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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Dollar Rides High

July 06, 2013
Fundamental and technical considerations are aligned in favor of the US dollar.  The latest string of economic data, including the June employment report, is strengthening the market's conviction that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering its long-term asset purchases later this year and raise the Fed funds target by the end of next year.  
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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Dollar Rides High Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Dollar Rides High Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 06, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What Has Changed

July 05, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr.Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
1. The military coup finally did happen in Egypt 2. Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff approval rating collapsed 3. Turkish CPI surprised on the upside – by a lot 4. The Indian cabinet agreed to a doubling of natural gas prices
The MSCI Emerging Market equity index fell about 2.5% over the past week.…
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed Emerging Markets: What Has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 05, 2013 Rating: 5
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Dollar Posts New Leg Up on Favorable Employment Report

July 05, 2013
US employment data came out on the strong side of expectations. The economy grew a net 195k June and the back to months saw a combined 70k upward revision. In addition, the increase in hourly earnings of 0.4% will underpin expectations for an increase in both income and consumption. It also creates the impression that the US economy finished Q…
Dollar Posts New Leg Up on Favorable Employment Report Dollar Posts New Leg Up on Favorable Employment Report Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 05, 2013 Rating: 5
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Draghi Breaks New Ground, Euro Breaks a Cent

July 04, 2013
The ECB took an unprecedented step today. Part of its mantra has been that it does not pre-commit. Today it did. It indicated interest rates will be the same or lower for an extended period of time. Draghi, when pressed, chose not to define extended period, except to note that it does not mean six or twelve months.
Sometimes ECB officials a…
Draghi Breaks New Ground, Euro Breaks a Cent Draghi Breaks New Ground, Euro Breaks a Cent Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 04, 2013 Rating: 5
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BOE Surprises in Word not Deed

July 04, 2013
Mark Carney's presence at the Bank of England was felt immediately.  Although the MPC did not change policy, it did issue a statement and that markets reacted to it by taking sterling sharply lower, against both the dollar and euro, and fueling a rally in the short-sterling futures strip.  
While warning of near-term upside risks to inflation…
BOE Surprises in Word not Deed BOE Surprises in Word not Deed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 04, 2013 Rating: 5
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Eight Observations

July 03, 2013
1. Today's US data, especially the service ISM and trade figures are consistent with further moderation of the US economy in Q2. The fall in the new order component (50.8 from 56.0) and the slump in export orders (47.5 from 50)suggests the absence of momentum at the start of Q3. The ADP estimate and the employment component of the ISM may bo…
Eight Observations Eight Observations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 03, 2013 Rating: 5
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Dollar Firm, but Yen and Sterling Shine

July 03, 2013
Problems in Portugal and Greece, coupled with disappointing service PMI, have kept the euro under pressure. It is recording its first complete session below $1.30 since late May. The yen and sterling are the best performers today.
Initially in Asia, the dollar's gains ere marginally extended a little above JPY100.80, but traded in narrow ran…
Dollar Firm, but Yen and Sterling Shine Dollar Firm, but Yen and Sterling Shine Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 03, 2013 Rating: 5
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