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How Durable of a Dollar Top?

May 26, 2019
After pushing higher in the first part of last week, the US dollar reversed lower and saw follow-through selling ahead of the weekend.  The reversal saw all the major currencies but the British pound gain on the greenback last week. Although the ineptitude of Prime Minister May has weighed on sterling, the immediate reaction to her departure saw t…
How Durable of a Dollar Top? How Durable of a Dollar Top?  Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 26, 2019 Rating: 5
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The Evolution of Three Issues are Key in the Week Ahead

May 25, 2019
As May winds down, the light economic calendar will allow investors to take their cues from the evolution of three disruptive forces--trade, Brexit and the US economy.  
With actions against Huawei and possibly a handful of Chinese surveillance equipment producers, the US raised the stakes. The retaliatory tariffs are effective on June 1, but Beij…
The Evolution of Three Issues are Key in the Week Ahead The Evolution of Three Issues are Key in the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 25, 2019 Rating: 5
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How UK Tories will Pick May's Successor

May 24, 2019
There is a two-step process to pick the next head of the Tory Party. The leader will be the Prime Minister and head a minority government. May’s minority government was supported by the Democrat Unionist Party from Northern Ireland. It is not clear that if a hard Brexiter succeeds May, the DUP will support it. This could trigger snap elections…
How UK Tories will Pick May's Successor How UK Tories will Pick May's Successor  Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 24, 2019 Rating: 5
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What Kind of Currency Bounce is This?

May 24, 2019
Overview:  It seems clear that the world's two largest economies slowed before the tariff truce ended.  Many investors believe that the tariff truce helped stop the equity market meltdown through most of Q4 18.  The net result of weaker stocks and lower bond yields seems reasonable.  The dollar is an anomaly. It began off strong yesterday.  Th…
What Kind of Currency Bounce is This? What Kind of Currency Bounce is This? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 24, 2019 Rating: 5
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Macro Summary: Japan and the Yen

May 23, 2019
The Japanese yen is the best performing currency so far here in May.  It has appreciated by roughly 1.25% against the dollar.  The same forces that lift it are also boosting the Swiss franc (mtd 1%).  The investment climate has turned in a decidedly less supportive direction following the end of the US-China tariff truce, heightened tensions betwe…
Macro Summary: Japan and the Yen Macro Summary:  Japan and the Yen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 23, 2019 Rating: 5
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Trade, Brexit, and Disappointing Flash PMIs Weigh on Global Markets

May 23, 2019
Overview:  The deterioration of the investment climate is spurring the sales of stocks and the buying of bonds. The dollar is firm.  China and the US appear to be digging as if the trade tensions will remain for some time and the breech is beginning to look too big for Trump and Xi to pull another rabbit out of the hat like they did at the end of …
Trade, Brexit, and Disappointing Flash PMIs Weigh on Global Markets Trade, Brexit, and Disappointing Flash PMIs Weigh on Global Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 23, 2019 Rating: 5
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Sterling Can't Get Out of Its Own Way

May 22, 2019
Overview:   There is a nervous calm in the capital markets.  Yesterday's rally in US shares failed to excite global investors.  China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan markets fell, while Japan was mixed. Foreign investors continued to sell Korean shares, but the Kospi rose.  European shares narrowly mixed, leaving the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 little changed.…
Sterling Can't Get Out of Its Own Way Sterling Can't Get Out of Its Own Way Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 22, 2019 Rating: 5
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Rare Earths may Provide Leverage

May 21, 2019
Many American observers argue that the trade imbalance gives the US an advantage in a trade war with China.  The US enjoys escalation dominance in tariffs because Chinese imports of US goods are so much less than the US imports of Chinese goods.  However, the focus on quantities may be misleading.  For example, the ability to find substitutes for …
Rare Earths may Provide Leverage Rare Earths may Provide Leverage Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 21, 2019 Rating: 5
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Equities Find Some Traction while the Dollar Firms

May 21, 2019
Overview:  Equities are paring some of their recent losses.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is posting its first back-to-back gain in a month, led by a more than 1% rally in China.  Heightened prospects for an Australian rate cut in a few weeks helped extend the run in the local equity market to a new record high.  European bourses are higher, with t…
Equities Find Some Traction while the Dollar Firms Equities Find Some Traction while the Dollar Firms Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 21, 2019 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: End of Tariff Truce Spurs Over Correction

May 20, 2019
The S&P 500 recorded a key reversal on May 1, and the end of the tariff truce ensured follow-through selling.  With today's early losses, it is off nearly 3.5% this month.   In my brief chat with Stuart Varney at Fox Business, I suggest that the stretched technical condition left the market vulnerable to a "buy in May and go away"…
Cool Video: End of Tariff Truce Spurs Over Correction Cool Video:  End of Tariff Truce Spurs Over Correction Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 20, 2019 Rating: 5
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Politics Overshadows Economics Today, but Japan's Economy Unexpectedly Expanded in Q1 Politics Overshadows Economics Today, but Japan's Economy Unexpectedly Expanded in Q1 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 20, 2019 Rating: 5
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