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Emerging Markets: What Has Changed

October 02, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
1) USD/HKD traded at its highest level since May 2012. 2) Russian officials confirm that capital controls are not on the cards. 3) The Turkish central bank started to push bank against currency weakness – albeit slightly. 4) Dilma’s chances of re-elections increased further. 5) Argentine central ban…
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed Emerging Markets: What Has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Sterling--Its All about the Base, No Trouble

October 02, 2014
Megan Trainor's song All about that Bass, could be the theme song for sterling traders. Shifting views on the outlook for the Bank of England's base rate does a good job explain the vagaries of sterling in recent months.  
This Great Graphic, from Bloomberg, how well sterling (white line) has tracked the implied yield of the March 2015 shor…
Great Graphic: Sterling--Its All about the Base, No Trouble Great Graphic: Sterling--Its All about the Base, No Trouble Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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No Shock and Awe from Draghi

October 02, 2014
This seems to be the among the first time in several months that ECB President Draghi has been rather anti-climactic.   The disappointment or the "sell the rumor buy the fact" scenario we suggested is, in fact, unfolding, and the euro is correcting higher.  
Without indicating a size of the program, Draghi did provide more details.  The c…
No Shock and Awe from Draghi No Shock and Awe from Draghi Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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More than the ECB

October 02, 2014
The ECB meeting and details about the asset purchase plan is the key event of the day.  However, there is something else happening.  A string of disappointing US data and the sell-off in equities have sparked a bond market rally that again has caught many participants wrong-footed.  
The US 10-year yield had reached 2.62% on September 19. It fell b…
More than the ECB More than the ECB Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Developed and Emerging Market Equities

October 01, 2014
This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows the performance of the MSCI World Index (white line), which, despite its name, does not include emerging markets.  It also shows the MSCI Emerging Market Index (yellow line).  

In Q1, emerging market equities underperformed.  They caught up in late Q1 and into Q2.   The emerging index outperformed th…
Great Graphic: Developed and Emerging Market Equities Great Graphic: Developed and Emerging Market Equities Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 01, 2014 Rating: 5
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What is the ECB to Do?

October 01, 2014
The European Central Bank meets tomorrow.   The focus is on the details of the asset-backed securities and covered bond plan that was announced last month. 
There are three key issues related to this new initiative:  What instruments will be purchased,  how much will be bought, and how long will the purchase program last?
The ECB will buy the safe…
What is the ECB to Do? What is the ECB to Do? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 01, 2014 Rating: 5
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Poor News There Pushes Dollar Higher Here

October 01, 2014
It is not the US economic entrails have necessarily made for enjoyable reading of late.  As seems to be often the case, economists revised higher their economic forecasts after being consistently surprised by the actual reports, just in time for the economy lose some momentum.  
This was the case with yesterday's news on house prices and the Ch…
Poor News There Pushes Dollar Higher Here Poor News There Pushes Dollar Higher Here Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 01, 2014 Rating: 5
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