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Europe Center Stage

July 12, 2011
The European debt crisis and the policy paralysis continues to dominate the capital markets. The euro has been driven lower, breaking below the 200-day moving average in Europe for the first time since January 12th today, before recovering following respectable bill auctions in Italy and Greece and talk that the ECB broke a couple month hiatus and…
Europe Center Stage Europe Center Stage Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 12, 2011 Rating: 5
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Europe: Contagion and Containment

July 11, 2011
Tolstoy tells us in the first line of Anna Karenina that "Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way." This is directly applicable to Europe. It is easy to tar all (growing) peripheral countries with the same brush, but that risks over simplification and the faulty analysis may generate poor investment d…
Europe: Contagion and Containment Europe: Contagion and Containment Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 11, 2011 Rating: 5
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New Week, One Issue Dominates: European Debt

July 11, 2011
There is one main force in the capital markets today and it is European debt crisis.  The crisis is becoming deeper and broader.  Deeper in the sense that the Greek 2.0 is looking more difficult and some reports suggest that if the rating agencies will declare nearly any "voluntary" private sector participation as a "stressed exchan…
New Week, One Issue Dominates: European Debt New Week, One Issue Dominates: European Debt Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 11, 2011 Rating: 5
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Key Take Away from This Week

July 08, 2011
The key take away from this week is not the weakest US jobs data in nine months. After all, it was well appreciated that for a number of reasons the US economy has lost some momentum in H1. Even the Federal Reserve has acknowledged this. Nor is the take away from the week that European officials have yet to design a way to get the private sector t…
Key Take Away from This Week Key Take Away from This Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 08, 2011 Rating: 5
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Euro Pares Gains Ahead of US Employment Data

July 08, 2011
The US dollar is generally little changed against most of the major currencies, with the notable exception of the euro and Swiss franc, against which the greenback is recouping some of yesterday's losses. 
The word cues in Trichet provided yesterday is suggestive of another rate hike in Q4.  The issue is whether Trichet delivers it at his last…
Euro Pares Gains Ahead of US Employment Data Euro Pares Gains Ahead of US Employment Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 08, 2011 Rating: 5
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Homeland Investment Charade

July 07, 2011
Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress are having a difficult time agreeing on changing a law that will allow the federal government to pay for what it has already spent. However, there does seem to be bipartisan support for giving American companies a tax holiday to repatriate funds that have been kept abroad. The discussion has been taking…
Homeland Investment Charade Homeland Investment Charade Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 07, 2011 Rating: 5
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Conceptualizing Forces Driving the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate

July 07, 2011
We identify two main forces that have driven the euro-dollar exchange rate in recent months. The first is the divergent monetary policy trajectories, with the Federal Reserve easing policy through the end of June, while the ECB today delivered its second rate hike in the cycle that began in Q2. We expect the ECB to hike rates at least a couple of …
Conceptualizing Forces Driving the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Conceptualizing Forces Driving the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 07, 2011 Rating: 5
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