Results for Euro Debt Crisis
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2014 Outlook: Annus Not-So-Horribilis

December 24, 2013
Overview

US: The broad characteristics of the investment climate are unlikely to change very much in the first part of next year.The largest policy change is the  beginning of the long awaited slowing of the Federal Reserve’s long-term asset purchases.The process will likely be gradual and may take the better part of 2014 to come to a complete stop…
2014 Outlook: Annus Not-So-Horribilis 2014 Outlook: Annus Not-So-Horribilis Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 24, 2013 Rating: 5
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Dollar, Yen Firmer, Overall, Several Developments, Little Movement

December 11, 2013
The US dollar and yen are generally firm in what appears to be mostly a light bout of position squaring after a loss of downside momentum.   This is true across the board, major and emerging market currencies. 
It may be tempting to attribute the firmer dollar tone to heightened chances of tapering given the signs of a budget agreement.  However, …
Dollar, Yen Firmer, Overall, Several Developments, Little Movement Dollar, Yen Firmer, Overall, Several Developments, Little Movement Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 11, 2013 Rating: 5
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Dollar Marks Time Ahead of Employment Data

December 06, 2013
The US dollar is trading broadly sideways ahead of the November employment report.  Although many observers seem to disagree, we think the bar to Fed tapering later this month is high and the one month's jobs report, almost regardless of how strong, is insufficient.  
It is not just the growth side of the equation, as the October core PCE defla…
Dollar Marks Time Ahead of Employment Data Dollar Marks Time Ahead of Employment Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 06, 2013 Rating: 5
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Europe Moves Toward Compromise

December 03, 2013
The European Union is gradually moving to a compromise on the Single Resolution Mechanism.  It is intended to be agreed up before the end of the year to give the European Parliament time to debate and eventually accept it prior to the run-up to the May elections. 
The key issues revolve around the role of the European Commission and the national g…
Europe Moves Toward Compromise Europe Moves Toward Compromise Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 03, 2013 Rating: 5
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Italy and Spain Move to Help Banks

December 02, 2013
European banks continue to be engaged in deleveraging.  It is partly driven by new capital requirements and partly by preparing for the next year's ECB's asset quality review and stress test.  The deleveraging process includes reducing assets and boosting regulatory capital.  Italian and Spanish officials are finding creative ways to help …
Italy and Spain Move to Help Banks Italy and Spain Move to Help Banks Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 02, 2013 Rating: 5
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Japan and UK in Focus

November 13, 2013
The foreign exchange market has turned quiet, but there are two developments to note.  First, Japanese traders, like their North American counterparts were reluctant to take the US dollar above the downtrend line drawn off the July and September highs.  It comes in just below the JPY100 level.  The greenback has been confined to a tight 25 tick r…
Japan and UK in Focus Japan and UK in Focus Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 13, 2013 Rating: 5
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Dollar Recovers

October 09, 2013
The US dollar is well bid.  There are two overall drivers.  First, it has been indicated that President Obama will nominate Janet Yellen to lead the Federal Reserve.  This helped lift some uncertainty in the market, though generally speaking, it was well discussed and anticipated by investors, especially since Summer recused himself.  Second, an e…
Dollar Recovers Dollar Recovers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 09, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: A Look at LTROs

October 08, 2013
This Great Graphic was posted by Frederik Ducrozet on twitter.  It shows that three countries account for vast majority of the remaining LTRO borrowings:  Italy, Span and France.  Portuguese and Irish banks have some exposure as well. 
This is important and underscores where bank weakness is still pronounced.  Reports suggesting that the EBA will …
Great Graphic: A Look at LTROs Great Graphic: A Look at LTROs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 08, 2013 Rating: 5
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Fed Disappoints, but Global Investors Happy

September 19, 2013
The Fed clearly disappointed expectations with its decision not to slow its asset purchases, but the Financial Times may go a bit too far with its headline suggestion that the Fed blinked.   The Fed did no such thing.  It had never pre-committed to a September tapering.  And surveys suggested around a third did not in fact expect the Fed to taper …
Fed Disappoints, but Global Investors Happy Fed Disappoints, but Global Investors Happy Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 19, 2013 Rating: 5
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Euro Area Finance Ministers Meet Tomorrow: No Exit

September 12, 2013
The euro area finance ministers meet tomorrow.  Their discussion will be in sharp contrast to next week's FOMC meeting.   The FOMC will ostensibly be talking about beginning to exit from the QE by slowing down the pace of its asset purchases.  Surveys suggest a majority expect the Fed to announce the a tapering of its asset purchases. 
Althou…
Euro Area Finance Ministers Meet Tomorrow: No Exit Euro Area Finance Ministers Meet Tomorrow: No Exit Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 12, 2013 Rating: 5
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