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Dollar's Gains Pared to Start Week, but Yen Remains Soft

November 09, 2015
The sharp US dollar rally in response to the unequivocally strong jobs data left short-term technical indicators a bit over-extended and the consolidative tone now is not unexpected.  The dollar's pullback is minor, and it did manage to extend its gains against the yen.  It has pushed a little through the JPY123.50 high set on August 21 just b…
Dollar's Gains Pared to Start Week, but Yen Remains Soft Dollar's Gains Pared to Start Week, but Yen Remains Soft Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 09, 2015 Rating: 5
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Data to be Understood thru Divergence Lens

November 08, 2015
The combination of the unequivocally strong US jobs report and the contrasting unexpected decline in German factory orders and industrial production reported last week sets the broad investment framework for the period ahead.
The pendulum of market expectations has swung decidedly in favor of the long-awaited Fed hike next month. A Reuters poll fou…
Data to be Understood thru Divergence Lens Data to be Understood thru Divergence Lens Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 08, 2015 Rating: 5
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Observations on the Speculative Positioning in the Futures Market

November 07, 2015
1. There were three significant speculative gross position adjustment among the currency futures in the Commitment of Traders reporting week ending November 3.  They were all expanding the gross short positions. Speculators added 30.9k contracts to lift the gross short euro position to 207.2k.  It has risen by 69k contracts in the past two weeks. …
Observations on the Speculative Positioning in the Futures Market Observations on the Speculative Positioning in the Futures Market Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 07, 2015 Rating: 5
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Fundamental Divergence Spurs Dollar's Technical Strength

November 07, 2015
The US dollar and yields surged as the divergence meme, which had been increasingly doubted, returned with a vengeance. The 271k rise in nonfarm payrolls was most this year. The 2.5% year-over-year increase in average hourly earnings is the most in six years.  
Begrudgingly, the market has come around to recognize the possibility, neigh the likelih…
Fundamental Divergence Spurs Dollar's Technical Strength Fundamental Divergence Spurs Dollar's Technical Strength Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 07, 2015 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

November 06, 2015
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

1)        The AKP won a majority in the Turkish elections 2)        Colombia’s central bank unexpectedly hiked rates by 50 bps to 5.25% and added some new FX measures to its arsenal 3)        China will lift a freeze on IPOs by the end of the year 4)        Petrobras workers went on strike 5)        The…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 06, 2015 Rating: 5
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Strong Jobs Data Push Greenback Through Key Chart Points

November 06, 2015
The US jobs data was considerably stronger than expected and leave no doubt about the December meeting being live despite the year-end considerations that some had seen tying the Fed’s hands. The dollar broke through key chart points near JPY122 and $1.08 for the euro. 
Nonfarm payrolls leapt 271k, nearly 100k more than the consensus anticipated. …
Strong Jobs Data Push Greenback Through Key Chart Points Strong Jobs Data Push Greenback Through Key Chart Points Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 06, 2015 Rating: 5
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Rounding out the Week with US Jobs

November 05, 2015
The US dollar is going into the monthly jobs report bid.  It has risen against all the major currencies, save the Australian dollar that is up less than a tenth of one percent at pixel time.There are two main considerations. First, many speculators had given up on the strong dollar story.  This was evident in the positioning in the futures market,…
Rounding out the Week with US Jobs Rounding out the Week with US Jobs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 05, 2015 Rating: 5
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