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US Dollar Comes Back a Little Firmer

April 29, 2025
Overview: The US dollar has come back better bid today. It is firmer against all the G10 currencies. The proximate cause has been reports that as early as today, the 100th day of President Trump's second-term, he will announce another retreat pivot:  imported auto parts for vehicles made in the US may be waived or postponed and automakers will…
US Dollar Comes Back a Little Firmer US Dollar Comes Back a Little Firmer Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 29, 2025 Rating: 5
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Calm before the Storm?

April 28, 2025
Overview: The US dollar is trading quietly in a mixed fashion, mostly confined to the ranges seen at the end of last week. This could prove to be a pivotal week. The weakness in the US survey data may become evident in the real sector data, with a dismal Q1 GDP reading that may show the economy stalled before the tariff bite and job growth may hav…
Calm before the Storm? Calm before the Storm? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 28, 2025 Rating: 5
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May 2025 Monthly

April 26, 2025
The global economy has entered a phase of heightened uncertainty, and at the center of this instability stands the United States. In a reversal of its traditional role as a pillar of predictability and leadership, the U.S. has adopted an erratic posture—rife with sudden feints, policy reversals, and institutional strain. Nowhere is this more evide…
May 2025 Monthly May 2025 Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 26, 2025 Rating: 5
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Hulk Smash Dollar

April 21, 2025
(Business travel will interrupt the regular commentary this week. It will return on April 26 with the May monthly. We apologize for the disruption. Thank you for your patience. Good luck.) 
Overview: In thin markets, the dollar has been stomach-punched. It is off by more than 1% against six of the G10 currencies today. The Canadian dollar is the wo…
Hulk Smash Dollar Hulk Smash Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 21, 2025 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: Manic Activity Restrained, but Could Return

April 19, 2025
Last week, the capital markets were not as manic as the previous week but the uncertainty stemming from Washington remains intense. Outside of tariffs on Mexican tomatoes, the US tariffs were not extended but new investigations were opened that will likely lead to more tariffs down the road. President Trump hinted at the possibility of a postponem…
Week Ahead: Manic Activity Restrained, but Could Return Week Ahead: Manic Activity Restrained, but Could Return Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 19, 2025 Rating: 5
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Yuan and Why

April 18, 2025
With the U.S. imposing aggressive tariffs on Chinese goods, conventional wisdom suggests that Beijing will retaliate with a sharp devaluation of the yuan to counter the economic shock. But this assumption is flawed. The level of devaluation required to fully offset tariffs exceeding 100% would be extreme, risking financial instability and undermin…
Yuan and Why Yuan and Why Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 18, 2025 Rating: 5
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The ECB Wants to Make it a Good Thursday

April 17, 2025
Overview: The dollar is firm against most of the G10 currencies, but well within recent ranges. Liquidity is likely to dry up quickly after the ECB meeting, which is widely expected to result in a quarter-point cut, ahead of tomorrow's holiday for much of Europe and North America. Many centers in Europe, including the UK are on holiday Monday …
The ECB Wants to Make it a Good Thursday The ECB Wants to Make it a Good Thursday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 17, 2025 Rating: 5
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