to a close.

Japanese investors bought foreign bonds and stocks. The JPY1.1 trillion of  foreign bonds purchased snaps a eight-week selling spree. It is the larges…
Impressive Japanese Flows at the end of the Fiscal Year Impressive Japanese Flows at the end of the Fiscal Year Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 05, 2017 Rating: 5
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