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Great Graphic: US Jobs by Region and State

July 31, 2014
This Great Graphic was created by ADP based on their surveys of the private sector.  There are only three US states that have not grown jobs over the past six month, Connecticut, Arizona and Utah.

The relatively heavier populated states should see larger swings in their numbers.  So it is not surprising that California and Texas lead in job creatio…
Great Graphic: US Jobs by Region and State Great Graphic: US Jobs by Region and State Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

July 31, 2014
 (from my colleague, Ilan Solot)

1) Argentina (selectively) defaulted
2) The Philippines central bank hiked its benchmark rate for the first time since mid-2011
3) Israel delivered a surprise rate cut
4) Russia delivered a surprise rate hike; EU and US surprised with coordinated sanctions
5) The Brazilian central bank began backdoor easing
6) Kore…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Dissents at the Federal Reserve

July 31, 2014
This Great Graphic was tweeted by Phil Izzo and was taken from the Federal Reserve Board.  It tracks the dissents at the Federal Reserve.  What is striking are the numerous dissents at both ends of the time line, but few in the middle, which captures the so-called bubble years.   The shaded area on the far right is the era of unconventional policy…
Great Graphic: Dissents at the Federal Reserve Great Graphic: Dissents at the Federal Reserve Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2014 Rating: 5
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Dollar Remains Firm, Equities Slide

July 31, 2014
There have been important developments over the past 24 hours, and the net response has been a generally firmer US dollar and weaker equity markets.  Bond yields are mixed, but US Treasury yields saw their biggest single day rise yesterday this year.  Asia followed suit, but European bond yields are mostly lower.  
There were three important signa…
Dollar Remains Firm, Equities Slide Dollar Remains Firm, Equities Slide Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: ECB's Bank Lending Survey Results

July 30, 2014
The ECB reported its Q2 bank lending survey results today and there was much good news. Banks eased their lending standards for the first time since in seven years and the net land demand improved in all categories. Even though the ECB acknowledged that lending standards remain "relatively tight", the modest relaxation is a welcomed de…
Great Graphic: ECB's Bank Lending Survey Results Great Graphic: ECB's Bank Lending Survey Results Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2014 Rating: 5
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US GDP Lifts Dollar and Stocks

July 30, 2014
The US dollar is extending its gains in response to the strong US GDP figures.  There are four elements of the report to note.  First, the economy expanded by 4.0% in Q2, well above consensus expectations.  Second, Q1 was revised to show a 2.1% contraction rather than 2.9%.  Third, personal consumption improved to 2.5% from a revised 1.2% pace in …
US GDP Lifts Dollar and Stocks US GDP Lifts Dollar and Stocks Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2014 Rating: 5
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US Alphabet Soup Day: ADP, GDP, and FOMC

July 30, 2014
The US dollar is firm ahead of what promises to be an eventful North American session. The ADP steals much of the thunder once reserved from the monthly non-farm payrolls report. The US created a net 1.4 mln jobs in H1, and the streak of 200k+ monthly gains in non-farm payrolls is expected to continue into July's report.
The first estimate o…
US Alphabet Soup Day: ADP, GDP, and FOMC US Alphabet Soup Day: ADP, GDP, and FOMC Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2014 Rating: 5
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Four Recent Posts about the Dollar and its Rivals

July 30, 2014
Does the crisis, the rise of China or the BRICS, represent a challenge to US in general and the role of the dollar in particular?  I have posted four essays recently that were explored a vexing issue.   
I think a dispassionate look at the evidence suggests much of the claims have been exaggerated, and not by the countries themselves, but by econom…
Four Recent Posts about the Dollar and its Rivals Four Recent Posts about the Dollar and its Rivals Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2014 Rating: 5
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The Dollar and Yuan: No Contest...yet

July 29, 2014
James Kynge writing in the Financial Times in early June (June 6, "US warming to the redback from China trade") that "China's renminbi is rapidly displacing the dollar as a trading currency not only in Asia and Europe but now also in the US home market." Many observes seem to agree.  Yet the data he cited and subsequent da…
The Dollar and Yuan: No Contest...yet The Dollar and Yuan: No Contest...yet Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 29, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic : Euro Area Inflation--When the Rubber hits the Road

July 29, 2014
The adjustment in the periphery of Europe has two dimensions.  The first, which has dominated developments, was prices.  One way to boost competitiveness is for euro area member to have lower inflation than Germany. 
The second involved the real economy and structural reforms raise the potential growth rates.  The former appears nearly exhausted, w…
Great Graphic : Euro Area Inflation--When the Rubber hits the Road Great Graphic : Euro Area Inflation--When the Rubber hits the Road Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 29, 2014 Rating: 5
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FX: Stll Waiting

July 29, 2014
To say that the foreign exchange market is quiet is to bemoan the obvious.  What is particularly striking is that the euro's range yesterday may have been among the smallest and today is matching it, thus far.   According to Bloomberg data, yesterday's range was 17 ticks.  
Looking at the volatility implied by the options market exaggerate…
FX: Stll Waiting FX: Stll Waiting Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 29, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Spot the Secular Stagnation

July 28, 2014
This Great Graphic was tweeted by the Financial Acrobat.   The charts show US and euro area GDP in log charts that also plot the pre-crisis trend.

It is clear that the crisis has thrown the US off its prior path, but it now appears to be on a parallel path, that is lower.  

Growth in the euro area has also broken down.  It has yet to initiate a new …
Great Graphic: Spot the Secular Stagnation Great Graphic: Spot the Secular Stagnation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 28, 2014 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: FX and Energy on CNBC Squawk Box

July 28, 2014
This Cool Video is a clip from my appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning.  I offered a nuanced view, suggesting that while the dollar appears to be at a turning point, unless US yields find better traction, it is difficult to be too bullish on the dollar. 


Cool Video: FX and Energy on CNBC Squawk Box Cool Video: FX and Energy on CNBC Squawk Box Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 28, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets Preview: The Week Ahead

July 28, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
This should not be a very eventful week for emerging markets. Market focus will remain split between the big events in the US (FOMC and payrolls data) as well as on the myriad of geopolitical risks. Still, it is worth highlighting that the stabilization of the Chinese economy is now being reflected i…
Emerging Markets Preview: The Week Ahead Emerging Markets Preview: The Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 28, 2014 Rating: 5
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Busy Week Starts Quietly

July 28, 2014
This is an eventful week, but the economic calendar starts slowly.  The FOMC meeting, first look at Q1 US GDP and the US jobs report, are the highlights.    The capital markets are also off to a slow start.  The US dollar is narrowly mixed.  Against most of the major currencies, the greenback has been confined to about a 15 tick range. 
Equity mar…
Busy Week Starts Quietly Busy Week Starts Quietly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 28, 2014 Rating: 5
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