Results for real rates
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USD Pushes above JPY160

June 26, 2024
Overview: The dollar is firm, and the market is challenging the JPY160 level, which it has traded above in Europe. Japanese officials say that they do not defend a specific level. The market is nervous though and some participants have professed intentions to sell dollars above there. The Australian dollar is the main exception to the greenback…
USD Pushes above JPY160 USD Pushes above JPY160 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 26, 2024 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Fed Raising Rates, but Yields Still Negative

July 17, 2018
The yield on the 3-month US Treasury bill is pushing above 2% today for the first time since 2008. The yield had briefly dipped below zero as recently as late 2015. 
Although today's yield seems high, this Great Graphic shows the nominal generic three-month yield going back to 1990.  Then the three-month bill yielded 8%.  The peak in the last c…
Great Graphic: Fed Raising Rates, but Yields Still Negative Great Graphic: Fed Raising Rates, but Yields Still Negative Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 17, 2018 Rating: 5
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Widening Inflation Differential Between US-EMU

May 14, 2018
The euro is beginning this week with a four-week slide in tow. It has depreciated in eight of the past ten weeks.  It fell in only three months in 2017 and has already fallen two this year. Nearly halfway through May, the euro is off almost a cent.  
Widening interest rate differentials have some explanatory power.  When interest rate differentials…
Widening Inflation Differential Between US-EMU Widening Inflation Differential Between US-EMU Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 14, 2018 Rating: 5
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US Rates: Real or Expectations?

February 12, 2018
There is a general understanding of what happened last week.  The 2.9% rise in average hourly earnings in the US reported, the fastest since 2009 spurred fears of rising inflation.  The jump in US interest rates triggered equity sales and a spike in volatility, which in turn spurred the unwinding of low vol bets that had been paying off handsomely…
US Rates: Real or Expectations? US Rates: Real or Expectations? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 12, 2018 Rating: 5
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The Dollar: Real or Nominal Rates?

February 06, 2017
Real interest rates are nominal rates adjusted for inflation expectations.Inflation expectations are tricky to measure.  The Federal Reserve identifies two broad metrics. There are surveys, like the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey, and the Fed conducts a  regular survey of professional forecasters.  There are also market-ba…
The Dollar: Real or Nominal Rates? The Dollar: Real or Nominal Rates? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 06, 2017 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Real Rates in US are Elevated Great Graphic: Real Rates in US are Elevated Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 10, 2017 Rating: 5
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