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Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum

April 06, 2026
The US deadline on Tehran for re-opening the Strait of Hormuz has subtly shifted until tomorrow. The holiday-thinned market initially bought dollars and oil and took risk off in response to the continued attacks and the escalation of US rhetoric. However, negotiations, apparently led by Pakistan, Egypt, and Türkiye for a 45-day cease fire, have ca…
Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 06, 2026 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: It's Still Mostly about the War

April 04, 2026
The Middle East war remains the dominant fundamental condition. There continues to be some indication that market participants are hopeful of a resolution soon. The May WTI contract settled near $111.55 last week, which appears to build in the risk of near-term escalation, but the June contract settled close to $98. The September contract is below…
Week Ahead: It's Still Mostly about the War Week Ahead: It's Still Mostly about the War Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 04, 2026 Rating: 5
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Risk of Escalation Discourages Risk Taking while US Jobs Report May Extend the Dollar's Narrow Ranges Risk of Escalation Discourages Risk Taking while US Jobs Report May Extend the Dollar's Narrow Ranges Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 03, 2026 Rating: 5
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Hope Dashed, Risk Appetites Slashed Ahead of Long Holiday Weekend for Many

April 02, 2026
President Trump’s national address seemed to contain little more than a reading of some of his recent social media posts. The market was eager for some sign of confirmation of its hope that had buoyed the capital markets in the last couple of sessions. It found none. The threat of escalating attacks while reiterating that the US military operation…
Hope Dashed, Risk Appetites Slashed Ahead of Long Holiday Weekend for Many Hope Dashed, Risk Appetites Slashed Ahead of Long Holiday Weekend for Many Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 02, 2026 Rating: 5
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Hope Boosts Risk Appetites and Drags the Greenback Lower

April 01, 2026
Hope springs eternal, and the capital markets are trading on hope that the Middle East war ends shortly, even as missiles continue to be fired in the region. President Trump again hinted that the war may be winding down shortly. He will address the nation at 9:00 pm ET today. At a news conference today, UK Prime Minister Starmer announced plans fo…
Hope Boosts Risk Appetites and Drags the Greenback Lower Hope Boosts Risk Appetites and Drags the Greenback Lower Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 01, 2026 Rating: 5
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Mixed War News Keeps Oil Firm and the Greenback Consolidating

March 31, 2026
War developments pulled in both directions, leaving investors on edge On the one hand, Iran struck an oil tanker, carrying Kuwait oil, in port in Dubai. On the other hand, reports suggest President Trump told aides he is willing to wind down hostilities and pressure Iran diplomatically to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. May WTI has held about $100 t…
Mixed War News Keeps Oil Firm and the Greenback Consolidating Mixed War News Keeps Oil Firm and the Greenback Consolidating Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 31, 2026 Rating: 5
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US Dollar's Advance Continues but Verbal Threats Lift the Yen

March 30, 2026
The Middle East war rages on. The Houthis have entered the fray and there is risk that it shuts the Bab El-Mandeb Strait. Aluminum and steel facilities have been reportedly attacked. The US continues to amass forces, including troops, ostensibly for a potential landing operation. There seem to be two “logics” playing out. One is that the US is kee…
US Dollar's Advance Continues but Verbal Threats Lift the Yen US Dollar's Advance Continues but Verbal Threats Lift the Yen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 30, 2026 Rating: 5
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April 2026 Monthly

March 28, 2026
Wars rarely stay where they start. The Israeli and American military campaign against Iran—the most direct confrontation with Tehran in decades—has sent shockwaves well beyond the Middle East. The fog of war obscures the tactical picture almost daily, but the economic transmission mechanisms are clear enough, and investors who mistake this for a r…
April 2026 Monthly April 2026 Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 28, 2026 Rating: 5
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