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Cheat Sheet

October 31, 2018
High-level distillation of the drivers of selected currencies.
US Dollar Jobs data ahead of the weekend should recover after a storm depressed the September jobs growth.  The base effect will allow earnings to show a strong year-over-year gain.  The FOMC meets next week.  A 25 bp rate hike in December remains the most likely scenario despite the hei…
Cheat Sheet Cheat Sheet Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 31, 2018 Rating: 5
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No Fright on This Halloween

October 31, 2018
Overview: After sliding hard this month, equities continue to stabilize into month-end.  All of the equity markets in Asia-Pacific rallied with the help of a solid close in the US.  European bourses are higher too as the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 tries to extend the recovery for a third consecutive session, led by energy, materials, and information tech…
No Fright on This Halloween No Fright on This Halloween Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 31, 2018 Rating: 5
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US-China: A Different Take

October 30, 2018
A basic building block of matter, electrons, are so complicated that it is recognized that by deciding to measure the speed, one cannot determine location, and if one tries to measure location, speed is indeterminant.  The principle was applied to Europe during the crisis.  If investors acting as if the eurozone was going to break, it would.  Per…
US-China: A Different Take US-China: A Different Take Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 30, 2018 Rating: 5
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Another Attempt to Put a Bottom in Stocks

October 30, 2018
Overview: First, reports suggested that if China refused to make any trade concessions, the Trump-Xi meeting on the sidelines of the G20 meeting next month would not take the issue up.  Fair enough.  Then, new reports indicated that the White was prepared to take additional trade measures if there was no agreement between Trump and Xi.  The news h…
Another Attempt to Put a Bottom in Stocks Another Attempt to Put a Bottom in Stocks Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 30, 2018 Rating: 5
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Market Awaits US Leadership

October 29, 2018
Overview:  The capital markets appear to be waiting for US leadership for direction.  The dollar is mostly slightly firmer against the major currencies, though the dollar bloc is firm.  Among emerging market currencies mixed, though the high beta Turkish lira and South African rand are posting modest gains.  The weakest is the Mexican peso.  It is…
Market Awaits US Leadership Market Awaits US Leadership Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 29, 2018 Rating: 5
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Thumbnail Sketch of Six Things to Monitor This Week

October 28, 2018
1. Equities 2. BOE and BOJ 3. EMU GDP 4. US data 5. China PMI 6. European politics
Equities 
Global equities have sold off hard.  The magnitude of the recent loss is similar to what happened earlier this year.  The MSCI World Index of developed countries fell 10.5% in January-February carnage and are now off about 11% this month.  The MSCI Emergin…
Thumbnail Sketch of Six Things to Monitor This Week Thumbnail Sketch of Six Things to Monitor This Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 28, 2018 Rating: 5
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Has a USD Correction Begun?

October 27, 2018
The MSCI benchmark for developed and emerging market equities has fallen for the past five weeks.  The dollar has done well over this period.  Although it lost some momentum ahead of the weekend, the Dollar Index reached a two-month high at the end week, reflecting the two-month lows of the euro and sterling. The Australian dollar recorded news l…
Has a USD Correction Begun? Has a USD Correction Begun? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 27, 2018 Rating: 5
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It is Tough for Investors When the Weekend is the Firebreak

October 26, 2018
Overview: Yesterday'sbounce in US equities may have been another bear trap as several tech favorites reported disappointing earnings after the close  Asian shares fell with Hong Kong, Korea, and Singapore markets losing more than 1% today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is lower for the fifth week, during which time it has lost around 12%.  The …
It is Tough for Investors When the Weekend is the Firebreak It is Tough for Investors When the Weekend is the Firebreak Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 26, 2018 Rating: 5
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Draghi Sticks to Guns, Disappointing the Doves

October 25, 2018
ECB President rebuffed calls for a reconsideration of policy in light of the disappointing string of economic data.  Bunds have sold off and the euro firmed in the initial reaction to Draghi's press conference. 
He acknowledged that the economic data have come in "somewhat weaker" than expected, but consistent with the ECB's outl…
Draghi Sticks to Guns, Disappointing the Doves Draghi Sticks to Guns, Disappointing the Doves Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 25, 2018 Rating: 5
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ECB Overshadowed by Equity Market Drama

October 25, 2018
Overview:  The dramatic sell-off in equities center stage after the S&P 500 lost 3% and the NASDAQ shed 4% yesterday.  Stocks in Asia-Pacific followed suit, with the Nikkei's 3.75% drop setting the pace.  Of note, the Shanghai Composite was essentially flat.  European bourses are struggling to hold on to some early gains, especially in Ger…
ECB Overshadowed by Equity Market Drama ECB Overshadowed by Equity Market Drama Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 25, 2018 Rating: 5
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Macro Cheat Sheet

October 24, 2018
A high-level distillation of the macro forces impacting various currencies.


US Dollar 
Equity market volatility has not reached levels that will spur the Fed's concern.  No one expected a hike at next month's meeting.  The December meeting is too far way for short-term volatility to have any bearing.  The volatility in Jan-Feb did not deter …
Macro Cheat Sheet Macro Cheat Sheet Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 24, 2018 Rating: 5
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