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Bearish Case for Dollar Thickens, but Bulls are Tough to Find

July 12, 2020
A surge in virus cases and record fatalities in several US states dampened the animal spirits at the end of last week.  However, few seem emotionally or materially prepared to resist the official efforts to generate favorable financial conditions to facilitate an economic recovery.  Most seem to be expecting more policy support to be forthcoming.�…
Bearish Case for Dollar Thickens, but Bulls are Tough to Find Bearish Case for Dollar Thickens, but Bulls are Tough to Find Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 12, 2020 Rating: 5
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Macro Dynamic Remains the Same but the Calendar gets Busy

July 11, 2020
The economic calendar and central bank meeting diaries are busier in the week ahead.  The highlights include three G7 central bank meetings (the Bank of Japan, the Bank Canada, and the European Central Bank), Chinese Q2 GDP, and the first look at US July survey data (Empire and Philadelphia Fed).  The US also reports June retail sales and industri…
Macro Dynamic Remains the Same but the Calendar gets Busy Macro Dynamic Remains the Same but the Calendar gets Busy Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 11, 2020 Rating: 5
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Surge in Coronavirus Spooks Investors as China Takes Profits

July 10, 2020
Overview: Record fatalities in a few US states, coupled with new travel restrictions in Italy and Australia, have given markets a pause ahead of the weekend.  News that two state-backed funds in China took profits snapped the eight-day advance in Shanghai at the same time as there is an attempt to rein in the use of margin.  Many of the largest ma…
Surge in Coronavirus Spooks Investors as China Takes Profits Surge in Coronavirus Spooks Investors as China Takes Profits Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 10, 2020 Rating: 5
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The Dollar is Sold through CNY7.0 as Chinese Equities Continue to Rally

July 09, 2020
Overview:   Investors continue to clamor into risk assets.  Led by Chinese shares, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index pushed higher for the third session this week to new five-month highs.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is trying to snap a two-day decline with the help of better than expected revenues for its largest tech company.  US shares are littl…
The Dollar is Sold through CNY7.0 as Chinese Equities Continue to Rally The Dollar is Sold through CNY7.0 as Chinese Equities Continue to Rally Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 09, 2020 Rating: 5
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Consolidation is the Flavor of the Day

July 08, 2020
Overview:   The S&P 500's longest advance this year was stopped seemingly as concern that the flare-up in the virus will slow the recovery.  The sell-off in airlines and hotels helped spur a broader bout of profit-taking.  Most Asia Pacific bourses advanced, led by the continued rally in Hong Kong and China.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 6…
Consolidation is the Flavor of the Day Consolidation is the Flavor of the Day Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 08, 2020 Rating: 5
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Fade the Dollar Gains

July 07, 2020
Overview: The S&P 500 rallied 1.6% yesterday to extend the streak to a fifth consecutive session, and the longest of the year and completed the negation of a bearish technical pattern.  However, the main feature today is a wave of profit-taking on risk assets.  Most equity markets moved lower in the Asia Pacific region. Chinese markets were a …
Fade the Dollar Gains Fade the Dollar Gains Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 07, 2020 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Dollar, Trade, and China on TDA Network

July 06, 2020
I began my career as a reporter on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, covering the currency futures and short-term interest rate futures for a news wire.   Among other things, I learned that often, the locals, people trading with their own money and wits, would take the opposite side of trades of the institutional players.  The institut…
Cool Video: Dollar, Trade, and China on TDA Network Cool Video:   Dollar, Trade, and China on TDA Network Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 06, 2020 Rating: 5
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New Record Number of Covid Cases Doesn't Curtail Appetite for Risk

July 06, 2020
Overview: A new daily high number of contagions globally has been reported, but the risk-appetites have been stoked.  Chinese stocks have been on a tear.  The Shanghai Composite rallied 5.7% today to bring the five-day advance to 13.6%.  Most other regional markets, including Hong Kong, rallied as well (3.8%).  Australia was the main exception, an…
New Record Number of Covid Cases Doesn't Curtail Appetite for Risk New Record Number of Covid Cases Doesn't Curtail Appetite for Risk Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 06, 2020 Rating: 5
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Are We on the Cusp of New Leg up in Risk Assets?

July 05, 2020
The consolidative/corrective phase in the capital markets appears to be drawing to a close.  The June PMI readings confirm a significant improvement is underway and that many high-income economies are on track to return to positive growth in Q3.  At the same time, the extent of government and central bank support is unprecedented. 
The dollar fell…
Are We on the Cusp of New Leg up in Risk Assets? Are We on the Cusp of New Leg up in Risk Assets?  Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 05, 2020 Rating: 5
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Macro Considerations in the Week Ahead

July 04, 2020
Risk-appetites and, by implication, the capital markets entered a new phase around June 5 when the US reported an unexpectedly strong jump in the May non-farm payrolls.  The risk assets had been rallying since mid-March in anticipation of an economic recovery and fueled by the massive liquidity provided by central banks and the spending plans of g…
Macro Considerations in the Week Ahead Macro Considerations in the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 04, 2020 Rating: 5
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