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ECB and Beyond

April 03, 2014
The ECB meeting looms large. The newswire surveys are nearly unanimous. The ECB is not going to take fresh action to address one of a number of issues, including low and falling inflation, anemic money supply growth, contracting lending, and an elevated EONIA.
It is the deflation threat that has been the focus of most market observers. Inflation…
ECB and Beyond ECB and Beyond Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Changes in UK employment since 2007

April 03, 2014
This Great Graphic from the UK's Office for National Statistics was tweeted by Duncan Weldon.   It shows the changes in the UK employment by age cohort since 2007. 

It shows clearly that improvement in the labor market has benefited 25-34 year olds and those above 50.  Those who have not benefited include young people (under 25 years) and for …
Great Graphic: Changes in UK employment since 2007 Great Graphic: Changes in UK employment since 2007 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Estimating Wage Growth

April 02, 2014
This Great Graphic was tweeted by the Financial Times' Cardiff Garcia, which he got from Goldman Sachs.  It tries to assess the outlook for wage growth based on different measures of unemployment, including short-term unemployment rate. 
The problem is that wages do not seem to be tied to the measures of the unemployment rates.  This is to say…
Great Graphic: Estimating Wage Growth Great Graphic: Estimating Wage Growth Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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A New Daisy Chain? US, Europe, China

April 02, 2014
In many discussions about capital flows, mutual fund and ETF activity are emphasized.   Sometimes the speculative positioning in the futures markets is discussed. Occasionally, Japan's weekly portfolio flow data is incorporated into analyses. 
There are of course other flows, many of which are harder to track.  They are we want to discuss here.…
A New Daisy Chain? US, Europe, China A New Daisy Chain? US, Europe, China Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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Calm before the Storm?

April 02, 2014
The US dollar is narrowly mixed, largely within its well-worn trading ranges against the major currencies with two exceptions. First, the dollar is trading at its best level against the Japanese since last January. It seems that the combination of Japan’s retail sales tax hike, easing of tensions in both Turkey and Russia, and the firm US data …
Calm before the Storm? Calm before the Storm? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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France Seeks Forbearance

April 01, 2014
French President Hollande, fresh from a stunning defeat in local elections is signaling that he will seek the EC (and Germany's) forbearance to relax the fiscal rules yet again for the euro zone's second largest economy.

Yesterday INSEE reported that France's 2013 budget deficit was 4.3% of GDP.   This overshot even the revised targets…
France Seeks Forbearance France Seeks Forbearance Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 01, 2014 Rating: 5
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Mixed Data Leaves Dollar of Two Minds

April 01, 2014
The US dollar is mixed against the major currencies as Japan's Tankan and European PMIs leave participants waiting for stronger cues.  Against the euro, yen, sterling and Canadian dollar, the greenback has been confined to yesterday's ranges.   Many of the high beta emerging market currencies, like the Turkish lira and South African rand, …
Mixed Data Leaves Dollar of Two Minds Mixed Data Leaves Dollar of Two Minds Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 01, 2014 Rating: 5
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