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Great Graphic: WSJ survey of Fed Expectations

April 07, 2016
This Great Graphic shows the results of the last three Wall Street Journal survey of business and academic economists on the outlook for Fed policy. The key take away is that despite all the talk and ink spilled on the shifting Fed stance and the split within the FOMC, economists views did not change much over the past month.
In March, 76% of the e…
Great Graphic: WSJ survey of Fed Expectations Great Graphic: WSJ survey of Fed Expectations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 07, 2016 Rating: 5
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Time to Pick a Top in the Australian Dollar?

April 07, 2016
The yen's surge in recent days has captured the attention of investors and policymakers alike.    It is indeed unsettling and seems to run counter to the economic logic negative interest rates, which the BOJ surprised the market with at the end of January.

Yet, if one thinks the market has gotten ahead of itself, perhaps picking  a top in th…
Time to Pick a Top in the Australian Dollar? Time to Pick a Top in the Australian Dollar? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 07, 2016 Rating: 5
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Yen Continues to Climb

April 07, 2016
The main feature in the foreign exchange market continues to be the surge of the Japanese yen.  A convincing explanation of the yen's strength seems elusive.  Until last week, which means through the fiscal year-end last month, Japanese fund managers have been buying foreign bonds at a near-record pace.  Foreign investors, for their part, have…
Yen Continues to Climb Yen Continues to Climb Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 07, 2016 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Head and Shoulders in Dollar-Yen

April 06, 2016
The old head and shoulders pattern in the dollar against the yen is back in vogue.  We first pointed it out in the first week of January here.
Recall the details.  The neckline is drawn around JPY116.30 and measuring objective is near JPY107.00.   That target also corresponds to a 38.2% retracement of the big Abe-inspired dollar rally (~JPY106.80).…
Great Graphic: Head and Shoulders in Dollar-Yen Great Graphic: Head and Shoulders in Dollar-Yen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 06, 2016 Rating: 5
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Dutch Referendum: Devil is not in the Details

April 06, 2016
In what is possibly one of the under-appreciated political events of the year, the Netherlands holds a plebiscite today on an associational agreement with Ukraine that has already been approved by the Dutch parliament, the European Parliament and all other 27 EU members.
When stated so baldly, it is difficult to see what is at stake.Yet the consequ…
Dutch Referendum: Devil is not in the Details Dutch Referendum: Devil is not in the Details Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 06, 2016 Rating: 5
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Greenback Finds A Little Traction

April 06, 2016
The US dollar is better bid today but remains largely in the ranges seen in recent days. There a few developments to note, which together are lifting European equities after Asian equities softened.  
First, the API oil inventory estimate showed an unexpected fall of 4.3 mln barrels. An increase of half the magnitude was expected.  The DOE estimate…
Greenback Finds A Little Traction Greenback Finds A Little Traction Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 06, 2016 Rating: 5
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Talk of Secret Shanghai Agreement is a Distraction

April 05, 2016
(I have been sick with pneumonia but am just about back.  I expect to resume my commentary tomorrow.  Here is my overdue monthly column for a Chinese paper.   Thanks to everyone for their support.)

Conspiracy theories have run amok.After several years of claiming countries were engaged in currency wars, or attempts to drive their currencies down to…
Talk of Secret Shanghai Agreement is a Distraction Talk of Secret Shanghai Agreement is a Distraction Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 05, 2016 Rating: 5
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