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Dollar Positive Investment Themes Set to Strengthen

November 30, 2014
Throughout the last few months, we have identified three forces that are shaping the investment climate:  the economic and monetary divergence that favors the US, the decline in commodity prices, and a slowing of China.These forces remain very much intact, and if anything, have strengthened and reinforcing each other.
The unexpected upward revision…
Dollar Positive Investment Themes Set to Strengthen Dollar Positive Investment Themes Set to Strengthen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 30, 2014 Rating: 5
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Dollar Consolidation Coming to an End, Poised for New Leg Up

November 29, 2014
The US dollar has been consolidating for the past couple of weeks, and that phase appears to be coming to an end. Next week's economic data and events will likely underscore the divergent theme, which works in the dollar's favor.  
We do not expect the ECB to announce a sovereign bond purchase program at next week's meeting, the last of…
Dollar Consolidation Coming to an End, Poised for New Leg Up Dollar Consolidation Coming to an End, Poised for New Leg Up Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 29, 2014 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Must See Hollie McNish on Immigration

November 29, 2014
Immigration is a hot issue throughout the high income countries.  In the US, President Obama has evoked executive action to implement reform of the US immigration system.  In the UK, Prime Minister Cameron outlined ways he wants to fill the gap now that the European Court of Justice has ruled that countries are not obligated to give welfare benefi…
Cool Video: Must See Hollie McNish on Immigration Cool Video: Must See Hollie McNish on Immigration Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 29, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: China Market Cap Surpasses Japan

November 28, 2014
This Great Graphic, composed on Bloomberg, shows that China's market capitalization (white line) is greater than Japan's (yellow line). This is the consequence of two forces.  
First, the Chinese stock market has easily outperformed Japanese stocks this year, and by a wide margin. The Shanghai Composite is advanced 26.8% this year and the S…
Great Graphic: China Market Cap Surpasses Japan Great Graphic: China Market Cap Surpasses Japan Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 28, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed This Week

November 28, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

1) Oil prices have taken another sharp leg down 2) The People’s Bank of China surprised the markets with rate cuts last Friday 3) Malaysia cut fuel subsidies just days after Indonesia’s new President Joko Widodo took similar measures 4) Nigeria devalued the naira, moving the peg rate and widening the ba…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed This Week Emerging Markets: What has Changed This Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 28, 2014 Rating: 5
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Market Catches Breath after Yesterday's OPEC-Induced Moves

November 28, 2014
OPEC decision to roll-over existing quotas sent oil prices sharply lower, pushed European bonds and stocks higher, and generally gave the US dollar a boost.  Today's theme is more consolidative in nature.    At the same time, the dollar's firmer tone against the yen helped lift the Nikkei while European stocks and bonds are struggling to e…
Market Catches Breath after Yesterday's OPEC-Induced Moves Market Catches Breath after Yesterday's OPEC-Induced Moves Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 28, 2014 Rating: 5
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The Importance of Today's Events Going Forward

November 27, 2014
There were two developments today that are important for investors to know about before the markets open on Friday to close the month.
First, and most importantly, the results of the OPEC meeting are the most negative outcome for prices.  OPEC, which over-produced in October, decided to roll-over the existing quota 30 mln barrels a day.  We had no…
The Importance of Today's Events Going Forward The Importance of Today's Events Going Forward Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 27, 2014 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Minsky Moment Misses the Point

November 27, 2014
It has become common for journalists and analysts refer to the Minsky Moment.  Most recently, there have been numerous references to China having reached such a moment, which as far as I can tell, is used to mean some kind of peak in what the writer believes is an over-extended market.  In this Cool Video, a leading scholar of Minsky, L Randall Wr…
Cool Video: Minsky Moment Misses the Point Cool Video: Minsky Moment Misses the Point Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 27, 2014 Rating: 5
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OPEC's Prisoner's Dilemma

November 26, 2014
In the middle of November, the CEO of Vodafone Vittorio Colao warned of a "prisoner's dilemma" in the efforts to offer bundled television and broadband services. It makes sense for a company to seek unique content to differentiate it from others.  However, if all the providers try to secure exclusive content, it triggers an arms race…
OPEC's Prisoner's Dilemma OPEC's Prisoner's Dilemma Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 26, 2014 Rating: 5
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Dollar is Firm but Loses Momentum Against the Yen

November 26, 2014
The capital markets are mostly quiet, amid a light news stream, and ahead of three key events in the coming days, with US markets closed tomorrow and light participation expected on Friday. These events are tomorrow's OPEC meeting, the flash euro area inflation reading on Friday, and month-end portfolio and hedge adjustments.  
The odds of a su…
Dollar is Firm but Loses Momentum Against the Yen Dollar is Firm but Loses Momentum Against the Yen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 26, 2014 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: John Authers--What can Go Wrong ?

November 25, 2014
This Cool Video is a overview of the divergence theme.  John Authers of the Financial Times as put together about an 8.5 minute video that discusses the "bullish on America" sentiment that is a key driving forces in the capital markets.   He interviewed several economists/strategist and money managers, including myself.  The link her…
Cool Video: John Authers--What can Go Wrong ? Cool Video: John Authers--What can Go Wrong ? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 25, 2014 Rating: 5
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Will "Invest in Europe" be DOA ?

November 25, 2014
EC President Juncker is set to unveil a new investment program.  It sounds good:  a fiscal complement to the monetary policy stance of the ECB.    Expectations are running high that the ECB will move to more aggressively expand its balance sheet, record low bond yields in many euro area countries, and negative 2-year yields in at least five countr…
Will "Invest in Europe" be DOA ? Will "Invest in Europe" be DOA ? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 25, 2014 Rating: 5
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