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Did the Fed Really Deliver a Hawkish Hold? The FX Market Seems to Think So

July 31, 2025
No commentary on Friday but August monthly drops Saturday.  Daily commentary to resume Wednesday, August 6. Overview: The dollar jumped yesterday on the back of rising rates as if despite the two dovish dissents by governors, yesterday's FOMC meeting was a hawkish hold. It seemed to us that Fed Chair Powell referred to downside risks more than…
Did the Fed Really Deliver a Hawkish Hold? The FX Market Seems to Think So Did the Fed Really Deliver a Hawkish Hold? The FX Market Seems to Think So Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2025 Rating: 5
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Narrow Dollar Ranges are Unlikely to be Sustained through the Packed North American Session Narrow Dollar Ranges are Unlikely to be Sustained through the Packed North American Session Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2025 Rating: 5
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Dollar Short-Squeeze Extended before Stalling ahead of Tomorrow's Key Events Dollar Short-Squeeze Extended before Stalling ahead of Tomorrow's Key Events Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 29, 2025 Rating: 5
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Trade Deal Weighs on the Euro

July 28, 2025
Overview: The US and EU struck a trade deal that is less onerous than threatened and reduces the uncertainty plaguing businesses and investors. In May, President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on most EU goods, and yesterday, agreed to 15% (including autos and pharma, but not metals). There seems to be some debate over whether quota and tariff syst…
Trade Deal Weighs on the Euro Trade Deal Weighs on the Euro Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 28, 2025 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: Supportive Dollar Technicals vs Possible Dovish Hold by FOMC and Slower Jobs Growth Week Ahead: Supportive Dollar Technicals vs Possible Dovish Hold by FOMC and Slower Jobs Growth Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 26, 2025 Rating: 5
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The Dollar Recovers Ahead of the Weekend

July 25, 2025
Overview: The greenback is firm as the week winds down. Next week could be one of the most eventful of the year, with FOMC meeting, US and eurozone Q2 GDP, US PCE deflator and jobs data, and the August 1 "reciprocal tariff" extension deadline. The recovery in US rates has seen the dollar rise toward JPY148 from below JPY146 yesterday des…
The Dollar Recovers Ahead of the Weekend The Dollar Recovers Ahead of the Weekend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 25, 2025 Rating: 5
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Chinese Yuan and Australian Dollar Reach New 2025 Highs

July 24, 2025
Overview: With a US-Japanese deal in hand, and the prospects of an extended tariff truce between the US and China, many perceive some tail risks associated with the US foreign economic policy have diminished. This has encouraged the animal spirits and helped drive equity prices higher. The dollar is mixed. The uptick in Australia's PMI and cau…
Chinese Yuan and Australian Dollar Reach New 2025 Highs Chinese Yuan and Australian Dollar Reach New 2025 Highs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 24, 2025 Rating: 5
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