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The Four Percent Solution

February 12, 2009
There are many observers claiming to know the solution to the financial and economic crisis that befuddles even the best and brightest. It is pretty straight forward, they say, until the politicos muck things up. The solution will be painful and in modern democracies, politicians tend to sugar-coat the issues for fear of joining the unemployment q…
The Four Percent Solution The Four Percent Solution Reviewed by magonomics on February 12, 2009 Rating: 5
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U.S. Shock and Awe ... Or Not

February 10, 2009
Obama's presidential campaign was regarded as near flawless, but over the last few weeks, it has been underwhelming, and today's delayed Treasury presentation is more of the same. The details were largely leaked which essentially sacrifices any element of surprise. There seems to be little that is bold or new that will break the negative p…
U.S. Shock and Awe ... Or Not U.S. Shock and Awe ... Or Not Reviewed by magonomics on February 10, 2009 Rating: 5
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Two Overlooked But Revealing Developments

February 06, 2009
There were a couple of important developments that seemed to have been over-looked or under-appreciated in recent days, and I am not talking about the groundhog Punxsutawney Phil not seeing his shadow, foretelling another six weeks of winter.
Two Overlooked But Revealing Developments Two Overlooked But Revealing Developments Reviewed by magonomics on February 06, 2009 Rating: 5
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Monitoring the Crisis

January 29, 2009
Investors and policy makers are looking at new ways to monitor the financial crisis. After Lehman failed last September, there were clear metrics. For example, the spread between LIBO and the Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) and the spread between T-bills and LIBOR (TED spread) were widely used. While these metrics, popular thermometers for gauging the…
Monitoring the Crisis Monitoring the Crisis Reviewed by magonomics on January 29, 2009 Rating: 5
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Thoughts on the FOMC: Ten Points

January 26, 2009
I. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee holds a two-day meeting this week, with the outcome anticipated near 2:15 pm on Wednesday, January 28. There is little doubt that the Fed funds target of 0-25 bp will be retained. The accompanying statement will receive the market’s full attention.
II. The data since the mid-Dec FOMC meeting has been dre…
Thoughts on the FOMC: Ten Points Thoughts on the FOMC: Ten Points Reviewed by magonomics on January 26, 2009 Rating: 5
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A Crisis with Chinese Characteristics

January 23, 2009
There is no doubt that the advanced industrialized countries are deep in an economic downturn. Given that consensus expectations continue to overshoot the actual data, it appears that many still do not fully appreciate the magnitude. The fact that policy makers continue to cut growth forecasts implies they too have not appreciated the depth of the…
A Crisis with Chinese Characteristics A Crisis with Chinese Characteristics Reviewed by magonomics on January 23, 2009 Rating: 5
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The Future of the Strong Dollar Policy

January 16, 2009
Shortly after Barrack Obama is sworn in next week as the 44th President of the United States, the strong dollar policy turns 14 years old. It may not be much of an exaggeration to suggest as goes Obama’s dollar policy so goes his Administration.
This is not to endorse overly simplistic notions that the dollar is like stock in America. There are a m…
The Future of the Strong Dollar Policy The Future of the Strong Dollar Policy Reviewed by magonomics on January 16, 2009 Rating: 5
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